When looking at pure point totals, this year’s Toronto Maple Leafs team does not seem too dissimilar to last year’s at the halfway point of the season. At 54 this season, the 2024–25 Leafs sit four points ahead of their predecessors. But under the hood, and stylistically, the two teams are anything but similar.
The biggest material change within the organization is obviously Craig Berube. None of the core four were moved after another Round 1 playoff loss, and the only real impact player the team lost in the offseason was Tyler Bertuzzi. But with Berube calling the shots, the team looks completely different.
So let’s look at how the two teams compare, and which version of the Leafs looks more promising.
The goaltending isn’t comparable
The biggest reason the Leafs sit atop the Atlantic Division at the halfway mark is easily the goaltending. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have combined to put up Vezina-calibre numbers, and even with Stolarz now hurt, the Leafs sit sixth in the league in goals against (being only one of two teams in the top six with 41 games played).
The team owns the sixth-best goals against above expected so far, at over -10 according to MoneyPuck, a testament to how good the whole goalie situation has been. Take away some below-average play from Matt Murray and Dennis Hildeby, and it’s not a stretch to say Toronto has a top-three goalie tandem in the league.
And compared to last year, it’s not even close.
By this point of 2024, Ilya Samsonov had been waived after starting the year 5–2–6 with a putrid .862 Sv%. The Leafs had given up 133 goals (compared to 113 this year), were running a Hildeby and Martin Jones tandem, and were desperately looking for answers in the crease.
And all the credit for this one goes to GM Brad Treliving. Signing Stolarz has been quite literally the best move of the offseason, getting the league leader in save percentage for two years and $2.5M AAV. The Woll extension also looks like a steal, assuming he stays healthy enough to be at least a top-end 1B moving forward.
One could argue this is the difference between the two teams. One has good goaltending, one did not. Simple as that.
And while I don’t completely agree, it’s safe to say the biggest change in the Leafs has been in the blue paint.
North-South hockey
Stylistically, the two teams also have quite a few key differences. Craig Berube is known for his North-South style, limiting cross-ice passing and neutral zone regroups. If the transition game is stuffed, dump the puck in and go get it.
Compared to Sheldon Keefe, who focused on puck control and possession, we can see why the Leafs offensive stats, especially expected stats, have taken a hit.
Not only are the Leafs generating fewer chances this season, but they are holding the puck less, spending less time in the offensive zone, and generally having a harder time putting the puck in the net.
After 41 games in 2023–24, the Leafs had scored 144 goals. They finished the season second in scoring. This year, they’ve scored 129 goals. At 5v5, they’ve scored eight fewer times.
Part of this is Auston Matthews being out for extended stretches, but under the hood things are similar. The Leafs own a 48.44 Corsi percentage and just a 50.04 expected goals percentage at 5v5 according to Natural Stat Trick.
Last season, these numbers stood at 50.97% and 50.51%, respectively.
The thing is, the Leafs expected this. And they think it will help them in the postseason.
As we’ve watched for what, eight seasons now? The Leafs offence dries up in April. The game gets tighter and heavier, and the Leafs possession-based strategy fails to generate offence the way they do in the regular season.
Berube has won a Stanley Cup playing this heavy game, and knows that the Leafs need a lot more physicality and consistent effort in theirs to succeed.
Toronto has never forechecked harder or played dump-and-chase more. It’s taking time to get used to, for us as fans and for the players, but the idea is that these reps in the regular season will translate a lot better when we get to the playoffs.
North-South hockey is making a comeback as the league plays copycat with the recent Stanley Cup champions. Leafs management and coaching are on the same page, wanting a much more gritty style than under Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe.
Chris Tanev is good
Simply put, Chris Tanev is the best Leafs defenceman we’ve seen in a long time. He’s come just as advertised.
He has singe-handily brought stability to Toronto’s backend that they lost last year with the decline of T.J. Brodie, and has instead brought a true top pair to the team they did not have in 2023–24.
The trio of good goaltending, Berube’s more focused defensive schemes, and Tanev in the defensive zone have this Leafs team looking miles better than last year’s defensively. Not all the credit goes to the hometown Tanev, but he deserves so much love.
He’s changed the whole blueline.
So, who’s better?
It really comes down to whether you trust the eye test or the under-the-hood stats. With league-average goaltending, last year’s team would have been a top-three team in the league at the halfway point. Their scoring was up, their special teams were humming, and the stars were having career years.
But personally, I love the vision of this season. There’s no question Toronto is playing tighter defensively, letting nothing get to the middle of the ice or around the net. The bigger bodies on the blueline help clear everything out, and I trust this system a lot more in the playoffs.
Offensively, this year’s team is definitely worse. But not as much as the expected stats look, in my opinion. Matthews has either been out or playing hurt, and the bottom six has been a disaster. With a healthy Matthews and an addition in the middle of the lineup, there’s little doubt the Leafs won’t be a top 10 offence again.
We’ll see what happens in April, but at least it can’t be that much worse than last year. If the goaltending holds up, there’s lots of room for optimism in Leaf Nation.
