A lot is going well for the Toronto Maple Leafs, most importantly are early signs of a much better quality as a team (even after last night). As always, there are always negatives, injury-related or otherwise. Such is the push and pull of attrition and time upon the inherently chaotic game itself. So too is the fractured persona of Leafs Nation at large, endless churning between hope and anxiety that compels opinion.
Within the Leafs budding season, John Tavares finds himself under a more critical eye. While at this point his cap hit is nearly impossible for him to live up to, not to mention his captaincy redistributed, this is the last year of his deal. Tavares is firmly in a different stage of his career than when he first joined the Leafs. Engulfed in a slow start to the season, and with his icetime diminished, let’s examine where Tavares is and what his future with the Leafs might hold.
Here and now
Even before considering some extenuating circumstances Tavares is still a key member of the team, and can be a big contributor to the team’s success. Behind Auston Matthews, the Leafs centre depth has some questions, and undeniably Tavares is the most dependable centre after the new captain. Tavares plays a heavy game, something coach Craig Berube clearly values. Of course, a role on the top power play unit is not to be discounted either.
All of this could be subject to change, however. There is reason to believe that adjustments can be made to counteract the aging process that is at play. Each will have opinions on which ways Tavares will be challenged over the rest of his career. Already his place in the lineup is diminished, as are his linemates. His net-front role on the top power play may or may not be next, as his current spot at the net front might be better filled by Matthew Knies at some point. Tavares’ role at centre might be safest, for now, given the Leafs lack of certainty in other options.
With trade protection on his contract and quite frankly what might be the best Leaf team that he has been a part of, it is very unlikely that he will be traded. On a logistical level alone it is close to impossible. While freeing up space from his cap hit is appetizing, trading for legitimate upgrades would be expensive in their own right. The fact is that Tavares has shown that he wants to be in Toronto for reasons on and off the ice. He has also shown he is willing to make concessions, accepting the effects of Father Time with a level of grace. Naturally, his mind could change on a whim, but everything points to Tavares’ willingness to be flexible on another deal to stay with the Leafs.
Next deal
There are expectations that come with an $11M cap hit, but for Tavares, the days of 40 goals and almost 100 points are gone. While this is not good value in a vacuum, this was expected when he signed with the Leafs in the first place. From a longer-term perspective, the value lies in keeping Tavares, though. In the cap era, the perception of players is heavily tied to their cap hits. With a new contract, Tavares will have a chance to recontextualize his place on the team and in the hearts and minds of Leafs Nation.
There are multiple paths through the storm of possibility, each with their own pros and cons. Perhaps the Leafs can fit Tavares into their cap on a year-to-year basis, allowing the team more flexibility in the future, and likely correlating with how Tavares performs along the way. Perhaps Tavares would rather prioritize longer-term stability or some trade protection, which might save the team some cap dollars.
For his part, Leafs GM Brad Treliving has a reputation for valuing veteran players. Some kind of solution seems imminent given the disposition and perceived goals of both sides. The Leafs are already committed to several older players on significant term, an improved blueline reinforced with Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Both Leafs defencemen might be signed a bit longer than fans are comfortable with, but only time will tell how those cap waters are navigated. This provides a framework, rather an internal cap structure, for the Leafs to build around.
Tavares might not be the captain anymore, but he can still be a leader for the franchise. Though he might be on thin ice, Brendan Shanahan’s stated goals for the team all those years ago align with this. Shanahan outlined his plan to build a perennial playoff contender, and that the team’s strength would create a culture where players took less to be a part of it. Seeing as Tavares has done everything asked of him with grace, and appears in line to take less to stay with the Leafs, it is important to reward his allegiance.
The Leafs should only go so far with this idea. Between now and July 1 the Leafs will have more important contracts to prioritize. For example, Tavares should not be taking up the room that Knies, Mitch Marner, or even Jake McCabe might require to stay in the fold. There is no need to rush a Tavares extension before the season ends and the cap picture of 2025–26 comes into focus.
Potential solutions
It should be remembered that Tavares missed some time at the start of the season with an illness. Apparently, Tavares lost a significant amount of weight over the course of this process, which would certainly take a toll on his play. His line has featured a rotation of Nicholas Robertson, Max Pacioretty, and Pontus Holmberg, none of whom truly elevate Tavares to a greater impact. Especially given the power play’s early struggles, it is no surprise that Tavares is being outscored by the likes of Max Domi, Bobby McMann, and Knies. In the current context of the lineup we should expect Tavares to produce in line with these complementary forwards more than he does with Matthews, William Nylander, or Marner.
Eventually, we should see Tavares build a bit more chemistry with his linemates, where a return for Calle Jarnkrok might be a welcome sight. There is a possibility that Tavares gets moved to LTIR as the trade deadline approaches, giving the Leafs tons of cap space to work with. Similar to how the Vegas Golden Knights are able to navigate Mark Stone, this is a dubious process with some precedent. This would be taking Tavares out of rhythm heading into the playoffs, but Tavares is accomplished and experienced enough that such conspiring is inevitable.
Finally, there are options to fix the power play, or at least attempt a new formation. Tavares, currently at the net front, is better suited for the bumper role in the high slot. Marner, currently in the bumper, is better suited for a role with more possession opportunities. Fitting Matthews, Marner, and Nylander in their preferred spots has been difficult, especially with a defenceman alongside. For the Leafs big three to coexist, to get Tavares into a more ideal spot, and to upgrade the Leafs net front presence there is a solution, illustrated below.
One Comment