The Leafs captain, John Tavares, is now in the final year of his contract, one of the bigger free agency acquisitions of the past decade. Once the deal was signed expectations of the Leafs rose sharply, altering the trajectory of the organization. Confidence was high, his contract was thought to be good value until the later years of the deal.
Looking back on the deal brings little solace. Though Tavares has continued to produce he has seen his age-related decline commence. The Leafs have only a single playoff series win to show to this point. Rightly or wrongly, Tavares has become more criticized across Leafs Nation, the burdens of expectations and reputations, of captaincy and cap hit, and most of all playoff shortcomings weighing heavily.
While many fans might have grown tired of the stoic Tavares, perhaps even eager for a change of scenery, his contract status presents a new opportunity. To an extent, the very notion of the “core four” era Leafs is reaching an inflection point. Will this be Tavares’ last season as captain? Or even as a member of the Leafs? Or is this a chance for Tavares to lead the Leafs to a brighter era? Let’s take a look at Tavares and how he might change the Leafs vector once more.
Stats
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
| 2005-06 | Oshawa Generals | OHL | 65 | 45 | 32 | 77 |
| 2006-07 | Oshawa Generals | OHL | 67 | 72 | 62 | 134 |
| 2007-08 | Oshawa Generals | OHL | 59 | 40 | 78 | 118 |
| 2008-09 | Oshawa Generals | OHL | 32 | 26 | 28 | 54 |
| 2008-09 | London Knights | OHL | 24 | 32 | 18 | 50 |
| 2009-10 | New York Islanders | NHL | 82 | 24 | 30 | 54 |
| 2010-11 | New York Islanders | NHL | 79 | 29 | 38 | 67 |
| 2011-12 | New York Islanders | NHL | 82 | 31 | 50 | 81 |
| 2012-13 | Bern SC | Swiss-A | 28 | 17 | 25 | 42 |
| 2012-13 | New York Islanders | NHL | 48 | 28 | 19 | 47 |
| 2013-14 | New York Islanders | NHL | 59 | 24 | 42 | 66 |
| 2014-15 | New York Islanders | NHL | 82 | 38 | 48 | 86 |
| 2015-16 | New York Islanders | NHL | 78 | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| 2016-17 | New York Islanders | NHL | 77 | 28 | 38 | 66 |
| 2017-18 | New York Islanders | NHL | 82 | 37 | 47 | 84 |
| 2018-19 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 82 | 47 | 41 | 88 |
| 2019-20 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 63 | 26 | 34 | 60 |
| 2020-21 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 56 | 19 | 31 | 50 |
| 2021-22 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 79 | 27 | 49 | 76 |
| 2022-23 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 80 | 36 | 44 | 80 |
| 2023-24 | Toronto Maple Leafs | NHL | 80 | 29 | 36 | 65 |
History
An extremely accomplished player, it would take too long to review Tavares’ career in full. Once an exceptional status phenom in the OHL, Tavares lived up to the hype on a personal level. Eventually going first overall in the 2009 NHL Draft, Tavares was immediately a staple of the New York Islanders, eventually becoming their captain. Between all-star appearances, elite-level production, and a strong international career, Tavares seemed to have it all except for NHL team success.
Unfortunately, even after the dramatic UFA decision to come to Toronto, Tavares has continued this trend. Through his career Tavares has won two playoff series, scoring the series-clinching goal both times. While his scoring has been fairly consistent, league scoring has increased.
For the first time, Tavares has begun to out-earn his play, tinting the analysis of his contributions. His 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games last season represent a dip from the point-per-game pace he maintained through the 12 seasons prior, reflecting his rookie and sophomore NHL campaigns. As the focus of much analysis, the cap dollar per point is worrisome. So too was the playoff performance, with just two points in the Leafs seven games.
On the other hand, Tavares was able to dominate the World Championships. While it is not the NHL, this performance showed that Tavares might have more to give, standing out amongst high-level peers. Perhaps a new perspective behind the bench, a new system, or new roles and linemates can help Tavares rekindle some effectiveness.
In the final year of his deal, Tavares and the Leafs are coming to an interesting crossroads. Clearly Tavares wanted to come to Toronto, something that the Leafs might try to use to their advantage during extension talks. Some fans might be hoping the Leafs move on from Tavares. Some might feel that Tavares should abdicate his captaincy, one way or another. Discord and ambivalence, a tension surrounding it all, Tavares and the Leafs will have a chance to make consequential decisions in the months ahead.
Profile
As the game grows faster and he grows older, Tavares’ lack of speed is a noticeable shortcoming. This means Tavares is becoming less effective in transition, particularly as a puck carrier. In general, this also results in less time with the puck, forcing Tavares to become more of a one-touch attacker.
Thankfully, Tavares is able to support this play style because of his effectiveness in tight quarters. Tavares plays a heavy game, and can win battles along the boards and around the net. Thanks to his overall quality Tavares can make plays with the puck in traffic, the vision to see opportunities and the skills to execute.
Unfortunately, Tavares lacks some snarl. Although he is deft and firm in winning puck battles, his lack of ferocity might limit his abilities as a true net-front scorer. Tavares has all the skills to excel, and one would think the perfect opportunity to do so on a skilled Leafs power play, but this has not been the case. Tavares has the skill and the shot to operate from further out, yet with declining speed he might be forced to move closer to the net to find goals. There is a good chance that most of his offence will come from cycles or in-zone attacking rather than off of the rush.
Tavares does have dimension and detail to his game. A capable faceoff resume aside, Tavares can use his skill set as an effective in-zone defender. At times Tavares was used for tough defensive assignments, a testament to his competitiveness all over the ice. That being said, Tavares will not be a fixture of the Selke Trophy race, or even the Leafs penalty kill.
Fit
Over his time with the Leafs, Tavares has been with either Mitch Marner or William Nylander, a second fiddle to Auston Matthews’ top billing. Tavares seemed to appreciate having Bobby McMann on his wing last season, as McMann’s speed, physicality, and simple but effective forechecking were a good fit. While it makes sense to pair Tavares with a puck-dominant transition winger, Tavares was fantastic on lines that preferred to generate opportunities through forechecking pressure rather than carrying the puck.
In particular, his line with McMann and Calle Jarnkrok suffocated opposing attacks during their time together. On the other hand, Tavares might find some chemistry with Max Domi or Pontus Holmberg as wingers. This does show that Tavares is still a well-rounded enough player to be impactful in many contexts and varying linemates. Even a strong season of 30+ goals and 70+ points might only be enough for Tavares to finish third or fourth on the Leafs in those categories.
In effect, the coming season will set the table for the decisions that will shape the back third or so of Tavares’ career. As he ages, will Tavares be better served as a net front scorer or a play-driving two-way forward? Given the importance of centres, the hope might be for the latter, though to an extent Tavares might be the Leafs best option to play alongside Matthews and Marner.
Of course, if the Leafs power play changes in any significant way it will impact Tavares. Overall there has been production, but unfortunately not during the playoffs. This means that expecting a huge boost to Tavares’ production might be a bit ambitious. Instead, changes might force Tavares off of the top unit, say if Mitch Marner moves to the bumper position and Matthew Knies is preferred as the PP1 net front option.
Future
Regardless, how much Tavares costs will be a deciding factor on how he fits into the future. Thematically and symbolically, there is an angle to a self-sacrifice on his part to help the Leafs make an organizational statement. Will he take less to help the team win? This might help pave a path to the future where other Leafs stars, namely Matthews, Nylander, or Marner do something similar.
Relinquishing the captaincy would be a much less pragmatic gesture, but might well undermine itself. The symbol of the captaincy adds weight to the standards set by Tavares, at least in theory, but so does his play. Accepting an aggressively team-friendly deal, or a demotion to different areas of the lineup, means more if Tavares is the captain, but especially if he is still an impactful player.
In practice or in concept, there is reason to doubt if the Leafs “core four” can ever succeed. Some might point to their cap hits, their play styles, their positions, their personalities, and their playoff performances. Others might point to the Leafs ability to build the team around them to support them. Either way, many of the recent Stanley Cup winners have done so under a perceived salary sacrifice by their star players. While the Leafs star players are just as good, and perhaps even worth their cap hits, monetary statements from the best players are a deciding factor in shaping a team’s culture.
We might be in the waning hours of Tavares’ chance to make such a statement for the team. Supposing that Marner re-signs for something between Matthews’ and Nylander’s cap hits, Tavares can render the “core four” from its most expensive (by cap percentage, this coming season) to its least expensive next season if he takes less than Nylander’s prior ~$7 million cap hit. Naturally, a more dramatic decrease would only amplify this reality.
Steven Stamkos might once again be an important indicator. Stamkos significantly outproduced Tavares last season, but did so as a winger and as a multiple-time Cup winner. The Tampa Bay Lightning insinuated that Stamkos would have to take a dramatic pay cut to remain with the team. He did not, instead taking a lucrative four-year, $8M cap hit. While it is difficult for the Lightning to lose their long-term captain, it did offer them the opportunity to add Jake Guentzel instead.
It might even make more sense for the Leafs to take a similar hardline stance with Tavares, allowing the Leafs to fundamentally change the investment portfolio of the roster’s talent. Whatever Tavares decides to do, the Leafs will have the opportunity to make a statement of their own. It makes a lot more sense for the Leafs to commit to a much younger Marner at a less-than-ideal contract and take a more hardline stance with Tavares than it does the other way around.
It would benefit the Leafs to make the case in the upcoming Tavares negotiations an emotional one. In a sense, they might offer the chance for a revived adoration of his fanbase, the chance to further his legacy as both a Leaf and as an NHLer. In reality, there will be other, more complex factors and emotions at play. Tavares has every right to exercise his options and prioritize himself, but the Leafs should be happy to be firm in their negotiations.
