Looking at how Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson will help the Toronto Maple Leafs

The offseason is most often a time of optimism, as fans across the league stare at their roster through rose-coloured glasses. Despite this, the Leafs are met by fans with some hesitation, the core four returning at their most expensive, the roster largely unchanged.

Anthony Stolarz, and a healthy Matt Murray, should be at least a lateral move in net. The group up front will largely be unchanged, banking instead on some internal development for better play. 

The biggest changes have come on the blueline, where the Leafs have been weakest at throughout the Auston Matthews era. It might not have been the complete overhaul that some thought necessary, but the Leafs did make some moves that could pay off.

There have been some interesting depth adds, like Philippe Myers and Nicholas Mattinen, as well as some hope that younger players will emerge as NHLers, like Topi Niemela and Mikko Kokkonen. 

Far more impactful are the additions of a couple veteran defencemen that GM Brad Treliving is familiar with, Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. While the duo certainly bring experience and reputation, there is a lot of reason to think that they can help the team reach a new level.

Let’s take a look at the stats and storylines and what they might suggest for the Leafs future. 

League stats 

While the only stat that truly counts is wins, others are useful for contextualizing results. Expected goals is a newer stat, often debated with regard to how effective or accurate it is. It is an effective guideline for quantifying team performance, as evidenced by the 2023–24 season’s final four teams constituting four of the top five teams by five on five expected goals percentage over the regular season. 

Team	Goals %	Goals For Per 60	Goals Against Per 60	Expected Goals For Per 60	Expected Goals Against Per 60	xGoals %
1 EDM	55.91%	2.87	2.26	3.21	2.31	58.17%
2 CAR	53.65%	2.52	2.17	2.78	2.19	55.97%
3 LAK	53.57%	2.47	2.14	2.73	2.28	54.51%
4 DAL	54.65%	2.84	2.36	2.65	2.24	54.24%
5 FLA	56.36%	2.41	1.86	2.66	2.27	53.99%
6 NSH	51.85%	2.55	2.37	2.79	2.47	52.94%
7 VAN	57.54%	2.83	2.09	2.54	2.31	52.25%
8 COL	53.85%	2.96	2.54	2.81	2.59	52.16%
9 PHI	47.67%	2.47	2.71	2.51	2.33	51.91%
10 NJD	48.90%	2.66	2.79	2.8	2.6	51.82%
11 VGK	51.92%	2.59	2.4	2.59	2.44	51.54%
12 PIT	51%	2.68	2.58	2.8	2.64	51.50%
13 WPG	59.67%	2.66	1.79	2.52	2.39	51.36%
14 TOR	54.05%	2.93	2.49	2.71	2.6	51.13%
15 SEA	49.66%	2.11	2.14	2.3	2.22	50.97%
16 MIN	49.38%	2.41	2.47	2.32	2.23	50.94%
17 NYI	51.23%	2.41	2.29	2.5	2.5	49.97%
18 BOS	56.59%	2.63	2.02	2.51	2.51	49.94%
19 TBL	47.51%	2.56	2.82	2.47	2.48	49.74%
20 CGY	47.85%	2.5	2.73	2.47	2.5	49.68%
21 NYR	50.15%	2.46	2.45	2.41	2.48	49.27%
22 OTT	45.79%	2.46	2.91	2.43	2.5	49.17%
23 ARI	50%	2.59	2.59	2.44	2.6	48.42%
24 BUF	52.40%	2.59	2.36	2.49	2.68	48.11%
25 WSH	44.97%	2.09	2.56	2.32	2.57	47.43%
26 ANA	42.19%	1.97	2.69	2.23	2.54	46.77%
27 MTL	49.08%	2.38	2.47	2.34	2.7	46.51%
28 DET	48.51%	2.68	2.85	2.17	2.56	45.93%
29 CBJ	47.17%	2.57	2.88	2.42	2.95	45.08%
30 STL	47.48%	2.23	2.47	2.21	2.78	44.30%
31 CHI	36.88%	1.75	3	2.09	2.83	42.57%
32 SJS	34.49%	1.75	3.33	2.16	3.06	41.35%

As shown above (per MoneyPuck), the Leafs ranked 14th in the league by this metric, caught closer to the middle of the puck than the league’s elite. Their offensive performance, or expected goals for per 60, was in line with the league’s elite, but their defensive performance was not. In fact, the Leafs expected goals against per 60 was worse than several non-playoff teams. Again, this stat is not a catch-all, but it is clear that the Leafs will need to improve here if they wish to achieve their ultimate goal. 

Leafs 2023–24 pairings

Rank	Line	Minutes	Games	xGoals For Per 60 Minutes	xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes	xGoals %
1	Brodie-Benoit	52	44	3	1.15	72.20%
2	Giordano-Timmins	58.2	6	3.51	2.06	63%
3	Mccabe-Liljegren	204.9	47	3.46	2.2	61.10%
4	Rielly-Liljegren	119.5	46	3.37	2.16	60.90%
5	Rielly-Lagesson	53.5	23	3.81	2.58	59.60%
6	Benoit-Timmins	134	23	2.86	2.15	57.10%
7	Giordano-Liljegren	207.8	24	2.97	2.25	56.90%
8	Benoit-Lagesson	104.6	21	1.66	1.32	55.80%
9	Mccabe-Giordano	103.4	32	3.37	2.79	54.70%
10	Rielly-Lyubushkin	160.5	14	2.65	2.24	54.20%
11	Rielly-Mccabe	85.1	58	2.68	2.54	51.40%
12	Brodie-Liljegren	178.7	38	2.62	2.52	51%
13	Mccabe-Benoit	523.1	57	2.55	2.49	50.60%
14	Mccabe-Lagesson	79.4	18	2.42	2.42	50%
15	Brodie-Giordano	62.8	34	2.87	2.96	49.20%
16	Rielly-Brodie	790	68	2.63	2.95	47.10%
17	Edmundson-Liljegren	94.1	8	2.93	3.32	46.90%
18	Giordano-Klingberg	81.9	14	2.64	3.01	46.80%
19	Brodie-Lyubushkin	79.2	12	2.88	3.33	46.30%
20	Brodie-Mccabe	162.9	60	1.84	2.73	40.30%
21	Rielly-Benoit	51.6	46	1.63	4.77	25.50%

Taking a look at these expected goals stats (minimum 50 minutes at five on five) for Leafs defence pairings last season, a few trends reveal themselves. The Leafs injuries and lineup juggling saw them use a lot of different combinations on the back end. T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano are no longer on the team, and though they had some good results, these were circumstantial. Both were on pairings that performed poorly as well. 

Of the Leafs most used pairings, few inspire much confidence. The Leafs cobbled together some decent overall play from their group, but lacked enough quality defencemen for the blueline to help drive expected goals results. This might be a perfect encapsulation of the Leafs roster issues, at least on paper. The need for at least two quality, top four defencemen was clear, but the resources available to allocate to rectifying the issue were limited. It is, or at least it was, a small needle to thread. 

Did the Leafs pull it off in signing Ekman-Larsson and Tanev? Looking deeper into their results last season might provide some hope.

Ekman-Larsson 

Rank	Line	Minutes	Games	xGoals For Per 60 Minutes	xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes	xGoals %
1	Ekman-Larsson-Ekblad	62.1	41	5.12	2.71	65.40%
2	Forsling-Montour	128.3	54	3.6	1.96	64.70%
3	Ekman-Larsson-Montour	110.3	56	2.61	1.52	63.20%
4	Forsling-Kulikov	60.2	54	3.19	1.9	62.70%
5	Forsling-Ekblad	679.6	50	3.05	2.13	58.90%
6	Ekman-Larsson-Kulikov	465.1	58	2.74	2.27	54.60%
7	Kulikov-Mikkola	349.4	66	2.87	2.4	54.40%
8	Forsling-Ekman-Larsson	381.2	54	2.75	2.35	54%
9	Forsling-Mikkola	64	62	2.16	1.97	52.30%
10	Mikkola-Montour	817.6	66	2.48	2.32	51.70%
11	Mahura-Balinskis	159.8	19	1.84	1.88	49.50%
12	Mikkola-Balinskis	75.4	21	2.31	2.71	46%
13	Kulikov-Mahura	86.6	18	1.39	2.22	38.50%

These are extremely encouraging results from Ekman-Larsson. Of course, the Panthers won the Stanley Cup, a testament to all their players. Though Ekman-Larsson was on the third pairing for most of the season, he was able to post even better results when pinching up the lineup. Least impressive were his results with Gustav Forsling, though this comes with the burden of Ekman-Larsson playing on his weak side. Meanwhile, on his strong side with Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad, Ekman-Larsson’s results were outstanding. 

Granted, his offensive contributions seem to outweigh his defensive contributions, but Ekman-Larsson fared well on both sides of the puck. Overall, these numbers suggest that Ekman-Larsson will help the Leafs control the scoring chance battle more often than not. 

From a narrative standpoint, there is hope that Ekman-Larsson can repeat these results. Once thought of as one of the league’s premier defencemen, and an NHL captain, Ekman-Larsson’s career and reputation seemed to wane through years of bad teams and injury. Carrying an expensive cap hit did him no favours. At the time the Vancouver Canucks acquired him eyebrows were already raised, ending with a buyout.

All that changed last season as Ekman-Larsson joined the Panthers with a clean bill of health. His skating, one of his greatest assets, had been hampered. Refreshed and part of the best team he had ever been on, Ekman-Larsson delivered a vintage performance, stepping up amidst early-season injuries and reasserting himself as a positive contributor. While he may not be the bonafide top pairing defenceman of his younger days, Ekman-Larsson is clearly capable of handling a regular role on an elite team. 

Tanev

Tanev was traded in-season from the Calgary Flames to the Dallas Stars. Let’s take a look at the results from both teams.

Rank	Line	Minutes	Games	xGoals For Per 60 Minutes	xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes	xGoals %
1	Gilbert-Tanev	65	19	2.12	1.2	63.90%
2	Zadorov-Desimone	94.3	8	3.31	2.48	57.10%
3	Hanifin-Tanev	743.4	55	2.62	2.21	54.20%
4	Zadorov-Weegar	110.3	19	2.39	2.07	53.70%
5	Weegar-Miromanov	296	19	2.64	2.29	53.50%
6	Gilbert-Desimone	81.8	8	2.35	2.35	50%
7	Weegar-Andersson	757.5	74	2.64	2.83	48.30%
8	Okhotiuk-Pachal	71.7	9	2.26	2.51	47.40%
9	Kylington-Pachal	215.8	29	2.34	2.64	46.90%
10	Hanifin-Andersson	211.2	57	2.22	2.56	46.40%
11	Kylington-Andersson	242.8	30	2.69	3.16	46%
12	Oesterle-Weegar	79	14	2.2	2.66	45.30%
13	Hanifin-Weegar	101.2	42	2.37	3.38	41.20%
14	Zadorov-Gilbert	69.5	7	1.9	2.85	40%
15	Oesterle-Gilbert	56.7	9	1.8	2.97	37.80%
16	Oesterle-Desimone	64.1	7	1.59	2.72	37%

First, Tanev was clearly a force for the Flames, anchoring whichever pairing he was on to strong results. Not only did Tanev produce some of the best results on the team, but was not a part of any pairing that performed poorly. Often Tanev has brought the best out of his defence partners, his defensive impact significant enough to help them author career years. 

Rank	Line	Minutes	Games	xGoals For Per 60 Minutes	xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes	xGoals %
1	Lindell-Tanev	207.7	19	2.89	1.42	67.10%
2	Harley-Lindell	89.5	59	4.83	2.55	65.50%
3	Heiskanen-Harley	605	67	3.18	1.99	61.50%
4	Heiskanen-Lindell	90	58	3	2.07	59.20%
5	Heiskanen-Suter	575.9	65	2.77	2.16	56.20%
6	Suter-Hanley	100.7	27	2.27	1.85	55.10%
7	Suter-Tanev	56.8	17	2.43	2.01	54.80%
8	Suter-Lundkvist	305.1	44	2.73	2.42	53.10%
9	Lindell-Hakanp	603.8	61	2.52	2.25	52.90%
10	Harley-Hanley	216.9	24	2.57	2.3	52.80%
11	Harley-Lundkvist	182	49	2.6	2.54	50.60%
12	Lindell-Suter	127.9	61	1.97	2.11	48.30%
13	Lindell-Lundkvist	182.7	45	2.36	2.76	46.20%
14	Suter-Hakanp	129.5	54	1.71	2.04	45.70%
15	Harley-Suter	110.7	70	2.44	3.25	42.90%
16	Harley-Hakanp	188.2	50	1.79	2.52	41.50%

Again, on the Stars Tanev was part of the top-performing pairing, especially in producing strong defensive results. Even when paired with another defensively-minded player in Esa Lindell, Tanev was fantastic, showing off his ability as a breakout passer and a conduit of team offence. 

Lindell and Tanev would go on to shut down the likes of Jack Eichel and Nathan MacKinnon in the playoffs, helping the Stars to a Western Conference Final appearance. It should be noted that Tanev was on the best versions of the Flames and Stars, just as it is true that he was a key piece in their relative strength. 

From a narrative standpoint, Tanev said himself that 2023–24 was his best as a professional. Despite his age, Tanev is still one of the premier shutdown defencemen in the league. 

Big picture

Both Ekman-Larsson and Tanev were effective last season, and would be big upgrades to the Leafs if they can replicate those results. However, both are older and a decline is imminent. Ekman-Larsson will be 37 when his four-year deal ends, Tanev, 41 when his six-year deal ends. By the end of their deals, they will not be as good as they were last season, if they are playing at all. 

The term on each deal is risky, but certainly helped keep the cap hits lower. There is some expectation that both will finish their contracts on LTIR, especially Tanev given his physically demanding style of play. This is a bridge that the Leafs will have to cross at some point, but for now, they have infused their blueline at a reasonable price. 

Ekman-Larsson and Tanev should be a big help to the Leafs blueline next season, and could help the team ice the best top four that the team has had in the Matthews era. This should be enough for the Leafs to assert themselves as a much stronger possession team. The Leafs will need some lineup synergy to develop, some luck that Ekman-Larsson and Tanev continue to age gracefully, and some younger players to step up in the years to come to offset their ageing blueline. For the time being, the Leafs have a shot at a much improved unit, making life easier for the Leafs forwards and goalies.