For basically the whole Auston Matthews era, the Toronto Maple Leafs have spent their highest-quality assets on rentals. Nick Foligno, Ryan O’Reilly, and the myriad of defencemen Toronto has added recently have cost them a lot, and they have nothing to show for it.
This was mostly Kyle Dubas—who seemed to love old men on expiring contracts—but last year was much of the same, just without a major piece added.
In a tight Atlantic Divison, with their best chance of claiming the top spot in years, it’s time for the Leafs to make a big splash. But not a rental. Or an old man.
According to Kevin Weekes, Toronto has shown interest in Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens. About to turn 24, Cozens is (relatively) struggling on a horrid Sabres team, playing his worst hockey in three seasons.
But he could be a huge contributor in the right situation. Let’s take a look at why:
What Cozens is capable of
Two seasons ago, Cozens was seen as one of the top up-and-coming centres in the NHL. In his second full season, the guy scored 31 times with 68 points.
For a Buffalo team that was on the rise—or so they thought—he was seen as the key forward on the roster. So, they locked him up for seven years at $7.1M. At the time, the deal seemed like a steal. And it easily could be one if he’s moved to the right team. About to turn 24, Cozens isn’t even in his prime yet.
At 6’3”, Cozens is an elite skater for his size. He’s shown he can be a top transition player in the game, controlling entries with blazing speed and using his heavy shot to beat goalies off the rush. Players with his combination of size and speed do not grow on trees. It’s the rest of his game that needs work.
His defensive reputation isn’t the best, but it’s safe to assume playing in Buffalo is at least part of this. The tools are all there: high motor, big body, strong stick, good hockey IQ. But he hasn’t put it all together with the Sabres. His eagerness to get out in transition causes him to turn pucks over quite a bit, and he just seems uninterested a lot of the time. But again, it’s hard not to blame this on Buffalo.
There are weaknesses to his game, for sure, but he’s a good enough forechecker and has the brain to be a very capable 200-foot player. Under a better system, and with actual motivation to win, there’s no doubt Cozens could get back to putting up 30 goals while playing a reliable centre.
Especially with the cap going up, his $7.1M AAV through his prime is a very worthy gamble. He’s shown he can be great. Getting out of Buffalo will help.
Making the money work
The usual hurdle with any Leafs deal is the cap. When you pay four guys over $40M, it’s always hard to work in hefty contracts.
But the Leafs are in their best position to add salary since the Core Four signed their deals.
Cozens makes $7.1M for the next five seasons, but with the cap going up so drastically, this will only be about 6.2% of the upper floor in three years. The only issue is fitting him in this season, but the Leafs surprisingly have money to shed.
First of all, Max Domi can get the boot. His $3.75M is simply burning cash at this point, and even if it takes a pick to get rid of him, that is easily the first step in adding a guy like Cozens.
After Domi, there’s only $3.35M to move. Throw in David Kampf’s $2.4M cap hit (my goodness, those are bad contracts) and Ryan Reaves’ $1.35M and boom. It’s actually a lot easier than you’d think.
There should be no reason Brad Treliving is married to Domi or Kampf, and they combine to make over $6M. Both can easily be replaced by guys currently in the press box, on IR, or on the Marlies.
Not to mention John Tavares and Mitch Marner both becoming UFAs at the end of the season. If even one of them walks, the Leafs will have a ton of room for Cozens. The money can make sense if Treliving wants it to.
Sick of the rentals
I don’t know if it’s just me, but I want the Leafs to add to their core, not the fringes. And this means someone actually good, and someone who has term on their contract.
Rentals have not worked, will not work, and waste high-end assets over and over. Think of how many picks the Leafs have punted for guys who played, what, 30 games in Toronto?
What it would take
Sometimes, they’re fine. Adding a depth defenceman to play on the third pair? Sure! Making the fourth line a bit better? Perfect! But when it’s time for a big swing, I want someone who I know will be a Leaf for a long time. No more Nick Folignos, please.
This is where it gets fun.
Multiple teams are in on Cozens, which means a bit of a bidding war may start. But Toronto actually has quite a few chips they could use, and they’d be worth it for a guy with five years left on his deal.
As we said before, Domi and Kampf would need to go. Whether they go to Buffalo or somewhere else with a mid-round pick attached doesn’t matter, but it’s worth nothing Buffalo probably doesn’t have room for either of them.
To start the Cozens package, the Leafs would have to include one of Minten or Cowan, whichever Buffalo prefers. Cowan’s stock has dropped while Minten’s has risen over the last few months, and neither are A+ prospects, but they’re the starting point.
In all honesty, I’d ship them both out if I needed to.
Next is the Leafs’ 2026 first-round pick. Buffalo is perpetually rebuilding, so handing them another first-rounder is definitely part of any Cozens trade. And if they ask for Toronto’s second-round pick this year, too? Do it.
And Toronto has a litter of secondary prospects, whether Buffalo wants Topi Niemela, Sam McCue, Ben Danford, or anyone else.
Yes, it would cost a lot. And yes, it’s a risk with Cozens recent play and cap hit. But the time is now to make a massive move. And Cozens is that move.
Will, you are talking like Cozens is the key to the promised land for the Leafs. While I agree Cozens has the tools to be really good and has done it once before, but you also mention that sometime he slacks and sometimes he jumps the gun and he is not great on defence, that takes him out of the realm of a present working piece for Buffalo, plus an B+ prospect, plus a First round pick. That is a big swing for good tools, big contract and some warts.