With the NHL season at its halfway point, Leaf fans are firmly focused on the here and now. The team is playing a more mature style, and has the personnel to do so, leading to some really stable results.
Still, improvements are likely on the way, as the trade deadline is approaching. The team has several prospects that might be traded to upgrade the team, either gone this season or on the team in the years ahead.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the Leafs best prospects, offering a midseason re-ranking.
Hidden gems?
Sam McCue and Victor Johansson
These two standouts symbolize several younger players who could make a name for themselves in the coming years. For now, McCue has the makings of an OHL power forward, with the requisite size and aggresion, and a growing scoring touch.
Meanwhile Johansson is excelling in Swedish Junior, leading his team in assists as a defenceman, on top of playing games in the SHL. For a player who is still expected to grow in size and strength, this professional debut is an accomplishment.
Marlies staples (15–11)
William Villeneuve: impressive offence, continued growth from the blueliner.
Jacob Quillan: solid AHL debut for the defensive centre, chipping in.
Ryan Tverberg: unfortunately more injuries, and a big step backwards production wise. Turning 23 at the end of the month, there is still time.
Alex Steeves: plays direct and has some skill, but did not stand out in the NHL. Were he a bit bigger, stronger, faster it might work, but he plays an honest game and can fill in for emergencies.
Roni Hirvonen: his scoring rate is slightly up, closer to 0.5 points per game this season. Despite size gets his hands dirty, willing combatant at the net front and along boards.
Mikko Kokkonen: reprising a role in the AHL as Mister Smart, safe and reliable. Turning 24 this month, the next couple years will be key for any NHL hopes.
This tier is composed of AHLers, admittedly some of the less discussed. There are lots of traits to appreciate within this group, and many could follow Steeves’ example by taking on an NHL shift. Still, these are relative long shots to make the Leafs on a full time basis.
To some extent this group is defined by a lack of high end traits. These players have worked hard to become well rounded and responsible play. As much as fans might grow attached to their optimistic visions and projections of these prospects, there is not much chance that they will carry much weight in trade negotiations.
Notables (10–6)
Noah Chadwick: production might seem decreased, but goals per game is up and he is fourth on his team in scoring. A 6’4″ right-shot defenceman, as well as a captain, there is a lot to like. Chadwick will graduate to the AHL next season, if not at the end of his WHL season.
Miroslav Holinka: Czechia’s strong performance at the U20 World Junior Championship starred other players, but Holinka was integral to the top six forward group. His WHL scoring is underwhelming, but he has size, skill, and plays an honest and mature style.
Topi Niemela: the production seems to have stalled, but he will need a strong two way play to garner any NHL consideration with the Leafs. Especially with Conor Timmins in the lineup it might be impossible for Niemela to get a look.
Cade Webber: a towering left-shot defenceman, Webber is holding down a regular spot as a recently 24-year-old AHL rookie. Another year or two of AHL seasoning might yet be in order, but Webber will not be scoring his way into the NHL. One might think of him coming for Simon Benoit’s spot over that time frame.
Ben Danford: one of the more surprising 1st round picks in 2024, Danford has underwhelmed offensively. Still, his strength is his defensive game, and he is maintaining a big role for his OHL team.
This tier has a clearer vision of their paths to the NHL, albeit on different timelines. While there are no guarantees, these players look like they have a chance. They might not be involved in many trade talks, as teams might prefer draft capital of similar value. Many of these players are prototypical for certain roles, meaning teams could feel fondly about one of these prospects.
Key pieces (5–1)
Artur Akhtyamov: a great start to his rookie AHL season, Akhtyamov leads the Marlies in starts, has a winning record, and has had strong moments. There is no need to rush, but he is continuing to stack good seasons together.
Nikita Grebenkin: a power winger with a magnetic enthusiasm, Grebenkin impressed during an NHL call-up. He will need some poise to let more of his skill take hold in the future, but the tools are there. Power wingers are always en vogue for Craig Berube, and there is a good chance that Grebenkin gets into a greater number of NHL games next season.
Dennis Hildeby: repeating his breakout AHL rookie season would have been good, but finding some success in the NHL is even better. The time is not now for regular NHL action, but Hildeby is already pushing for third-string duties outright. This is a huge deal for the Leafs, especially given the injury histories of their NHL tandem.
Fraser Minten: another player who has played for the Leafs this season, Minten still needs some time before truly imposing himself in the NHL. The size, habits, strength, and skills seem to make his NHL arrival a question of when. While he may not be a high end top line centre prospect, the Leafs do not need him to be. Instead, Minten can be the stabilizing two way centre the Leafs roster currently needs.
Easton Cowan: a tough World Junior performance left many sour, but Cowan still led Team Canada in points. He has a solid offensive toolkit, but he is not a puck-dominant play driver like Mitch Marner or William Nylander. Instead, Cowan will find his best self in the details of the game, forechecking, backchecking, support passing, board battles, net front plays, and even penalty killing. Like Minten, he would not be a focal point on rebuilding teams hoping for a top-line player, but his skills are complementary to those types of elite players. This is good news for the Leafs.
This is the top tier of Leafs prospects, though there are other tiers above on a global scale. Still, the Leafs have cobbled together a decent group of prospects despite their limited draft capital over the Auston Matthews era.
For that same reason, they will carry the most weight in trade negotiations. As the Leafs are already without their 2025 1st round pick, any significant deadline shopping might be doomed to include prospects in this tier. One way or another, these will be an important part of the Leafs future. While some might think two goalies are redundant, the fable of the Leafs trading Tuukka Rask should serve as a warning.
