Toronto Maple Leafs

Examining the Toronto Maple Leafs competition in the bottom half of the Atlantic Division

Buffalo Sabres

Tied with the New York Jets for the longest standing playoff drought in North American sports, the Buffalo Sabres and their fans have suffered an agonizing series of failures for more than a decade now. If nothing else, the Sabres serve as a reminder of the perils of scorched earth rebuilds, as the team culture held them back despite the talent they amassed over that span.

GM Kevyn Adams has seen the streak continue, though the picture is brighter now than when he took over. The Sabres turn to former coach Lindy Ruff to take them over the edge.

While Ruff did see the upstart New Jersey Devils to a playoff appearance and a series win, the Devils face-planted amidst several injuries and questionable goaltending last season. Unfortunately, the trend for Ruff has been underwhelming outside of the 2022–23 season, success that might have more to do with then-assistant coach Andrew Brunette, who has authored success prior to and after the Devils breakout season.

All the same, the Sabres youth is a year older and wiser. There are a lot of reasons to think that this is the best team the Sabres have had in more than a decade. Beyond that, the Sabres might have the foundation for a sustained run of playoff appearances if they are able to start playing up to their potential.

Forwards

Peterka — Thompson — Tuch
Benson — Cozens — Quinn
Zucker — McLeod — Greenway
Malenstyn — Lafferty — Aube-Kubel
Extras: Krebs, Rosen, Kulich

The Sabres hope that the best is yet to come for their two best players, Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson. For now, they will serve as the foundation of the lineup as the youth movement behind them looks to come into their own. The Sabres will need several young players to come into their own to succeed this season, though there will be plenty of candidates to do so.

Up front, J.J. Peterka might already be the team’s top winger. While he has yet to assert himself into league wide recognition, his high level of play is well appreciated by the Sabres fan base. Dylan Cozens, Zach Benson, and Jack Quinn appear to be within striking distance of top six legitimacy, and will need to drive the middle of the lineup for the team to succeed. The bottom six has been revamped with relative analytical darlings, led by speedy checking centre Ryan McLeod.

Defence

Byram — Dahlin
Power — Jokiharju
Samuelsson — Clifton
Extras: Bryson, Johnson

The defence is short on right handed shots, but has an incredible amount of talent on paper. Dahlin switches to the weak side in this projected lineup, while Owen Power and Bowen Byram are poised to continue taking strides. All three have the pedigree to be elite-level defencemen, and will be tasked with leading this group.

Mattias Samuelsson is firmly the most archetypal physical defender, something that the Sabres might be lacking as a whole. The path to success will involve a lot of defensive work from the forwards, perhaps pointing to why the Sabres were so keen on trading for him. It will be critical that Dahlin and Power are ready to carry significant defensive burdens, and to excel in doing so if the Sabres are to truly push ahead in the conference and break their playoff drought.

Goalies

Luukkonen
Reimer
Levi

Unsurprisingly, the theme of youth continues in net. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi are both very promising players in their own right, but their timing has left the Sabres wanting.

Between the two the Sabres should all but guarantee that the goaltender of the future is in the building. It has been a lot to place on their backs, particularly for Luukkonen, the more advanced and established of the two. The Sabres playing a sound defensive game should give these young goalies their best and only shot at success. Alas, the duo have not got the job done to this point.

Still, there have been positives in their play, and certainly some mitigating factors. The Sabres attempts at filling the void between the two have been inelegant, even resulting in three goalies on the active roster. The younger developmental goalies cannot find a rhythm, the career backup cannot buoy a middling defensive team. This year, James Reimer features.

Prediction

5th in the Atlantic Division

The Sabres are one of the most high-variance teams of the 2024–25 season. The talent is there at all positions, though perhaps a bit green or unproven. The best-case scenario is that the Sabres are fighting for the division lead. This optimistic projection would see a number of the Sabres young talent stepping into further prominence. It is a hope and a prayer, but there are plenty of worthy candidates throughout the lineup.

The Sabres announced that the time for development was over when they made their coaching change. The team still needs to take a significant step defensively, perhaps not too regular a feature for the team or their new coach Lindy Ruff in recent years. Ruff is beloved in Buffalo, but bringing all the talent to a focus, or creating a team identity, will be paramount. At the very least they have added a key piece to that puzzle, as McLeod has been a stellar checking centre for the Edmonton Oilers the past two seasons.

For now, the Sabres are as good as they have looked on paper. Fans should have some hope for the season, as the Sabres could mirror or even exceed what Ruff’s Devils did in 2022–23, turning the corner from potential to reality. Of the four Atlantic Division teams looking to push their way into the playoffs, the Sabres have the best roster of the group.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens are in a slightly different space than the rest of the division, as this is the first season of this era they will join the teams looking to make the playoffs in earnest. Having pieced together a stable of draft picks and prospects, the time has come for the Canadiens true form to start taking shape.

Even without 2024 fifth overall pick Ivan Demidov in the picture, the Habs offensive ceiling is rising, and their highly regarded blueline is coming of age. Let’s take a look at the Habs roster, and if they can overtake the other playoff hopefuls of the Atlantic division.

Forwards

Slafkovsky — Suzuki — Caulfield
Newhook — Dach — Laine
Roy — Dvorak — Anderson
Armia — Evans — Gallagher
Extras: Harvey-Pinard, Barre-Boulet, Pezzetta, Farrell, Beck

The Habs are loaded with talent up front, even boasting a good deal of depth into the fourth line and beyond. While some veterans do not inspire as much confidence as they once did, and who might hold garish value against their cap hits, there is a new wave of talent worth looking forward to.

Juraj Slafkovsky has arrived, putting together a great back half when placed on this line with the Habs top talent. Together with the two way force Nick Duzuki and the always dangerous Cole Caulfield, the Habs top line has a lot of dimension and overall quality.

Alex Newhook should be better supported alongside a healthy Kirby Dach and the addition of Patrik Laine. While they all have more talent than to unlock, they are at least an interesting trio to slot behind the Suzuki line. Deeper in the lineup Joshua Roy looked capable in a brief appearance last season, and should be an upgrade for some tired veterans in this lineup. Between Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, Joel Armia, and Christian Dvorak there is at least a level of competence that should feel better on a stronger team.

Michael Pezzetta is a spark plug, while Raphael Harvey-Pinard and Sean Farrell bring some offensive upside. The best bet to make an impact in the near future is Owen Beck, whose growth as a centre is crucial to supporting Suzuki in the long term.

Defence

Matheson — Guhle
Hutson — Savard
Xhekaj — Barron
Extras: Struble, Reinbacher, Mailloux

Veterans Mike Matheson and David Savard have played some of the better hockey of their careers for the rebuilding Canadiens, and might be valuable anchors for an otherwise high-variance blueline. This young talent will decide the Habs fate now and in the future, perhaps a destiny that will have to be grown into.

Lane Hutson could be a breakout star, and even a strong bet for the Calder Trophy this season. The skilled defenceman has a chance to run the top power play and is the most dynamic offensively in the Habs system. Kaiden Guhle is another pillar, now projected to take a bigger role and on his weak side. Guhle has been impressive, but top pairing usage and playing on the right is quite a tall task.

Even with Guhle on the right, the depth on the left side is a bit redundant, leading to some interesting potentials. Arber Xhekaj is a fan favourite, an unreasonably tough customer. Jayden Struble has been as good, still a defensive presence, relying more so on his skating. The Habs should want to hold onto both, or at least should be careful in discarding their talents.

On the horizon is some help on the right side. In Reinbacher and Mailloux. Logan Mailloux is more of an offensive player, and is the older of the two. David Reinbacher is the higher quality profile on and off the ice, though expecting him to be a difference-maker for a playoff team from the start of the season is ambitious. Most likely we see one or both appearing in some games this season, with any true impact arriving the season after.

Goalies

Montembeault
Primeau

It might be difficult for Sam Montembeault to make the best-on-best team Canada slated for the Four Nations Tournament, but he has done just about as well as possible in earning the starting job in Montreal. It is rare that a flyer that a rebuilding team takes on a young NHLer pats off as seamlessly as Montembeault has with the Habs. There is a legitimate chance that he is the starter for whatever Habs team eventually makes the playoffs.

Cayden Primeau has shown enough that the Habs were happy moving off of Jake Allen. While some of this speaks to Montembeault’s success, Primeau has done enough to earn this role as the backup. The Habs improved defensive play would be a boon to Primeau, giving the Habs a capable young tandem.

Prediction

6th in the Atlantic Division

Despite their firm rebuilding status the Habs have kept their losing somewhat respectable. They are a competitive group with enough depth to stay true through some adversity. Though any thoughts of contender status lie with the emergence of Beck, Demidov, and Reinbacher, Slafkovsky, Guhle, and Hutson coming into their own is a significant starting point.

The Habs will be hoping to be in the playoff mix into the trade deadline. This might complicate their deadline manoeuvring, as some veterans might now be a good fit in the Habs plans. The more likely outcome is that the Habs are not quite ready to make the playoffs, but continuing a strong team culture is still important to set the scene for a return to the postseason in 2025–26.

Detroit Red Wings

While GM Steve Yzerman made a name for himself laying the foundation of the Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty, things have not gone as smoothly in Detroit.

The Red Wings find themselves stalled in no man’s land, missing the playoffs yet without a high-end draft slot.

On one hand, the Wings are still a year away from many of their young talents stepping into NHL roles in earnest. In the meantime, the team has continued to add veterans to their group. The combination has seemed inelegant, enough to keep the Wings from the top of the draft, yet not enough to provide much hope for the season at hand.

Let’s take a look at the roster to see how the Wings might fare in the upcoming 2024–25 season.

Forwards

Debrincat — Larkin — Raymond
Tarasenko — Compher — Kane
Rasmussen — Copp — Berggren
Motte — Veleno — Fischer
Extras: Kasper, Soderblom, Danielson, Mazur

Though the team as a whole does not inspire much confidence, the top line is a legitimately strong trio. Despite the Wings draft efforts, Dylan Larkin remains the only high level centre on the roster. Larkin’s health and availability are entirely crucial to the team’s success. Alex Debrincat is a quality sniper, more of a compliment than a play driver. Lucas Raymond has the chance to assert himself as the Wings best forward this season.

The Wings have started to add some veteran scorers to supplement the group, namely Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. For the most part, there has been a clear strategy to build up the physical and defensive properties of the group in the past, including J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp.

There are some younger forwards who have become NHL regulars, and naturally any improvements here would be greatly appreciated. Jonatan Berggren, a skilled winger, might have the best chance to do so, yet Michael Rasmussen has shown signs of life offensively. Joe Veleno is a capable bottom-six centre.

The group is solid, yet lacking enough flare to be considered among the better forward groups in the league. Any hope of the Wings bridging this gap lies with younger talents taking a big step forward. Elmer Soderblom is a tantalizing player, with a huge frame and legitimate puck skills. Players of his size seem to take a bit more time to develop, so even entering his mid 20s Soderblom could become a big piece of the Wings offence.

More traditional prospects are Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson. Both have more well-rounded games and can play centre. Either or both could drastically change the Wings upside if they are ready to make an impact. Carter Mazur might be able to step into the NHL at some point this season, while Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is almost certainly further away. Both have the trademark of high compete levels, and both have some pop behind their shots.

We will need to see some of Yzerman’s draftees stepping out of promise and into prominence. Even considering prospects further from the NHL, the future as a whole may lack gamebreaking offensive upside, but does have healthy doses of physical and responsible play.

Defence

Chiarot — Seider
Edvinsson — Petry
Maatta — Gustafsson
Extras: Wallinder, Lagesson, Holl, Johansson

All the themes of the Wings forwards are echoed by how the blueline is built. There is some youth, and more on the way, supported by veteran free agent signings. The group is led by Moritz Seider, a well rounded defender who is among the best young blueliners in the league. Able to contribute on both sides of the puck and on both special teams, Seider is also quite physical.

Simon Edvinsson is expected to make the jump to being a full time NHLer. Though he is quite tall, Edvinsson is skilled, a strong skater, and has a good defensive stick. Still, there might be some growing pains for Edvinsson this season.

In the future, a dynamic puck-moving option in Axel Sandin-Pellikka seems to be a fantastic addition, giving the Wings three young defencemen to build around. Tom Willander and Albert Johansson are probably closer to making an impact, raising the long term ceiling on this group. Unfortunately, like the situation up front, the 2024–25 season might be too soon to expect the full force of the blueline.

For now, the Wings have a myriad of veterans to round out the group. Ben Chiarot is physical, though has struggled to play huge minutes alongside Seider. Olli Maatta is another depth defender, though former Leafs William Lagesson and Justin Holl are reasonable options as extras. Jeff Petry is a good skater, and does make sense as a partner for Edvinsson, should the wings go that route.

Goalies

Talbot
Lyon
Husso
Cossa

While lacking a true starter, the Wings at least sport options. Cam Talbot held up beyond expectation last season, though behind a strong defensive team in the Los Angeles Kings. Alex Lyon has been very effective as a backup for the past few seasons now. Ville Husso has disappointed since joining the Wings. There is little fanfare around the trio, but good team defence should help the goalies outplay their reputations.

Sebastian Cossa is the expected goalie of the future, though Trey Augustine is a decent prospect as well. Cossa is being brought along slowly, as he started his pro career in the ECHL for the 2022–23 season. Now coming off of a good 2023–24 campaign, Cossa might not be so far from his NHL debut. Again, hopes for truly impactful contributions lie more with the 2025–26 season than this coming year.

Prediction

7th in the Atlantic Division

While not completely overmatched, it is difficult to project much upside for the Wings this coming season. The team should be respectable, and will need to rely on a defensive identity to push into a wildcard spot. There are several teams in this vicinity that have more reason to hope than the Wings.

Their lack of top draft picks in the past has hampered the immediacy of their reinforcements, the accompanying excitement somewhat muted. Though on the surface the rebuild seems to have stalled, there is a sustainable foundation forming. This season’s roster might even be called a bit uninspiring, yet there is legitimate hope that 2025–26 could see that script flipped.

Fans will certainly voice their displeasure with the Yzerplan, and the GM seat should be getting hotter. Still, if the Wings bring in a new GM for next season it will be Yzerman who laid the path towards this brighter future. The turnaround has taken longer than any would have hoped for.

Ottawa Senators

Now with president and GM Steve Staios at the helm, the Ottawa Senators look to step out from the shadows of empty promise. The team has fallen flat after several hope filled offseasons.

Through it all the Sens have made some bold decisions that have often led to diminishing returns. Strong rosters on paper have underwhelmed, the team struggling to find the defensive identity needed to take the next step.

Let’s take a deeper look at the Sens projected lineup to see if they might reverse the trend this season.

Forwards

Tkachuk — Stutzle — Giroux
Perron — Norris — Batherson
Greig — Pinto — Amadio
Gregor — Ostapchuk — MacEwan
Extras: Cousins, Crookshank

The Sens have a good top line, Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle as close to stars as can be without ever making the playoffs. Claude Giroux is still impactful, making any linemates better. There is an issue of depth behind the trio, though not entirely bereft of bright spots.

Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto are promising young NHLers who might be a bit better this season. Drake Batherson is a solid middle-six winger. Josh Norris is a good centre when healthy, though at this point he has missed enough time that even that might be in question. Norris’ injury history drives home the concern of depth. The rest of this forward lineup is slotted a bit higher than one would hope.

Even worse, the Sens do not seem to have many forward prospects on the immediate horizon. At full health, this group is at least a quality top six forward away from being a real threat, and Norris’ health is anything but guaranteed.

Defence

Sanderson — Zub
Chabot — Jensen
Kleven — Bernard-Docker
Extras: Hamonic

The Sens rearranged their back end, clearly prioritizing a balance of right-shot defenders as the Jakob Chychrun experiment ran its course. Jake Sanderson leads the group and is flanked by Artem Zub, the Sens best right-handed option.

Thomas Chabot has seen his stock fall in recent years, logging huge minutes on a poor defensive team. Though the Sens blueline had been impressive on paper at points, their defensive play was lacking. A large portion of this falls on the forward group as well, lacking the depth to put together a formidable checking line. Nick Jensen is a quiet yet effective defensive presence, and is well-positioned to reverse the Sens fortunes by outplaying his reputation and stabilizing the unit.

Tyler Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker are a young pairing projected to be regulars this coming season. Both have enough seasoning and defensive attributes to succeed in this projected role. There might be some hope that this blueline is ready to be more effective overall than last year’s group.

Goalies

Ullmark
Forsberg
Sogaard
Hogberg

The goaltending carousel continues in Ottawa, this time spending big to acquire pending UFA and former Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark. Convinced that their goaltending has been an issue the Sens have had a revolving door, aggressively targeting change at the position over the last handful of seasons.

The team has been less proactive elsewhere on their roster. While it is true that many of their goalies have struggled over the years, it is also true that they have all played better on other teams after leaving the Sens. Unfortunately, the Sens have hemorrhaged a number of assets in chasing the ghost of good goaltending. Without a contract extension, Ullmark will be expensive, one way or another.

The Sens do have some depth at the position, including veterans Anton Forsberg and Marcus Hogberg. Mads Sogaard has yet to break through as a full-time NHL option, though under the same adverse conditions that have hampered the Sens other netminders over the seasons.

Prediction

8th in the Atlantic Division

This is a fairly pessimistic projection, one that the Sens have the talent to outperform. Still, with the division free of any true rebuilders, and the Sens coming off of several seasons of underperforming, confidence is a bit hard to come by. Travis Green was the defensive checking centre that this roster needs in his playing days. Now he will need to get a fairly thin forward group to be much better defensively from behind the bench.

Past trade debacles with Jakob Chychrun and Alex Debrincat have drained the Sens of young talent, as have some strange draft selections. With a young blueline and prospect Carter Yakemchuk in tow, there is at least some hope for the backend going forward. For now, the goalies seem to be set.

While the Sens will need to play better as a group, the flaw is clearly their forward depth. The Sens would be wise to take some fliers throughout the season, including keeping a discerning eye on the waiver wire.

At some point, the Sens will need to have better asset management, as there are only so many assets to trade away or cap dollars to dole out. It will be difficult for the Sens to outmanoeuvre the field in the wildcard race. Any chance of doing so lies in a defensive game strong enough to get the most out of Ullmark, a healthy Norris, and a breakthrough for Pinto.

Gregory Babinski

twitter: @axiomsofice

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