While the Toronto Maple Leafs have consistently remained a top team in the Eastern Conference in the Auston Matthews era, they have not finished first in the conference, or even the Atlantic Division, once (unless you count the weird Canadian Division during the 2021 season).
Considering the talent they, have this would be rather disappointing. But once you consider the teams that consistently finish on top the Atlantic, it makes more sense.
It’s no surprise that the last five Stanley Cup Finals have had one of the two Florida teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, both of which are Atlantic teams. Then, there is the consistently steady Boston Bruins who have been a contender in the East for well over a decade and just will not fall off, not to mention they have had the Leafs in a chokehold with four disappointing seven game series.
But things might be looking a little bit different this year.
State of the Atlantic Division
The Eastern Conference as a whole looks unrecognizable this year. While some contenders have fallen, other teams have stepped up in a surprising way. For teams like the Lightning and Bruins, their playoff future looks uncertain while Ottawa and Detroit are looking like serious threats in what has been a crazy wild card race so far with multiple teams within striking distance of a spot.
While the Maple Leafs have held the top of the Atlantic Division relatively comfortably the Panthers look like the only team that could snatch that spot from them. The Maple Leafs have a chance to do something incredible and take the top spot in the division this season but it will not be easy.
What they need to take the division
Scoring depth
With the trade deadline just over a month away the Leafs are looking for a third line centre. And there is a real concern that they might not address their biggest need, which is scoring.
While they look far better defensively the scoring has not been there, especially recently. What they do not need is another gritty third-line centre who is a rough and tough type of guy. This will require the Leafs to look a bit further and maybe pull some strings, but if there’s a player who is a real game-changer this is the time to go all in to push as far as they can go.
Stable Goaltending
The beginning of the season could not have been better in terms of goaltending for the Leafs. Woll has been as good as fans were hoping for, and Stolarz came in and won everyone over becoming one of the best goaltenders in the league before being injured. In order for the Leafs to take the division they need their best goalies to remain healthy and keep up their performances from earlier this season. Solid and consistent goaltending can keep the Leafs in every game, especially with that defensive corps up front.
Confident Defence
Although the Leafs have been better defensively in recent seasons, they will need to continue to build their defensive game. This means ensuring that the top guys in their defensive corps, led by Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, alongside the depth, minimize mistakes in their own zone and clear the puck efficiently. Most importantly they need to step up on the other end and contribute offensively.
Improving Special Teams
Toronto’s power play has been disappointing at best and frustrating at worst, which is surprising given the talent they have upfront. With elite talents like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, the power play can be a game-changer and is needed in order to be a successful team in the playoffs.
A strong power play can change the mood around a team and can be the difference between finishing first and second in a tight division, especially in a high-scoring division like the Atlantic.
Staying Healthy
Injuries have plagued the Leafs in recent seasons, particularly during the most important stretches, seeing Auston Matthews and John Tavares go down. That trend seems to continue.
Keeping their top players healthy will be essential for the Leafs to stay consistent down the most important stretch of the season. Also, young players like Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann, and others will need to take a big step in their development to provide a boost both in terms of the depth up and down the lineup.
A passionate crowd
This one might be the hardest one to fix considering the lower bowl of a Leafs game at home is less of a hockey game and more of a meeting in the financial district. Astronomical ticket prices have kept genuinely passionate working fans and families out of the building for so long. Even captain Auston Matthews spoke out in the media about the lack of passion recently. Toronto’s crowd should be intimidating to opposing teams and should be used to the team’s advantage, especially against rivals in divisional games.
It’s within reach
This year’s Leafs team isn’t much better—or even better at all—than years past. The difference is the division.
But we’ve seen what happens when Toronto finishes second or third. With a weaker Eastern Conference, the Leafs path to a Conference Final has never been this easy. All they need to do is keep winning games.
If they can, this is the best chance the Leafs have of making a Cup Final since their first playoff birth of the Matthews era.
