Around the NHL, teams are settling into their identities, the grand designs of the offseason revealing themselves. There will yet be twists and turns, as the concept of team identity is inherently forged on a game-by-game basis. For the Toronto Maple Leafs, the trend is definitely positive, the team showing off what is undeniably its most stable defensive form in the salary cap era. The bolstered blueline and strong goaltending have powered an improved penalty kill.
Things are not all perfect, naturally. There are growing concerns with the forward group. The Leafs have had their share of circumstantial adversity, from Auston Matthews’ injury and relatively tame output, to a long dry spell on the power play. Certainly, injuries to Calle Jarnkrok and Max Pacioretty have not helped. What is clear is that if the Leafs are looking to add throughout the season, much of the focus will be up front.
Recently, MLSE President Keith Pelley stated that the power structure of the Leafs appears to be in lockstep. With Brendan Shanahan, Brad Treliving, and Craig Berube all on the same page, the identity of the team has a clear vision. From this, we can see how the trio see where the team is as a whole.
There are two types of players that the team will be looking for: big wingers and defensive centres. There will be different calibres and tiers within these archetypes. Let’s take a look at some players with expiring contracts on less competitive teams to make an initial list of players the Leafs might take a look at.
Big winger
Based on his work with the St. Louis Blues, it was expected that Berube would appreciate size up front. Treliving is noted for placing an emphasis and value on size as well. With Shanahan being a power forward in his playing days, the communal vision here is clear. Already, several players of this archetype have made meaningful contributions, as Matthew Knies, Max Pacioretty, and Bobby McMann have been difference-makers. To an extent, Steven Lorentz has these traits lower down the lineup.
The Pacioretty injury has been noticeable. Though he will return, his health should not be taken for granted. Even at full health, adding viable depth to insulate and compete with Pacioretty and McMann would be a nice boost. Another shooter would be ideal, but more than bringing individual offence these types of players will open up ice and opportunities for their teammates, especially in the relative lawlessness of the playoffs.
Brandon Tanev
With his brother Chris Tanev on the team, the Leafs acquiring Brandon Tanev would go over well from a narrative standpoint. While not as effective as his brother, Brandon is similarly intense, fierce, and competitive. Brandon can get in on the forecheck, something that will be even more valuable come playoff time. The offensive contributions are not as high as most others on this list, but the identity of the team would be reinforced. There is a chance at a sweetheart deal beyond next season.
Jordan Greenway
Things might have to go terribly wrong for the Buffalo Sabres to sell at the deadline, but there have been trade rumours surrounding Jordan Greenway in the past. Greenway is 6’6″, a physical presence. Like Brandon Tanev the offensive game is limited, less upside than McMann offers for example. Still, there have been flashes throughout his career, including career highs of 12 goals and 26 assists. Greenway was a teammate of Matthews for the USNTDP, and could be a good net-front presence in the Leafs bottom six.
Justin Brazeau and Trent Frederic
A former Toronto Marlie, Justin Brazeau has started to earn more ice time with the Boston Bruins. At the same height as Greenway, Brazeau is also more of a shooting threat than many on this list. Brazeau embodies a directness that Berube is often preaching, and a shooting mentality is likely to be valued with so many pass-first options on the Leafs already. More than likely the Bruins will be eager to keep Brazeau around long term, though some chaos might be expected if the Bruins cannot keep pace in the wildcard race.
Another Bruin to consider is Trent Frederic. The same team issues apply, but the Bruins preference for these types of big, physical forwards is clear. While his career stats are solid, there might be more to come for Frederic. While either would make nice additions for the Leafs, it is far more likely that the Bruins extend both power forwards.
Klim Kostin
Slightly different than many on this list, Klim Kostin will be an RFA after the season. This does make it far less likely that he will be dealt, and likely more expensive to acquire. Kostin does have some puck skills, but is effective when he applies himself in more direct ways. All the tools are present, but consistency has historically been elusive for Kostin. Once a member of Berube’s Blues, Kostin seemed unable to win over Berube for consistent ice time. Perhaps things have changed enough, but it is likely their history makes a Kostin and Berube reunion less likely.
Pat Maroon
Another of Berube’s Blues, Pat Maroon is still effective. Currently on the Chicago Blackhawks, Maroon is nearing the end of his career. A multi-time Stanley Cup champion, Maroon brings a level of experience rarely matched. Maroon does have some decent vision with short support passes, meaning his offensive game might fit nicely on a cycle-focused line.
Jesse Puljujarvi
Jesse Puljujarvi’s career has been disappointing vis a vis his draft position, but there are still traits to work with. A fantastic forechecker, Puljujarvi brings a great deal of speed. Puck control and shooting have been huge limitations for his NHL effectiveness. With the Pittsburgh Penguins open for business, GM Kyle Dubas might be ready to deal with the Leafs. There might be a holdover from his time in Toronto that would constitute a comfortable return for both sides.
Joel Armia
The Montreal Canadiens will undoubtedly be sellers after a disappointing start to their season, meaning Joel Armia should be on the market at some point. There is some offensive game, mostly as a goal scorer, which does make him an interesting option. The cap hit might be a bit rich, but the acquisition cost will probably be low.
Brock McGinn
Despite their rebuild, the Anaheim Ducks clearly value what Brock McGinn brings to the table. Not as big as many of the players on this list, McGinn does bring an edge. In other words, he plays big. A tough, injury-shortened campaign for the rebuilding Ducks last season, the shine has come off. Still, the Ducks are an interesting team for those looking to dump salary, and McGinn could be a depth option.
Christian Fischer
Another in-division target is Christian Fischer, who brings an element of speed. The Detroit Red Wings are in a tough spot, and might not be willing to sell off any assets. Fischer is probably only an upgrade to the Leafs fourth line, if that, but does somewhat fit the profile.
Luke Kunin
Another San Jose Shark who might not fit into the team’s long-term plans, Luke Kunin is thought to be on the move. Like both McGinn and Fischer, Kunin is not necessarily the biggest body, but plays a direct style. Over the years Kunin’s overall game has its documented warts.
Internal options
Alex Steeves got a look recently, and provides a similar style to the likes of Fischer, Kunin, or McGinn, and perhaps just as much as well. While not the biggest, Steeves is at his best when playing heavy and simple. At 24 he is a bit older than the high-end prospects many focus on, but many players continue to improve throughout their 20s. Steeves has been consistent in the AHL, and should have more chances to prove himself.
The Leafs will be more patient with Nikita Grebenkin, though the ceiling and fit are more tantalizing. At 21, Grebenkin has already had pro success, producing and progressing nicely in the KHL over the past couple seasons. There is no guarantee that Grebenkin will be ready to step into a meaningful NHL role this season, but he is worth keeping an eye on.
Grebenkin is second in Marlies scoring to Steeves, but chances are the earliest reevaluation will come around midseason. It is for the best to groom Grebenkin, allowing him to earn his way into the league, and he is off to as good a start as one could hope.
Verdict
There will be more names that emerge from the rumour mill, new possibilities sprouting as the season unfolds. Within this list are mostly players who would not be as impactful as Bobby McMann or Max Pacioretty, let alone Matthew Knies. Still, many of these players can be an upgrade over Lorentz or Steeves, while others might not. Price point will be crucial, but a small investment can still add some crucial depth. This might be a pure rental, as prospects like Grebenkin and Easton Cowan will have legitimate shots at regular spots next season.
Defensive centre
The bigger hole in the Leafs roster might be the third-line centre role. David Kampf does have some good stretches, but is likely best served as a defensive specialist. Max Domi has filled in valiantly, and Pontus Holmberg has survived. Still, a quality two-way centre would help solidify the lineup.
This market is much thinner, and centres much more valuable. In other words, costs will be higher, perhaps even too much to afford.
Yanni Gourde
Again, there is no guarantee that the Seattle Kraken trade pending UFAs, but there is a chance that Yanni Gourde is available. After signing Chandler Stephenson to a long deal this past summer, and with Shane Wright and Matty Beniers pushing for more minutes, there might not be room for Gourde in the long term.
Gourde is likely the best player of this ilk on the market, and would clearly upgrade the Leafs forward group. A proven playoff performer and a fierce competitor, Gourde can contribute anywhere in the middle six. The acquisition and salary cap cost might be too much for the Leafs to manage.
Nico Sturm
Back to the San Jose Sharks, the Stanley Cup champion Nico Sturm plays even bigger than his 6’3″ frame. A force at both net fronts, Sturm would need complementary wingers and some instant chemistry to thrive as the Leafs third centre. The tools are present, but the chance that he is a true offensive upgrade on Kampf is slim. Sturm does bring a slightly different and more physical flavour than Kampf, so there is a chance he is a better fit.
Nick Bjugstad
A huge centre, Nick Bjugstad brings many similar traits to the ice that Sturm does. The pedigree for offence is more pronounced than Sturm’s, but the expectations should be in a similar ballpark. It is far less likely that Bjugstad gets dealt, as Utah HC is clearly set on pushing for a playoff spot. With a number of young talented prospects on the horizon, some instant success in the new market could put an end to the lean and melodramatic saga of the Coyotes. For good, for now, or at least just for this version of the franchise.
Isac Lundestrom
A former first-round pick, and a holdover from a past regime, Isac Lundestrom has stagnated in the Anaheim Ducks improving depth chart. Still, the Leafs would be hoping for better hockey than Lundestrom has played to this point. Perhaps a stronger team around him would aid that process. At the very least, Lundestrom has been a penalty killer in each of the past five seasons. He could be an outright upgrade on Kampf.
Noah Cates
Philadelphia Flyers coach John Tortorella is not shy about unpredictable deployment. Currently in his coach’s doghouse, Noah Cates has seen his role diminished since his strong rookie season. Cates was an accomplished defensive centre in the NCAA, and seemed to hit the ground running in a similar role early with the Flyers. Now in his third full NHL season, his role seems to be shrinking. His faceoff percentage has improved, once a weakness of his game. Cates could have his best years ahead of him, and could be a shrewd gamble if the Flyers are willing to part with his services.
Internal options
The good news for Leafs fans is that Fraser Minten has been excellent for the Toronto Marlies. As an AHL rookie, he is still young and inexperienced. It would be a lot for the Leafs to entrust him with a full-time role in the top nine, but he is continuing to impress. The best case scenario is that Minten continues his torrid point-per-game scoring pace, currently with four points in four games, impressing with his two way play.
Minten plays big, heavy, simple, and responsible, which will endear him to the Leafs. John Tavares cannot stave off fathers time forever, and might well sign elsewhere this summer, but Minten coming into his own as an NHLer while Matthews and Tavares are still excelling will be a massive boost to the Leafs. The Leafs are likely to have a similar patient approach as they do with Grebenkin, letting the AHL rookies put in at least a half-season of dominant play before considering a full-time promotion.
Minten is well on his way to completely passing the rest of the Marlies centre depth. Fellow rookie Jacob Quillan is a decorated defensive forward in the NCAA, but does not look to have any immediate path to the Leafs at this point. Ryan Tverberg and Nick Abruzzese might be a tad closer to a call-up, but neither fits the defensive archetype that the Leafs require. Easton Cowan cannot play until his junior season is over, but is playing centre for the London Knights. While an eventual centre role in the NHL is possible, it certainly will not be this season.
Verdict
Even more so than with Grebenkin on the wing, the Leafs have a fantastic long-term option at centre with Fraser Minten. An evaluation might be made closer to the deadline, but it is certainly possible for the Leafs to add another centre. It is possible that David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok are able to take on the third-line centre role, but Jarnkrok’s injury probably eliminates that possibility until the playoffs. Chances are this situation will have a clearer picture in a few months, but any trade to upgrade the third-line centre will likely be a rental.
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