With the 4 Nations Face-Off rosters about to be named, the final moments of deliberation are upon us. Decisions must be made, as teams weigh reputation, the limited performances of this season, and teambuilding philosophies in trying to select the best team possible.
Some players, like Auston Matthews and William Nylander, are already named to their teams. Others, like Mitch Marner, are virtual locks to join them. The most interesting debates surround those who are difficult to get a read on, whose inclusion might come down to a matter of opinion.
Let’s take a look at one of the more interesting decisions involved, whether or not John Tavares should be named to Team Canada or not.
Production
Scoring at about a point per game this season, Tavares is right around the cutoff line for the roster if the team were simply selected by points. The process will be more complex than that, however. After accounting for position, Tavares will not have a case on this merit. His season did start slower, missing time and losing weight to an early season illness, so Tavares has at least shown some resilience to be in striking distance.
There are options ahead of Tavares in points that play more central roles in their team’s offence. Those hoping for his inclusion might point to the disparity of ice time and opportunity, which might be twisted against Tavares as well. Travis Konecny, for example, is outproducing Tavares and is leading the Philadelphia Flyers in scoring.
While Tavares has not won a Stanley Cup, he has scored some huge goals in his career, including some in a Team Canada uniform.
Position
Tavares is a centre which is usually useful. However, team Canada has a plethora of centre options. In fact, what might help Tavares more is that he is a left-shot, rarer among the potential options. While handedness matters quite a bit on the blueline, it is less meaningful up front. Still, if Canada does want left shots to play the left wing, or a balance of left-shot centres, it might help Tavares’ cause.
Position on the ice is one thing, but Tavares’ positioning within Hockey Canada deserves mention. Fans might be focused on picking the best possible team, but undoubtedly personal politics hold some weight. Tavares has routinely represented Canada well, including serving as captain in last season’s World Championship.
Most, if not all the players named to the team will have one experience with Hockey Canada, but Tavares clearly has a strong relationship to draw on. Hockey Canada knows his personality, and the same selflessness that saw him abdicate his Leafs captaincy is a testament to his willingness to put the team before his pride. On a team full of superstars the importance of this attitude is important. Tavares is far from the only player who would fit this description, but Canada knows what to expect from him.
Fit
The final, and perhaps the most important factor for Canada in filling out its roster will be how the pieces fit together. Canada will still need players to fill certain roles, penalty killers and defensive players, forecheckers and net front players, shot blockers and faceoff artists. The best players are often able to contribute in multiple areas, but the group as a whole still needs some level of balance. Of course, the players that are eventually named will impact each other in this sense as well. To this extent, Tavares being named is contingent on how much his skill set differentiates itself from other worthy candidates.
Tavares’ ideal spot on the power play is the bumper, a spot where he has plenty of competition. Players who are ahead of him on the depth chart, like Brayden Point and Sam Reinhart, play in this spot. While Tavares does have some ability to work the net front, other hopefuls like Sam Bennett and Tom Wilson are better suited, and bring a more defined physical edge.
Tavares is a good faceoff option, but others, like Anthony Cirelli, Ryan O’Reilly, and Sean Couturier are better suited to a fourth-line defensive specialist role. A long-range shooter might be required, where Steven Stamkos and Connor Bedard are better options. If a transition puck carrier is required, Matthew Barzal could get the call.
There are other players worth considering, such as Nick Suzuki, Brandon Hagel, Zach Hyman, Alexis Lafreniere, and many more. It is worth mentioning that Macklin Celebrini has played extremely well, but missing time with injury made an uphill battle even steeper.
Lineup
To illustrate this point further let’s take a look at a mock forward lineup, filling in the players most likely to be present.
Point — McDavid — Reinhart
Scheifele — MacKinnon — Marner
Marchand — Crosby — Stone
Bennett — Cirelli — Konecny
While putting together lines is another question altogether, this is a possible top nine group. A defensive centre is a likely prospect, and Cirelli is a very worthy choice. Hagel might be a good option as a winger for Cirelli, given their chemistry. One of Bennett or Wilson is quite likely, especially with Zach Hyman’s down season. Mark Scheifele and Travis Konecny are outproducing Tavares this season, and provide a bit more speed. In truth, it might be a left-wing spot on one of the top two lines where Tavares fits best, or perhaps in Cirelli’s fourth-line centre spot.
An outright spot is fairly unlikely, but given his versatility and humility, Tavares could be the ideal 13th forward or injury replacement. Mark Stone is often injured, and is currently as well. While options for an extra forward exist, like O’Reilly, Suzuki, Hagel, Barzal, Wilson, or Bedard, Tavares can better fit into whichever spot is needed.
Bottom line
It still might go either way, but on this basis, Tavares has a good chance to make Team Canada. If he is named, there will certainly be those who doubt the decision. Part of this is due to his being on the Leafs, their collective failures and volume of haters. Some of it will be due to his NHL cap hit, as players are often judged as much for their cost as they are for their play on the ice. In the end, Tavares is one of the many worthy options that Team Canada will have.
