The Toronto Maple Leafs have officially fallen out of first place in the Atlantic Division. They currently sit a point back of the Florida Panthers, with a game in hand. If the playoffs started tomorrow, we would be treated to a battle of Ontario with the Ottawa Senators, who are currently on a four-game win streak against Toronto.
The team this year doesn’t feel good. We seemed to have solved our goaltending problem, until Anthony Stolarz got injured. Our blueline seemed better in the offseason, until Morgan Reilly forgot he’s supposed to be a number one defenceman. Injuries have devastated the forward corps and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, there’s a lack of secondary scoring.
Max Domi, Connor Dewar, Pontus Holmberg, Ryan Reaves, David Kampf, Steven Lorentz, Nick Robertson, and Max Pacioretty have a combined goal total of 26 in 301 games. If you remove Nick Robertson, who played well against the Wild on Wednesday, the total goals fall to 18. This is untenable.
The defence has combined for 11 total goals all season, last in the league. The only players actually driving offence on this team are Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, Bobby McMann, and Matthew Knies. Two of those players are currently injured, and Matthews has also missed significant time this season.
“But we’re in first!”
This has been the common refrain to critics this season. Let’s take a closer look.
As mentioned above, the Leafs are now second in the division. We’re fifth in the conference, and 10th in the league. Toronto sits 16th in Corsi For Percentage, 17th in Fenwick For Percentage, and 17th in expected Goals For Percentage.
Toronto is eighth in PDO, thanks mainly to sitting fourth league-wide in save percentage, making up for a shooting percentage that’s 21st.
Outside of the 7–2 comeback against Montreal a few games ago, we really haven’t seen any of the explosive offensive performances that have defined the Matthews era.
Lots of needs, not much room
Last week I penned a piece arguing the Leafs should prioritize a top-four defenceman over a third-line centre. I still stand by the arguments in that piece as I think the current blue line staffing is not good enough. Frankly, however, it all feels a lot like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
With limited deadline cap space, a dearth of draft picks, and a limited prospect pool, it’s hard to imagine the Leafs making any large waves at the deadline. It’s Groundhog Day in Toronto again.
Last year, Ilya Lyubushkin, Joel Edmundson, and Connor Dewar didn’t solve the Leafs’ problems. The year before that, Ryan O’Reilly, Jake McCabe, and Luke Schenn didn’t solve our problems. The year before that, Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell didn’t solve our problems. The year before that, Nick Foligno and David Rittich didn’t solve our problems. The year before that, and on and on and on.
Every single year, we identify the exact same issues. The defence isn’t good enough, our goaltending is shaky (less so this year, except for injuries), we don’t have enough secondary scoring. And every year, we put a band-aid on a bullet wound and say this time the bleeding will stop.
Time to look in the mirror
We’ve known all along what the problem is, we’ve known it ever since Kyle Dubas’ infamous “we can, and we will,” comment. The Toronto Maple Leafs are too top-heavy. The “Core Four” plan demonstrably does not work, and is further evidenced by the fact that the only remaining front office executive is Brendan Shanahan, who is almost certainly getting fired after the inevitable first or second-round exit.
Mitch Marner is having one of, if not the best season of his career. John Tavares and William Nylander are both point-per-game players. Since returning from injury on Jan. 4th, Auston Matthews has nine goals and 15 points in 12 games. Even with the Core Four giving their all, and playing like they deserve their contracts, it’s still not enough.
Can the Leafs still make a deep run in the playoffs? I don’t know, sure? Anything can happen—and increasingly this world feels like the improbable is becoming plausible—but I certainly wouldn’t bet any money on it.
Of course, if they win it all, feel free to remind me of this article (although please don’t pretend you didn’t agree with every word). Unfortunately for those who try, I’ll probably be too happy to care. Winning solves everything. Too bad this team seems allergic to it. Can they prove me wrong? It’s possible. Will they? They never have before.
