Auston Matthews’ first season as captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs has not gone according to plan. Clearly he has been battling some kind of injury all season, often out of the lineup and diminished when able to take the ice. All the rhetoric suggests that, whatever the issue is, it will not necessarily be any different come the spring. At this point there is ample speculation about the nature or timeline of the injury but nothing confirmed, too thick a fog for any meaningful long term forecasting.
What Matthews and the Leafs can do, and frankly will need to, is find a way to navigate the presented challenges and opportunities within the confines of this season.
And with some star players seemingly headed for the trade block, using the LTIR loophole the Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa Bay Lightning have taken advantage of is certainly not a bad idea. How would Elias Pettersson look in the blue and white?
Let’s take a look at how the Leafs might be able to have their most successful season despite this unfortunate and mysterious injury.
On Matthews
One might quip about the weight of the captaincy, given John Tavares’ resurgent season. While Matthews’ performance issues are clearly injury-related, the psychological effect is understandable. With the added asterisks of headlining Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, the captaincy was a symbolic calling to the spotlight. This is his time to lead, his chance to prove himself a champion. Clearly being so hobbled, sidelined from these moments would be frustrating. The other clear revelation is that he is motivated to defy adversity regardless, and has already travelled great lengths to do so.
Beyond that it is unfair to commit to any armchair prognoses of how the injury is being handled. The Leafs have a reputable medical staff and robust sports science programs, certainly among the best in the league. This should be the guide for any with conflicted thoughts about Matthews playing in the 4 Nations Face-Off as well. The Leafs should want Matthews to go and play if he can, as it could be a great opportunity to begin a winning legacy. Obviously this should not come at the Leafs expense.
Most of all, if Matthews had it his way he would be in full health from here on out. Unfortunately, that is not where things are now. Especially tempting will be moralizing how the injury is handled, building a narrative based on such limited information. Time is running out for Matthews to prove he is ready, but the body can only be hastened so much. It is a stretch to call it selfish for him to want to represent his country at a league-sanctioned event without being privy to all the information, regardless of how optics might seem.
Lineup issues
The Leafs are not as good without Matthews in the lineup, even in the diminished form he has mustered this season. One of the league’s premier players, his absence is a blow to the Leafs. Still, every team deals with injuries, just as every challenge is an opportunity. Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares will have to prove themselves. So far they have been succeeding, as have others further down the lineup.
The team might not control the play as often as usual, although in hindsight a drop in possession stats or expected goals might have been inevitable going from Sheldon Keefe to Craig Berube. Without Matthews the Leafs will be in even tougher, not only as a goal scorer but also as a legitimate Selke Trophy candidate. Playing on the penalty kill under Berube shows us that Matthews has the drive to develop this reputation as his career progresses, a fantastic vision of what he might become as captain.
Needless to say, the team will be challenged, the need for a third line centre upgrade put under further stress. Opportunity knocks once more, as David Kampf and Pontus Holmberg will have chances to step up. If the team is able to forge a strong identity without their most vital player it will be a testament to their unity.
Outside help
Fans will be tempted to consider the possibility of using LTIR, keeping Matthews out of the lineup until playoffs and using the cap space to bolster the team. In theory, this approach has some merit, as well as some precedent. Recently the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights were able to do so with Nikita Kucherov and Mark Stone, winning the Stanley Cup with a lineup well over the salary cap.
In practice, things are more complex. The Leafs do not necessarily have the trade assets to go big game hunting, already without their 2025 1st round pick. Still, the team would be able to add some complementary players with higher cap hits, or save the expense of paying for salary retention on pending UFAs. A new market of players becomes available to them at this point. Players like Jeff Petry or Alec Martinez on defence, or forwards like Mikael Granlund or Brandon Tanev might not be the headliners of the trade deadline, but the Leafs would at least be getting a better trade price because of their elevated cap hits.
Pettersson
The more ambitious fans might float the idea to trade for a high-end player who seems to be available, Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks. Falling into turmoil, the Canucks appear to have a rift, and more and more fingers are pointing towards Pettersson being the one on the way out. Needless to say fans around the league are dreaming up ways to acquire Pettersson.
Putting Matthews on LTIR would make Pettersson affordable for this season, but with seven years left on his deal after this one, it hardly matters. The Leafs would likely be forcing one of John Tavares or Mitch Marner out of the lineup, perhaps even more beyond that. Adding another high-priced skilled forward is a strange concept given the scrutiny the Leafs core four has endured.
The Leafs simply do not have the assets to contend with the packages other teams will be able to put together to acquire Pettersson. The Canucks should look to upgrade their blueline in the trade, and want to contend. Starting with Rasmus Andersson from the Calgary Flames or Bowen Byram from the Buffalo Sabres is one’s thing, but a centre to backfill for the Canucks would likely be required as well. These are a lot more enticing than adding Morgan Rielly and David Kampf from the Leafs, and those teams more desperate to make a change as well.
In fact, acquiring a player like Andersson or Byram alone might even be too expensive for the Leafs to manage. The point should be made that if the Leafs decide to swing big on a player, regardless of Matthews LTIR status, it should be a defenceman. Although the blueline is as strong as ever the Leafs lack a true Norris Trophy contender. If there is one area the Leafs are different from most contenders it is in this fact. A player like Andersson might not change that, though his age, contract, play style, and disposition undoubtedly upgrade the unit in both the present and future. A player like Byram is a swing for the fences that his progression continues. Losing an imperfect but important defender in Rielly to do so might not be progress at all.
While not the high-impact player outlined, if the Leafs deal with the Canucks it might be Vincent Desharnais who is the more sensible target. A defensive right shot, Desharnais has been off to a rocky start after signing as a UFA this summer. Desharnais is a late bloomer, unheralded, and lacking puck skills, but he is undoubtedly an upgrade over Philippe Myers or the injured Jani Hakanpaa.
Bottom line
The truth is, the Leafs might not have the luxury of LTIRing Matthews. Perhaps, in some convoluted best-case scenario Matthews might return soon, shape up for the 4 Nations Face-Off, go onto LTIR, return for the playoffs, and return to top form throughout. Without threading the needle, top form from here on out is the better option.
What seems most likely is that Matthews might be in and out of the lineup throughout, sacrificing the 4 Nations Face-Off and some key games for the Leafs, playing through more and more pain as the season continues. This certainly is not the best news, but the Leafs might be able to perform regardless. Currently jostling for top spot in the Atlantic Division, the Leafs have cobbled together a strong first half of the season.
