The Toronto Maple Leafs are entering into another season with sky-high expectations. As Morgan Rielly said earlier in training camp, “It’s Stanley Cup or bust.”
Indeed, with only one playoff series win in eight years, Maple Leafs fans are pulling out what little hair remains.
What’s ironic about the Maple Leafs’ situation is that despite very little playoff success, several Maple Leafs are nearing career or even franchise records, which is impressive given that the Maple Leafs are an Original Six team with a long, storied franchise, and that the Maple Leafs’ superstars are under 30 years old.
In this article, we will look at Maple Leafs players who could reach NHL milestones this upcoming season.
Matthews chasing the most goals in Leafs history
The defining characteristic of Auston Matthews is his ability to put the puck into the back of the net. He scored four goals in his first NHL game, already setting a modern NHL record for most goals scored in an NHL debut. Matthews has six 40-goal seasons in his eight-year career, scoring 60 goals in 2021–22 and 69 goals last season.
Entering his first year as Maple Leaf’s captain, Auston Matthews is already pushing for the Maple Leafs’ all-time lead in goals. Matthews sits third in Maple Leafs history with 368 goals, behind Darryl Sittler with 389 and Mats Sundin with 420.
With Matthews needing 52 goals to tie the record, and having scored at a 0.65 goal per game pace in his career, Matthews would be on track to reach this goal total by game 80, bringing his career goal total to 421. For career points, at a 1.15 point per game pace, this works out to 92 points over the same 80-game season, bringing his career points well over 700 to 741.
However, Matthews has only played 80 games or more twice in his career, with 81 games played last season.
When looking at the last three seasons, Matthews has played 228 games (76 games per season), scored 169 goals (0.74 goals per game), and put up 298 points (1.31 points per game). At this pace, playing 76 games, Matthews would score 56 goals, and almost reach 750 career points with 748.
Even if Matthews were to take a “step back” and score 56 goals in the upcoming season, he would still likely be on track to win his fourth Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy in five years, and reach over 700 career points. What’s even more scary is that Matthews has only played 562 games and is 27 years old.
Marner’s assist totals
Mitch Marner is known to be one of the league’s best passers. He is also known to be a force on defence, often playing on the penalty kill and being a Frank J. Selke Trophy nominee in the 2022–23 season.
Marner has had five seasons where he had 50 or more assists. While his career high in assists in a single season was 69 in the 2022–23 season, he had 68 assists in the 2018–19 season, and 62 in the 2021–22 season. Currently, Marner is fifth on the Maple Leafs’ all-time assist leaders, behind Maple Leafs legends Dave Keon, Darryl Sittler, Mats Sundin, and Borje Salming.
In his career, Marner obtains approximately 0.77 assists per game. Over an 82-game season, this works out to 63 assists. This would put Marner in fourth place of all-time Maple Leafs assist leaders with 508, overtaking Dave Keon, and 19 behind Darryl Sittler in third. While not as headline-worthy when compared to Matthews possibly taking sole possession of the Maple Leafs’ goal-scoring record, like Matthews, Marner is only 27 years old and has played a smaller amount of games compared to the current record leaders with only 576 games.
Marner has also missed the elusive 100-point season, coming ever so close by reaching 97 points in the 2021–22 season, and 99 points in the 2022–23 season. Last season, despite playing only 69 games, Marner was on pace for 101 points. Marner certainly has the tools to blast past 100 points, and entering a make-or-break season might be the motivation necessary.
As Marner enters the final year of his six-year deal with an AAV of $10.9M, it is not certain if Marner will re-sign with the Maple Leafs. Nevertheless, being near the top of an all-time franchise record when your NHL career is likely not even half over, is very impressive.
Can Nylander reach 100 points in a season?
Another player chasing the elusive 100-point season is William Nylander. Nylander has 528 points in 603 games. While not a point-a-game player over his career, Nylander often drives the second line with his smooth skating, zone entry, and lethal shot. This is all being assigned less ice time than Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
When Nylander was drafted eighth overall in the 2014 NHL Draft by the Maple Leafs, he was thought to be a future centre. However, between drafting Auston Matthews and signing John Tavares, Nylander has mostly played on the wing. Nylander has played centre with the Toronto Marlies and some games with the Maple Leafs, however, these were generally short stints.
With Craig Berube seemingly giving Nylander a proper attempt to play this centre this upcoming season, which is long overdue, Nylander could see his point totals skyrocket. Furthermore, Nylander has consistently improved over the last three years. In 2021–22, Nylander had 34 goals and 80 points. The following season, a milestone of 40 goals and 87 points. And last season, he reached 40 goals once again and had 98 points, just shy of 100 points.
Depending on his linemates, Nylander could very well reach over 100 points this season for the first time in his NHL career.
Rielly could reach 500 assists
Morgan Rielly is entering the 12th season of his career. Having played solely for the Maple Leafs, Rielly has been a staple on the Maple Leafs’ back end for over a decade. While Morgan Rielly continues his push to be one of the best offensive Toronto Maple Leafs defencemen of all time this upcoming season, there are several milestones that Rielly can reach this year.
Rielly’s career pace for games played is 71 games per season. Barring any significant injury, Rielly will hit over 850 games played this upcoming season. Furthermore, with his career pace of 0.60 points per game, Rielly will likely hit between 42 points (playing 71 games) and 49 points (playing the full 82 games). This would put him over the 500 career points milestone, a massive accomplishment for any defenceman.
With a career pace of 40 assists over an 82-game season, Rielly will break the 400 career assists mark. To reach 100 career goals, Rielly would need to score 20. While this is unlikely given his career pace over a full 82-game season is eight goals, Rielly did score 20 goals in the 2018–19 season.
Tavares is chasing a bunch of milestones
Having already reached the 1,000 career points milestone last season, John Tavares is still going on strong with 456 career goals, and 584 career assists for 1040 career points. Tavares has been very consistent throughout his entire career, playing an average of 74 games and scoring 76 points per season over his 15-year career. Following this pace, Tavares could reach over 1,100 career points this season.
With 456 career goals, Tavares is 44 goals away from 500. With a career pace of 0.41 goals per game or 33 goals per 82 games, Tavares would need to score ten more than his career average. It is not out of the realm of possibility as Tavares has scored more than 40 goals once, with 47 in 2018–19, but it is not likely.
Following his career pace of 0.53 assists per game (or 43 per season), Tavares could reach over 600 career assists this upcoming season. This seems very likely with Tavares having reached over 43 assists in a season five times in his career.
1,000 games for Ekman-Larsson, and maybe 500 points
Newcomer to the Maple Leafs, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, is no newcomer to the NHL. Ekman-Larsson has played 982 games, over 14 seasons with the Arizona Coyotes, Vancouver Canucks, and last season with the Florida Panthers.
Over his career, Ekman-Larsson has scored 144 goals, and registered 327 assists for 471 points. In terms of pace over an 82-game season, this works out to 12 goals, 27 assists, and 39 points.
Ekman-Larsson is only 18 games away from 1,000 career NHL games. Over his career, Ekman-Larsson averages 70 games per season. Barring any early season-ending injury, he should reach 1,000 games played with the Maple Leafs this year.
Following his career pace for points, over an 82-game season, Ekman-Larsson should hit over 500 career points this upcoming season with 510. Even playing to his career average of 70 games per season, Ekman-Larsson would still record 33 points, putting him at 504 career points.
However, Ekman-Larsson has not recorded a 33-point season in the last five years, with the closest being 32 points last season with the Stanley Cup champions, the Flordia Panthers. Assuming Ekman-Larsson returns to form, Ekman-Larsson could join the 500 career points club.
A lot to follow
With the NHL preseason half over, we approach another season where many Maple Leafs fans are in a “deep playoff run” or bust mindset. While the Maple Leafs’ playoff performance in the Shanahan era leaves a lot to be desired, following the career milestones of players makes the 82-game regular season grind more enjoyable.
