There has been a lot of waiver activity over the past couple of days, including the St. Louis Blues waiving two-time Stanley Cup champion Brandon Saad. After going unclaimed, he and the Blues decided to terminate his contract mutually, making Saad a free agent. With that, the midseason Saad sweepstakes are underway.
Does Saad have anything left to offer a contender? Is there a fit with the Leafs? Let’s take a closer look at if the Leafs should sign Saad and what impact he might have on the roster.
Personal cost
Playing for keeps is clearly on Saad’s heart, as his agreeing to terminate his contract will come at a personal cost. Clearly Saad wants to play in the NHL instead of the AHL, but it is fair to imply that he wants to join a contending team that has a need for his skill set.
His previous cap hit was too much for any team to handle, symbolized by his passing unclaimed through waivers. A more team-friendly deal is inevitable, and would make his contributions more palatable.
Still, Saad walked away from money to avoid playing in the AHL. Joining a contender might see him in the exact same situation if he does not hit the ground running with his next team. This would be a very unfortunate development for Saad. A weaker team might be able to guarantee more playing time or a secure spot higher in the lineup. The contract termination reveals a competitive and prideful nature that lends itself to believing there will be higher aspirations from Saad. As such, a good team with a need for his skill set is the ideal fit.
What can Saad bring
A look at the player card below shows that it is a down season for Saad. Notably, his shooting percentage is the lowest it has been since 2017–18, and roughly 25% less than his career average. The 2017–18 season was the last time that Saad was scoring at less than a 20-goal pace, a pace he would still be on were it not for his depressed shooting percentage.
Saad is not the biggest player, but plays a heavy game. Most of his shots come from the slot or the net front, as Saad is willing and able to battle in the tough areas. He still has some burst to his stride, though Saad is not necessarily an overwhelming physical force. His lack of high-end size, strength, and speed does not hold him back from this net-front style of play. In short, Saad will score more goals than he will assists.
His contributions elsewhere will not be outstanding. Saad is not a dominant puck carrier or forechecker, and should be thought of as a complementary piece to a line requiring some net-front presence. He had been playing in the Blues top six at points this season before slowly sliding down the lineup and out of favour altogether. The Blues are by no means a powerhouse, and even an underdog to grab a playoff spot, which might not inspire much confidence in his fit on the top six of better teams.
His role has often been higher on his teams’ depth charts, which might lead to his strong possession stats relative to his team. Saad more often starts his shifts in the offensive zone, riding shotgun as a henchman for more skilled teammates that drive the line.
With the Leafs
Surprisingly, perhaps, Saad seems like a great fit with the Leafs. Under GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube, there has been a clear emphasis on becoming a heavier team. On offence, this means players who play forcefully and direct, able to carve out space at the net front. The Leafs have been able to find a number of forwards who do so, and their impact on scoring more has been evident.
Unfortunately, many of these inside scorers have dealt with multiple absences. John Tavares, Matthew Knies, and Max Pacioretty have been dealing with injuries, at times leaving Bobby McMann as the only true net-front option the Leafs have. Even in his finished form, Saad is currently more effective than call-ups like Fraser Minten, Nikita Grebenkin, and Alex Steeves. Especially given the injury concerns to Pacioretty, and to an extent Knies, the Leafs might well have been looking to add some insurance in this area.
The Leafs have a lot more of the skills that Saad requires of his linemates to succeed. Even outside the full health top six, the Leafs have Max Domi who can help with the puck carrying and playmaking. With limited trade assets, as well as other more pressing holes on the roster, the Leafs would get a low-cost upgrade were they to sign Saad. Adding a third-line centre is the most dire, and likely the most expensive upgrade the Leafs will seek at the deadline. At full health, the Leafs might prefer all three of Knies, Pacioretty, and McMann ahead of Saad in the lineup, but full health is an unlikely luxury.
Verdict
Saad still has some good hockey left, and his championship experience would be seen as a plus. As a potential trade target, Saad would be a strong option for the Leafs, though as a cheap midseason UFA, the Leafs could not hope to do better. The Leafs should be very interested, though they will not be the only team in the Saad sweepstakes. Saad will have some choice, as other contenders like the Edmonton Oilers or New Jersey Devils might be interested as well.
