After handing the captaincy off to Auston Matthews, John Tavares’ time with the Toronto Maple Leafs is hitting an interesting inflection point. There’s only a year left on his contract, and with the team clearly wanting to start a new “era” with Matthews at the lead, there are a few scenarios with Tavares that could play out.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tavares walk this offseason, starting a new chapter with a new team next year. His play has dipped, and if the Leafs don’t feel comfortable handing him a big sum of money, he may be priced out of Toronto.
But with young kids growing up in the city, and Tavares’ desire to come here in free agency back in 2018, he may want to play the rest of his career in blue and white.
Even though he isn’t the player he used to be, the Maple Leafs should absolutely try to lock him up on a cheap, team-friendly deal. Let’s explore why.
He is still productive
Until last season, Tavares was basically a point-per-game guy in Toronto. He’s never been the fastest, but his shot and IQ have let him produce consistent results for over a decade.
And while last year was easily his worst, he still played like a great second-line centre, putting up 29 goals (and should have had more) and 65 points. Yes, his foot speed isn’t great, and yes, his decline will probably continue, but there’s no doubt Tavares is still a capable top-six forward with the ability to score.
He’s also one of the best faceoff guys in the entire league, a very underrated but important part of the game. In all situations, control is key. And controlling the puck off the draw is always a positive.
If the price is right, and it will need to be for him to come back, there is still a ton of value to be had with Tavares. He won’t be leading the charge anymore, but he can command a second line perfectly well. It would be a blessing for the Leafs to have him locked up for the next few years in that role.
The chance for a bounce back?
Although Tavares still scored 29 times last year, it was his unluckiest in terms of shooting percentage in his whole career.
At 2.4% below his career rate, and an even bigger drop from the year before, it’s fair to say Tavares was a bit snake-bitten last year. With some more puck luck, a more defined role, and less pressure to play up to his contract, Tavares will likely score more next year.
This was obvious when watching, too, as there were long stretches where Tavares was visibly frustrated he wasn’t burying pucks he normally would. And while his speed definitely declined last season, it didn’t affect his ability to find room in the slot to wire pucks. He simply wasn’t putting his Grade-A chances in, which is something that won’t happen again.
Locking up Tavares now, before a bounce-back season, makes too much sense. Get him for as cheap as you can, and have the second line solidified for the next few years. Even if Tavares has to move to the wing eventually, if he comes in cheap enough, the contract will still be valuable.
There’s no reason to believe he wants to be anywhere else
When Tavares signed with the Leafs, he chose his hometown team over better offers elsewhere. He became the captain of his favourite franchise growing up, and has raised his kids exactly where he wanted to.
There’s no reason to believe he wants to leave, and with him gracefully handing off the captaincy, it seems he wants to put the team first.
So assuming he’ll take a bit of a discount isn’t too big of a reach.
Any contract for Tavares should start below $5M, and shouldn’t be too long. But going from $11M to $4M clears up a ton of room, and allows Tavares to become a fan favourite again, not a player trying to live up to a massive contract.
Putting the team first is something Leaf Nation has been begging for from the stars, and they haven’t exactly delivered. But Tavares has the chance to reset the culture, and send a message he that he cares about Toronto.
