The Toronto Maple Leafs are second in the Atlantic Division heading into Monday’s clash with the Winnipeg.
But they just got smoked by the New York Islanders, who the Leafs seem to be modelling their game after.
From a surface level, the two teams couldn’t be more different.
Heading into Monday’s game the Leafs are averaging 3.1 goals per 60 minutes, good for 12th in the entire NHL.
On the other hand, the Islanders’ offensive woes have been well-documented this year, and their 27th–ranked goals per 60 is nothing to be excited about.
However, under the hood this Leafs team might have a lot of similarities to not this edition of the Islanders, but the one that was coached by Barry Trotz just a few years earlier.
The talent and resources spent up front are also contrasting, Toronto’s reputation over the last few years under Sheldon Keefe has been one focused on superstars with incredible skill sets generating scoring opportunities off the rush while the rest of the bottom-six does its absolute best to tread water.
A change from Keefe
It’s a reputation not without proof and merit. Per Sportlogiq’s metrics, under Sheldon Keefe last season, the Leafs had the 10th highest chances off of rushes, the 2nd most slot shots, and the 5th highest expected goals. This year with Berube? They rank 32nd, 20th, and 23rd in all three respective categories.
At least half of this stark change is the system the players are under now. Sheldon Keefe’s philosophy with the Leafs focused heavily on controlling the puck. If the entry wasn’t there, hold on to the puck, circle back and try again. It led to the elite play drivers on the team having more creative license on the puck, and a very high percentage of controlled zone entries.
However, on the flip side, this style of play hung out some of Toronto’s less talented players out to dry. Connor Timmins notably was someone who really struggled under Sheldon Keefe. Keefe’s commitment to Toronto having really organized breakouts, with control over the puck and options on the wing flying down the ice meant that:
- The Leafs forwards had to really commit to getting back to retrieve the puck or support their defensemen under duress (which led to all those passes into the slot from defensemen)
- It was easier for opposing teams to hem Toronto into their zone. Under Keefe, there were stretches throughout a game where the Leafs would get hemmed in their zone defensively repeatedly because the team tried to get too cute on the breakout.
Under Berube that mindset has completely shifted, and it has led to a far different-looking Leafs team. First off, as expected, Berube’s tight forechecking style has led to Toronto opting for way more dump and chases.
It’s led to a lot less dangerous scoring opportunities for the Leafs, who’ve seen less sustained offensive zone time this year and fewer rush chances.
This has been balanced out with Toronto’s vastly improved defensive play. While the Leafs still graded as an above-average to sometimes elite defence under Keefe’s tenure, Berube’s system has a different feel defensively.
The Timmins case study
It’s why for the most part this season, Conor Timmins has thrived under Berube. The defenseman has often struggled with breakouts under Keefe, where the philosophy of keeping possession of the puck led to bad decision-making under pressure.
Under Berube, Timmins has the license to either bomb that beautiful stretch pass down the seam to a streaking forward if he has time and space, but also the luxury to flip the puck down the ice if needed.
This has resulted in lots of icings near the end of games when Toronto is protecting a lead, but for the most part, Toronto hasn’t had many self-inflicted errors defensively leading to goals in the back of their own net.
They’ve sacrificed some of the dynamic traits of their offense under Berube but on the defensive end have also forced opposing teams to truly beat them, rather than beating themselves. Even when they ice the puck, they allow themselves the time to reset defensively instead of allowing the opposing team to get a cycle going.
With the team rarely coughing up super high-danger opportunities and less consistent offensive zone time to opponents, they’ve generally made the lives of their goaltenders easier, and those goalies have in turn given the Leafs William M. Jennings Award-level goaltending.
Playoff type hockey
This Leafs team has all the hallmarks of what made Berube’s 2019 St. Louis Blues effective. A strong defensive unit with multiple players who can log over 25 minutes a night if needed, a strong forechecking unit up front, and a rock solid to elite performance in net every night.
Berube’s system has come under fire in recent weeks as Toronto continues to struggle to generate scoring chances. Those criticisms are fair. A team with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares should never struggle to generate chances even if they don’t always go in.
However, the downfall of Toronto’s offence in the playoffs has often been their inability to translate that elite regular season rush offence into a playoff setting with any modicum of success.
It’s for those reasons that I’m willing to give Berube and his system time. Toronto’s free-wheeling, high-octane, possession-oriented playstyle under Keefe hasn’t translated well against a tight forechecking playoff team.
It translates even worse against NHL playoff officiating where holds, hooks and slashes are largely ignored, making it easier for teams to defend and disrupt these dynamic skilled players.
If there’s anything Leafs fans have realized by now, come playoff time, all the games are largely dump-ins. Most of the scoring opportunities come off of special teams, and a forecheck that forces opposing teams into big mistakes or sustained offensive zone time.
It’s clear that Berube’s vision for this team is one that he believes is the only true way to win come playoff time. It’s a system that relies on a consistent motor from its forwards, and defencemen who can efficiently gather retrievals and make quick decisions.
Changes still needed
It helps that Toronto has a bevy of capable puck movers from the back end this year to complement that system, Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s contributions on that aspect of the game don’t get enough credit.
Toronto still likely needs to add another piece offensively, another key factor of Berube’s Blues teams was his ability to rotate all four lines. Max Domi, Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson’s chemistry and elite play the last three games may quell the immediate need in the short term, but it’s not a line I’m confident with come playoff time against a Florida or Colorado.
While Brad Treliving continues to work the phones on that matter, the team, now short Auston Matthews again will continue to have to dig in as a team to keep their Atlantic Division Championship aspirations alive. Regardless what happens the next few months, one thing is clear:
The Leafs might not be as fun to watch these days offensively, but it might just be the style of hockey they need to learn to play consistently to hit that next stage in the playoffs.
