As this is my first article for 6ix On Ice I thought I’d commence with a small introduction. I’ve been a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs for as long as I can remember. One of my core memories, as I’m sure is true for many of you, is the brutal Game 7 loss in 2013. In a rare moment of omnipotence, I predicted the game-winner as the Boston Bruins were bringing it down the ice, so I got up off the couch, and walked out of the room. The Bruins scored as my back was turned. I immediately went straight upstairs and cried myself to sleep.
Why I turned on the TV for the season opener in 2014 continues to elude me, as it does every single October. It wasn’t until almost a decade later that I sat down and watched the entire overtime (it was after the Leafs won their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning that I felt ready to relive that trauma). All that to say is that I’ve followed this team, I’ve seen them in their lows, and their slightly higher lows. I look forward to continuing this fandom, alongside such passionate readers, and invite you all to join me in my everlasting quest to answer the question, “Why am I a fan of this team?”
The Leafs have so far played 22 games in the 2024–25 NHL season. They currently stand at first in the division, fourth in the conference, and seventh in the league with 28 points and a 13–7–2 record. Last year, after 22 games, the Leafs stood at fourth in the division, sixth in the conference, and eleventh in the league, with 28 points and a 12–6–4 record. The topline numbers show an almost identical start to both seasons but anyone who has watched most of those 44 combined games will tell you that the way both teams have gotten here has been starkly different.
We thought we’d take a closer look at the start of this season, with a comparative eye towards last, and see exactly where things have differed.
Much better goaltending
The Leafs opened the 2023–24 season with a tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll. At the time, fans were relatively confident in this pairing as Samsonov had had a successful showing in 2022–23 with a .919 SV% over 40 starts and a 27–10 record. Joseph Woll showed flashes of brilliance starting seven times and putting up a .932 with a 6–1 record. However, Samsonov was truly horrific to start last season with an .878 SV% over 10 starts. Woll fared better, but expectedly dipped to a more reasonable .915 SV% over 12 starts. The result was an .898 SV% from the Leafs netminders.
This year, Toronto replaced Ilya Samsonov with Anthony Stolarz, which has turned out—at least at this point—to be a significant upgrade. Over 13 starts, he has posted a save percentage of .921. Joseph Woll was injured to start the season, which is certainly an area of concern as this was his fifth injury over his short career. However, in the games he has played, he has looked comfortable between the pipes posting a .922 SV%. Overall, the team’s save percentage has improved to .919.
And some better defence
One could argue that defence has been the biggest improvement to this team—and I will. On game 22 in the 2023–24 season, the Leafs iced the following defence pairings:
It is important to note that all three of John Klingberg, Timothy Liljegren, and Mark Giordano were out with injuries and illnesses.
In contrast, here is the defensive core at game 22 of the 2024–25 season:
| Morgan Rielly | Oliver Ekman–Larsson |
| Jake McCabe | Chris Tanev |
| Simon Benoit | Conor Timmins |
At first glance, the new defence corps appears as an improvement, and the statistics would bear that assumption out. In 2023–24, at this point in the season, in all strength situations, the Leafs had a goals against per 60 minutes rate of 3.21, which was higher than their expected goals against per 60 of 3.17. This season the ratio has flipped, with the Leafs boasting a goals against per 60 of 2.57 and an expected goals against per 60 of 2.86.
Looking at Corsi and Fenwick stats, the Leafs have a similar Corsi For percentage this year—49.59—compared to last—49.47. However, Fenwick differs significantly with last years Fenwick For percentage at 49.73 and this year’s at 50.99. This means that the Maple Leafs are now generating more unblocked shots per game than their opponents which is borne out by a 5.2% increase in the delta between Corsi For/60 and Fenwick For/60. In other words, the Leafs are blocking 5.2% more shots per 60 minutes than they were at this point last season.
But questionable offence
If the goaltending has markedly improved, and there is a notable improvement in the defence, how are we at the exact same point as last season? Put simply, the offence and special teams have been worse. It is imperative to begin with the injury woes that have plagued the forward core of the Maple Leafs this season. Compare the starting lineups from game 22 of both the 2023–24 season and this one:
2023-24:
| Matthew Knies | Auston Matthews | William Nylander |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | John Tavares | Mitch Marner |
| Nicholas Robertson | Max Domi | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Bobby McMann | David Kampf | Noah Gregor |
2024-25:
| Bobby McMann* | John Tavares | Mitch Marner |
| Nicholas Roberston | Pontus Holmberg | William Nylander |
| Nikita Grebenkin | Fraser Minten | Alex Nylander |
| Alexander Steeves | Connor Dewar | Steven Lorentz |
*Bobby McMann was injured during this game.
Currently, the Toronto Maple Leafs have eight forwards either injured or suspended. Of those eight forwards, six started game 22 of the 2023–24 season. Auston Matthews, the team’s Captain and runaway leading scorer has only played 13 of the 22 games. As a result of this constant turnover in the lineup, the Leafs are scoring less than expected. While last season the Leafs had a -.05 delta between Goals For/60 and Expected Goals For/60, this year the delta sits at -.25. However, the Goals For percentage has increased significantly compared to last season at 53.28% in 2024–25 vs 50.38% in 2023–24. This is further evidence that the offensive slowdown is being mitigated by better defensive play.
Special teams stuggles
Further compounding the Leafs offensive woes, special teams have been even worse than normal. Anyone who has followed this team is well aware that the power play has been a topic of concern for this entire era of the Leafs. Unfortunately, the power play has taken a severe dive so far this season. For the month of October 2024, the Leafs man advantage sat at a measly 7.9%, last in the NHL. Throughout November, it has improved to 20.3% moving them to 16th in the league. This is contrasted to the 24.2% the power play sat at last year.
The penalty kill has been a bright spot for the Leafs this year, compared to last year, providing further proof that the success of this team is being driven by goaltending and defence. This year’s penalty kill sits at 82.1% up from 79.2% last year.
Same results, different process
From a look at the overall numbers, it is obvious that the improvements to defence and goaltending are the main factors in the success the team has had in 2024–25 so far. This is further compounded by the offensive struggles in a team that has historically been able to score almost at will. The result is a Leafs team that sits on paper, almost exactly where they were this time last year. In future articles we will delve deeper into each aspect of this team, examining the coaching changes as well as individual player contributions.
Stats taken from https://www.naturalstattrick.com/.
