Leafs fans should be all smiles, we sit tied for first in the division, tied for third in the conference, and fifth in the league. However, it’s currently a day that ends in “Y” and so Leafs Nation is worried about the fact that, frankly, we look like we suck.
Honestly, they have a point. Our underlying numbers don’t look great since Matthews returned, we’re getting outshot, and it seems like we’re relying on elite goaltending. Candidly though, I don’t want to write a piece about how the Leafs are secretly terrible and how this regular season success might not translate to the playoffs (to be crystal clear, I am not saying that I don’t believe these things, just that I don’t want to write about those things right now).
This piece will go through the last 12 games of the Toronto Maple Leafs 2024–25 season, those with Auston Matthews back before getting re-injured on Saturday. We’ll have a look at the numbers, see why Leafdom is up in arms, but we’re not going to draw conclusions.
The last 12
Over the last 12 games, the Leafs have outscored their opponents 41–36 for a +5 goal differential. This lands them at 13th over the time period, but their record is 8–4–0.
The underlying numbers bring even more worry. The Leafs sit at 31st in the league in Corsi For percentage with 45.97%. In Fenwick For they’re 27th with 46.73%. Over the course of the entire season so far, they sit at 23rd in CF% (48.17%) and 20th in FF% (49.18%).
Looking at each game, the Leafs managed to generate 30+ shots in only two games while generating under 20 in five. They lost the xGF% in seven of the games, with four of those gaining a <40% share of expected goals for.
So why are we winning? Put simply, PDO. The Leafs are finally the beneficiary of above-average goaltending (please try not to think about the literal pebble in Anthony Stolarz’s knee). They currently sit at third in the league over the entire season in save percentage with .906. Over the last 12 games, that’s increased slightly to .912, until a blowout against the New York Islanders last night.
Shooting percentage is likely what explains the discrepancy we’ve been discussing. Over the whole season, the Leafs are shooting at 10.8%, a middling 12th position in the NHL. The last 12 games however, SH% has jumped significantly to 12.81%, good for seventh in the show.
The boost to both shooting and save percentage bumped our PDO stat higher as well. For the 22 games to start the season—which includes AM34’s absence—the Leafs’ PDO was 1.008, 11th in the league. Over the last 12 games, Toronto achieved a PDO stat of 1.034. Overall, across the season, the Leafs are at 1.015, good for third.
Do I care?
Ultimately, are the underlying numbers cause for concern? Maybe. Are we perhaps relying a little heavily on luck and our record might not be a true reflection of the team? Sure. At this point in the season, do I care? Nope. And here’s why.
First of all, I live in Toronto and the sun sets at 3 pm right now, if it comes out at all. The Leafs winning hockey games brings some light to the darkness that is December evenings and I don’t really care how they do it.
On a more serious note, this is a new Leafs team. Craig Berube’s style of hockey prioritizes defence—something we fans have been praying for for almost a decade. The Leafs have a bonafide elite-level tandem, Stolarz’s bum knee notwithstanding. Our MVP candidate was injured for nine games and is back missing games.
To recap, is there cause for concern for this team? Yeah probably. Is there a clear area where this team has to improve? Yes. Am I currently sticking my fingers in my ears and going “la la la la la” when someone brings it up? Also yes.
So here’s my pitch to Leafs Nation, let’s all collectively agree to enjoy the good luck we’re having. Let’s hunker down, get through the twilight weeks of 2024, and return groggy-eyed and sleep-deprived in the new year. I’m sure there will be plenty about this Leafs team to be concerned.
