The Leafs have a brand new captain in Auston Matthews. Rumoured for some time, the Leafs finally made the news official in August. This ushers in a new era for the Leafs, as John Tavares steps back in leadership and his role on the team.
In early line combinations, Tavares has been featured on the third line, playing behind Matthews and William Nylander. Who knows how long the Nylander experiment will last, but right now that’s where everyone is lining up. If that stays the course throughout the season, it’s an unreal amount of depth at centre. And it all starts with the guy playing top-line minutes.
Matthews had a career season in 2023–24. He surpassed his previous goal-scoring total of 60 goals with a league-leading 69 goals in 81 games. He also beat his highest point total by one with 107. After another early playoff exit, many thought this would be the end of this Leafs core. However, they’re running it back with some improvements on defence and goalie, so it’s on Matthews to carry this team forward.
And there’s a chance he does it. With 52 goals, Matthews will become the Leafs all-time goal-scoring leader (isn’t that insane?). But could he be even better than last year, and become the first player in over 30 years to score 70?
Oddly enough, Matthews could be boosted by his linemates in 2024–25
As weird as it is to say, Matthews could get a boost from his linemates this year. Matthew Knies is entering his sophomore season, which is unpredictable. He could take another step, or he could take a step back. I’d bet on him taking another step.
The linemate who could boost Matthews is found on the other side of the ice, Mitch Marner. At the forefront of trade rumours and blame, Marner has continued to keep a cool head and begins the 2024–25 season one year away from unrestricted free agency.
Given Marner’s age, he’s likely to sign the biggest contract of his career. That means he’s going to be playing as hard as he can this season to increase those point totals. If he’s going to be playing with Matthews, as early preseason lines suggest, those two could be in for a rockstar year of point generation.
Shooting percentage outlines that Matthews may take a step back in goals scored
In 2023–24, Matthews shot 18.7%. That was the highest of his career, but not by much, as his career shooting average is 16.2%.
However, if you remove his 2022–23 season, where he had a lowly 12.2%, his average would jump a bit. Just based on shooting percentage, I would expect Matthews to take a step back in goal-scoring. You can also put the numbers aside and factor in that scoring goals in the NHL is just really difficult. Aside from Matthews’ 69, the second-highest goal scorer last year was Sam Reinhart with 57.
Matthews is likely to lead the league in goals again, but not by as much as he did in 2023–24. If he can play a healthy season, I fully expect 65 goals and 110 points. I would expect Matthews’ assist totals to increase, and for him to put forth his best point total season. Last year he took a step back on the assist side, which usually occurs when your goal-scoring totals increase so much. If he evens out over both categories, I would still predict he’ll score a career-high point total.
Oh, and he also hit the post 20 times last year.
It ultimately doesn’t matter until the playoffs
A trend in Leafs land is the disregard of the regular season. Playoffs have been the main focal point for so many years. You all know why. I imagine every core player on the Leafs is sick of it. It’s one of the biggest talking points all year. Even if Matthews hits 70, it won’t matter if the team loses in the first round again.
Matthews is not a bad playoff performer. He doesn’t get blamed as much as Marner, for example. However, Matthews can probably admit he wanted point totals better than the one goal and four points in games games last season. Keep in mind he was dealing with a head injury during the first round, and didn’t play in games five or six.
He’s a fine playoff performer, with 23 goals and 48 points in 55 games, but I would think Leafs fans want him to take that next step. And he has the potential to do so. He’s one of the best players in the league. You should never bet against talent.
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