Nikita Grebyonkin has the chance to be one of the biggest Toronto Maple Leafs draft steals in recent memory. The 6’2″, 192 lbs winger was taken as an over-ager in the 2022 NHL Draft, 135th overall by the Leafs, but has played two incredibly impressive KHL seasons since.
At #4 on our prospect ranking, Grebyonkin finds himself behind only three top-40 picks.
Now, heading into his age 21 season, Grebyonkin will get to prove himself on North American ice for the first time, on track to be a Toronto Marlies regular in 2024–25.
Let’s look closer at the winger’s dynamic game, and maybe see why he wasn’t drafted until 2022.
Strengths/weaknesses
Easily, Grebyonkin’s greatest ability is his offensive playmaking. He loves carrying the puck, able to dictate play himself by slowing down, surveying the ice, and finding open teammates. He plays well on the rush and in the cycle, using his frame to protect the puck from defenders and find creative ways to get the puck to dangerous areas.
This offensive skill made Grebyonkin the third-highest-scoring 20-year-old in the KHL last season.
His drive to win possession is another asset, as Grebyonkin works relentlessly to win puck battles and pick opponents’ pockets. He has a great motor, something Leafs fans will appreciate when he gets his shot in the NHL.
Grebyonkin’s shot isn’t great, but he charges the net with the puck very well and finds his spots. He’s definitely more of a playmaker, but knows when to take it himself.
He has very little fear playing with the puck, and has silky hands to make it work. Especially off the rush, he challenges defenders constantly, attempting dekes rather than dumping pucks in. For Grebyonkin, this works, as his hands and speed take blueliners by surprise.
But while he’s fast, Grebyonkin’s skating looks unconventional. His footwork isn’t great, and he looks pretty wobbly with the puck.
Defensively, he’s most definitely not the greatest. But there’s something to be said for a 21-year-old playing nearly 15 minutes a night in the KHL playoffs like Grebyonkin did (for a Gagarin Cup winner, no less). Once again, he’ll need to learn to use his body more effectively, but he has the stick skills to win important battles and control breakouts.
Production
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–20 | Metallurg Magnitogorsk U17″C” | Russia U17 | 30 | 18 | 28 | 46 |
| 2020–21 | Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk | MHL | 54 | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| 2021–22 | Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk”A” | MHL | 58 | 17 | 47 | 64 |
| 2022–23 | Amur Khabarovsk | KHL | 45 | 9 | 17 | 26 |
| 2022–23 | Metallurg Magnitogorsk | KHL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023–24 | Metallurg Magnitogorsk | KHL | 67 | 19 | 22 | 41 |
As mentioned, Grebyonkin was the third highest-producing U21 in the KHL last season. He finished second on his team in scoring during the year, and has seen a steady increase in production as he’s moved up the ranks of Russian hockey.
It shouldn’t be forgotten the KHL is a much lower-scoring league than the NHL, and 41 points in 67 games is mighty impressive, especially for a 20-year-old.
Watching Grebyonkin’s production in the AHL next season will be fascinating. If he can continue his scoring ability, and establish himself as a leader of the Marlies offence, he’ll be looking like an absolute steal by the Leafs.
Next steps
Grebyonkin’s game will need work to be as productive on North American ice, especially his skating. When the game gets faster, Grebyonkin might have trouble using just his hands to fend defenders off, and will need to improve his stride as well as tap into a more physical game.
More than just production, Grebyonkin needs to establish himself as a trustworthy forward for the Marlies. He’s shown leadership before, earning an assistant captain role on his MHL team, which hopefully continues in North America.
He could also look to be more of a net-front presence, especially with his size. He has the physical tools to be an absolute pest around the net, but prefers to stay around the perimeter for now. He’s incredible there, and shouldn’t change his game plan with the puck, but would be more useful screening or battling for rebounds in the offensive zone sometimes.
There’s no point in rushing Grebyonkin, but challenging him to establish himself could yield impressive results. There’s a chance he will become a leader and producer on the Marlies very quickly.
2024–25 Projection
Grebyonkin will play in North America for the first time in his professional career this upcoming season, and has the chance to really impress the Leafs front office with a quick start.
He won’t make the Leafs, especially with their deep forward core, but could be in line for a call-up sooner rather than later if he continues producing in the AHL.
More realistically, Grebyonkin should aim for a great training camp, replicating Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten’s extended stays last year, and get the coaching staff and front office comfortable with him.
His drive to compete will always garner attention, but establishing himself as a physical force capable of playing an NHL-style game will be key.
It will most likely take a couple of seasons with the Marlies to fine-tune Grebyonkin’s game, but the skills are there. Hopefully, he becomes a vital part of the AHL team’s forward core this season, aiming for a shot at the Maple Leafs middle-six in 2025–26 or the year after.
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