After an explosive pre-season, Nicholas Robertson was thought to finally break into a top-six role with the Toronto Maple Leafs, especially with the lack of left-wing depth to start the season. However, Robertson only had two goals in October and November. Combine this lack of production with multiple trade requests in the off-season and a large part of the fanbase wanted the young winger traded.
However, December has been better for Robertson—on a new third line centered by Max Domi and with winger Bobby McMann—with three goals and four assists in the last 10 games. In this article, we will examine arguments for why the Maple Leafs should keep or trade Robertson, a question that’s been asked for over a year at this point.
Know when to hold em’
Stop me if you heard this story before: the Maple Leafs pour years of development into a prospect. However, the player does not get an extended opportunity with the Maple Leafs or just can’t seem to make the jump from the AHL to the NHL.
The Maple Leafs then trade this player, usually swapping “struggling” prospects with another team, or as a throw-in as part of a larger deal. The prospect the Maple Leafs traded away then becomes a very serviceable player for the team he was traded to. In recent memory, there are several examples such as Carter Verhaeghe, Mason Marchment, Sean Durzi, etc.
Now, some of these players were part of a good return, such as Sean Durzi helping land a few solid years of Jake Muzzin. However, perhaps the Maple Leafs have something with Robertson and he just needs some more time to develop, something the Maple Leafs have been surprisingly patient with. After all, Robertson is still only 23 years old and scored 14 goals in 56 games last season.
Outside of the top six goal scorers in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, the remaining “pure” goal scorers on the Maple Leafs are McMann and Robertson. As we noted in our deep data dive about secondary scoring, the Maple Leafs are desperately in need of some more scoring this season. Trading away a goal scorer who is starting to find his offensive game when the team needs secondary scoring is a bit foolish, especially when that player plays limited power play time.
Furthermore, there is always an element of risk when trading players. There is no guarantee that the players you get back will produce as you would expect them to. There could be issues with the traded players fitting into the team system or the locker room. Other than Ryan O’Rielly, which forward trade deadline acquisitions have worked out well in the Matthews era?
The one criticism Robertson has faced in his time with the Maple Leafs is his defensive play. Last season in 56 games, Robertson had 34 hits, 24 blocks, and 18 giveaways. So far in 30 games this season, he has 33 hits, 14 blocks, and five giveaways. The hits and blocks per game are higher, while the giveaways per game is lower. Furthermore, he is tenth on the team in on-ice even-strength goals against with 11 this season.
Trading away a young player who can score in the bottom six and who has demonstrated a willingness to change and improve his game may prove to come back and bite the Leafs. There is still more than half the season left to play, so we will see if Robertson can continue to score.
Know when to fold em’
The arguments for trading Robertson are also valid.
If a goal scorer only scores two goals in his first 20 games, can he be considered an effective and reliable goal scorer?
Robertson’s playoff numbers do not inspire much confidence either. In the six playoff games he played against the Boston Bruins last season, he had zero goals and zero assists.
Even the new third line of McMann, Domi, and Robertson—which is finally producing some secondary scoring in December—seem to be hemmed in their zone often and are perhaps more of a defensive liability as a unit than wanted. Is there a better third line combination of players either internally, externally, or combinations thereof?
The Maple Leafs are apparently in the market for a third-line centre, which makes sense, they do have a hole there. Domi has shown that he is better suited as a winger and it is certainly not optimal as a 3C if the Maple Leafs want to go deep in the playoffs.
With Pierre Lebrun saying that Yanni Gourde would possibly be willing to waive his modified no-trade clause for the Maple Leafs, it seems like a match made in heaven. Gourde plays the style the Maple Leafs are looking for and can score goals in the playoffs as he did in the back-to-back Stanley Cup playoff wins with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
However, what assets would be necessary to acquire this player? Gourde is in his final season of a six-year, $5.167M AVV contract. The Maple Leafs currently have just over $630k in available cap space. If Gourde is available, there will likely be other teams looking to pick up the centreman. Quality assets will likely have to be moved out if the Maple Leafs want the Seattle Kraken to retain salary and to compete with trade packages from other teams.
So the question becomes: have the Maple Leafs seen enough of Robertson in his 100+ NHL games to feel comfortable moving him as part of a package for the 33-year-old centre? Or part of a different package for a different player who can score goals more consistently and in the playoffs?
The reality of the situation is that the Maple Leafs are in a “win-now” window. We have also seen how well this Maple Leafs team fared in the playoffs over the last eight years. In light of continual playoff disappointments, it makes sense to spend whatever is necessary to put together the best playoff roster year after year with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander all still under contract and still in the prime of their careers.
What to do?
For me personally, I feel there are merits to both sides of this Robertson coin. On one hand, there is a young player who has shown to be willing to change his game to stay in the line-up and is finally starting to put pucks into the back of the net. However, if the Maple Leafs involve Robertson in a trade that allows the Stanley Cup parade on Yonge Street to finally happen in reality (instead of inside my head), many Maple Leafs fans, myself included, would be much obliged to make that trade.
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