With the Mikko Rantanen, JT Miller, Morgan Frost, and Mikael Granlund trades triggering one after another in quick succession, it’s safe to say trade season has officially arrived.
With the Leafs desperately fighting and clawing to keep the No. 1 seed in an increasingly competitive Atlantic Division landscape, the fanbase grows increasingly angsty as Brad Treliving remains dormant in the middle of a flurry of moves.
The Leafs currently don’t have a ton of cap flexibility and a lot of the fringe pieces that could potentially be moved out are hampered with NTCs. Max Domi, David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok all have trade protection that makes moving them a tricky proposition.
Toronto’s issues seem pretty apparent, the team needs a legit third-line centre or at least some secondary offence in the bottom six, and another legitimate top four defenceman to pair with Morgan Rielly, who’s having the worst year of his career since the Leafs have turned the corner from perpetual bottom feeder to playoff contender.
However, with only four picks in the first three rounds of the next two draft classes, Toronto is also struggling with a lack of real draft capital to work with.
In a market where Granlund went for a first round pick, and names like Jake Evans are generating hype for a second round pick Toronto will need to get creative with their trade strategy.
A new strategy
Recent events have got me thinking… namely Flames GM Craig Conroy’s recent trade with Danny Briere and the Philadelphia Flyers.
Not so much with regards to Morgan Frost, whose trade value is still decently high and on pace for his third straight 40-point season. Instead, I’m more curious about Briere’s attitude towards Joel Farabee, who had a 50-point season just last year and was jettisoned for essentially a cap dump (Andrei Kuzmenko) and a reclamation project who was available on waivers in Jacob Pelletier.
What if Toronto and Brad Treliving were to do something similar? Make a buy-low move on a team that paid a young talent some decent money with two or more years of term, who is now struggling, not worth the contract, and being jettisoned all over the place in the line-up. The acquisition cost would likely be pretty low, and Toronto has the opportunity to make a bet on a young talent finding form with a change of scenery.
Matias Maccelli—Utah (Outlaws?) HC—LW
The case of Maccelli is super interesting. After putting up 63 and 57-point paces the prior two seasons, the 24-year-old winger has seemingly been left behind in Arizona when the team relocated to Utah. After consistently playing a top-six role the prior two seasons in Arizona, Maccelli’s seen his ice time take a huge dip this season.
Playing essentially on the third line all year, Maccelli’s 17 points in 49 games is on pace for a career-worst 28 this season.
It’s been so bad in fact that Maccelli was actually healthy scratched earlier this week before Logan Cooley’s injury pushed the winger back into the top-six.
With the 24-year-old having another year left at $3.45M, and the team seemingly losing faith that he can be a regular for them, it does lead some (me) to wonder, is there a trade to be had?
The cap machinations would be pretty difficult unless Toronto is able to find a third team to retain on Maccelli (the idea being that Arizona doesn’t want a ton on the books for this coming offseason).
Assuming that’s not possible, some combination of Connor Dewar, Connor Timmins, Pontus Holmberg, David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok would make the numbers work.
Given Maccelli’s value is similar to that of a Joel Farabee (probably higher given the lower AAV and term), I’d imagine this is where a player like Pontus Holmberg would come into play. He’s got more NHL games than Pelletier, and adding him to any of Dewar, Kampf, and Jarnkrok likely fit Arizona’s vision better in the bottom six. There could be picks involved as well, but for the purpose of this article I won’t be trying to mock exactly what pick would be included.
With Maccelli, the Leafs would get a winger that could potentially unlock the team’s middle-six offence. Maccelli–Domi–Robertson/Pacioretty is likely a line that could get caved in defensively and physically, but he and Domi could be absolutely magic in transition. At the very least it’s an intriguing idea.
It also gives Toronto a ton of flexibility, Maccelli’s had a ton of success playing with players that can finish, making him an ideal option to slot in next to Auston Matthews. Highly creative with a ton of skill and playmaking ability, despite being undersized he’s got a ton of potential as a pseudo-Marner. Having a top-nine that looks like this could be super intriguing:
Knies–Matthews–Maccelli
McMann–Tavares–Nylander
Robertson–Domi–Marner
Having three lines that could be dominant offensively isn’t out of the question with a trade like this. I have no doubt Maccelli is a player that could thrive in a situation where he can play with other gifted offensive players instead of Bjugstad and Crouse who have been his most frequent linemates this season.
Tommy Novak—Nashville Predators—C
Tommy Novak is another guy I think the Leafs could look to buy low on. Novak’s asking price last year pre-extension at the deadline was high, and Nashville didn’t see any offers worth biting on and ended up inking the 27-year-old to a $3.5M, three year extension.
It did make sense, after all Novak had put up 69 and 52-point paces over the last two seasons with Nashville. It’s no surprise that Nashville would view him highly and not part with him unless they got a really good offer.
However, with the signings of Steven Stamkos, and Jonathan Marchessault in addition to Ryan O’Reilly’s deal from last year, Novak’s been pushed to the side and his play has struggled to adapt.
Playing most of this season alongside Jankowski and Evangelista, Novak’s paltry 17 points in 41 games has him on pace for just 34 points this year. He averaged only 12 minutes a game of ice time for Nashville in December, after averaging over 14 minutes the last two seasons.
Novak’s played primarily on the wing this season for Nashville, but he spent the prior two years primarily at centre. He hasn’t been particularly dominant at the face-off dot (just 43.2% for his career), but he’s capable of playing the role and has the goal-scoring chops to complement the playmaking of a Max Domi.
The cap implications for Novak are similar to that of Maccelli ($3.48M vs. $3.5M), but Novak comes with an extra year of term which could minimize his value a bit if Nashville treats him as a bit of a cap dump.
Novak’s advantage over Maccelli is his ability to play centre, which would give Toronto even more flexibility to spread out the lines. I generally feel Max Domi is best at centre if he’s not playing alongside Auston Matthews, but bringing in a player like Novak for relatively cheap, gives Toronto the luxury to try that Matthews and Domi experiment again.
Knies–Matthews–Domi
McMann–Tavares–Nylander
Robertson–Novak–Marner
This is another well-balanced top-nine that could push other teams into conflict when trying to line match. There’s scoring and an elite playdriver on every line, and Novak’s career shooting percentage of 14.9% would put him fourth on the Leafs this year. He’s currently shooting 12.5% which would still place him at seventh, just below Mitch Marner, providing the Leafs that potential source of secondary scoring.
Jacob Moverare—LA Kings—LD
For Moverare it’s not so much that he’s a buy-low candidate, but more so that I just think he’s a guy who won’t cost much to acquire, is younger and cheaper than a Benoit or Timmins and I think is significantly better than both.
Moverare’s only played 11:51 minutes a game this season for the Kings, but the pair of him and Spence this season has been exceptional. In 268.9 minutes this year, the pair has an xGF% of 64.5%.
With Drew Doughty’s return, Brandt Clarke has been demoted to a healthy scratch while Moverare’s maintained a bottom pair role. However, it feels like the Kings can only keep their blue-chip defensive prospect in Clarke scratched for so long. With LA carrying nine (nine!) defencemen this season, something has to give.
I imagine a mid-round pick could likely get it done, but I do feel that Moverare could allow Toronto to move on from a Connor Timmins, save $300K in cap space, and also provide the team with a young cheap option that could play with Rielly in sheltered minutes.
He’s 6’3”, plays hard defensively, and keeps it simple. There could be some growing pains trying to transition him to the right, he played there sparingly last year for the Kings with not-so-great results, but he fits the prototype of the kind of defenceman that would work with Rielly.
The way I see a trade for him would be: imagine the Edmundson/Lyubushkin trades of last year, except he’s younger, cheaper, has term and is better. It’s not the sexiest name on the list, and LA may not even want to trade him, but I think if they were to move him, he wouldn’t cost a ton and he’s someone who could really work with Rielly.
Get to work, Brad
There you have it! Three buy-low or under-the-radar players that the Leafs could make a run for this year to bolster their team despite having a shortage of top-end trade pieces. Let me know what you think or if there are any other buy-low options that I’ve missed!
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Player cards from https://x.com/JFreshHockey
