Many Toronto Maple Leafs fans have concerns about icing a competitive team year after year, and for good reason. More than half of the salary cap is dedicated to four forwards, which creates holes in the lineup that cannot adequately be filled.
Matthew Knies is having a career year this year and has taken the next step in his development. However, his entry-level contract expires at the end of this season. With contract extension talks between Knies’ camp and Maple Leafs’ management gone cold, the uneasiness around his next contract remains.
Let’s take a look at what Knies brings to the Maple Leafs, what his comparables are, and what he is worth.
What Knies can do
Knies brings a package to the Maple Leafs that not many players on the roster bring: size, physicality, and scoring. Knies has made serious developmental strides between last season and this season.
Last season Knies was noticeably pushed around more. This is an area that Knies improved in the offseason, notably adding 10 lbs to an already big frame of 6’3″, 217 lbs. In addition, either head coach Craig Berube convinced Knies, or he himself has realized that he’s bigger than most players.
Last season in 80 games, Knies finished the year with 169 hits and 30 blocks. So far in 51 games this season, Knies has 116 hits and 24 blocks. Knies has been punishing opposing players all season.
But it wasn’t just the physicality and dawg mentality that Knies has improved since last season, it is his scoring. Last season Knies finished with 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points. So far this year, in 51 games, he has 21 goals and 15 assists for 36 points, already a career year. So what has changed?
The answer is Knies is generating more offence. Knies has 89 shots, 118 scoring chances for, and 81 high-danger chances for already on the year, compared to 115, 126, and 83 respectively last year. His team-leading 23.6% shooting percentage is not sustainable and will regress as the season continues. But where the big differences lie are when looking at Knies–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner as a unit.
Last season without Knies, the top line’s shots for increased from 221 to 516, goals for increased from 26 to 76, scoring chances for increased from 236 to 563, and high-danger scoring chances for increased from 106 to 251. This season has had the opposite effect.
Looking at the same metrics for this season, without Knies, the top line’s shots for decreases from 242 to 158, goals for decreases from 33 to 20, scoring chances for decreases from 265 to 178, and high-danger scoring chances decreases from 117 to 75. The argument last season was that Knies was a liability on the top line. The argument this season is that Knies helps make the top line click.
Who is Knies comparable to?
This is where it becomes a bit challenging. In terms of play, Knies is comparable to a young, but slower version of New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider. However, the circumstances are not that comparable.
Like Knies, Kreider played two NHL regular seasons during his ELC. His post-ELC was a short-term, two-year, $2.475M AAV deal. Kreider would score back-to-back 21-goal seasons, tallying 46 points in the first season and 43 points in the second season. This production earned him a four-year $4.625M AAV contract.
However, unlike Kreider, who had one 37-point season in his ELC, Knies has one 35-point season and is projected to finish with 54 points this season. In addition, Kreider signed his post-ELC in 2014 when the salary cap was much lower. The salary cap is expected to increase to $113.5M by the 2027–28 season.
A more recent comparable is perhaps Kreider’s teammate Alexis Lafrenière. The former first-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft has not lived up to his draft pedigree expectations. While he has played with top-line players previously, he currently plays on the second line with Vincent Trocheck and Will Cuylle. Lafrenière also sees second unit power play minutes, whereas Knies sees first unit power play minutes.
He played all three seasons of his ELC, scoring 21 points, 31 points, and 39 points in his final year. This production earned him a two-year $2.325M AAV contract, which expires at the end of this season.
However, Knies is on pace this season to shatter Lafrenière’s best ELC season by a wide margin. Furthermore, Knies has played the majority of his career facing opposing teams’ best lines and penalty killers, making a Lafrenière post-ELC unlikely.
Very Knies, but how much is he worth?
I think there is some nuance to this question. There is a question of what he’s worth on the open market, and what he’s worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs. On the open market, he is a 22-year-old player with unrealized potential and is having a breakout year. However, he is playing with Marner and Matthews on the first line, and receives first unit power play time. How would he perform on the second line with limited power play time?
Of course, this argument goes both ways. His camp will argue that he is playing against the best players and penalty killers every night. This leads to his worth to the Maple Leafs, and where Knies holds significant bargaining power because there is no one on the team who has his skillset.
Other than Knies, the Maple Leafs do not have a true power forward. Compared to existing Maple Leafs, he is starting to develop Tavares’ net-front presence, has some of Max Domi’s stick-handling and passing abilities in tight, and has some of Jake McCabe’s punishing body-checking. However, no one combines all three like Knies. The Maple Leafs know this, and Knies know this.
The hope for the fanbase and organization is that Knies signs a long-term, team-friendly deal. However, with the Maple Leafs’ stars preferring to take shorter-term big-dollar contracts to maximize career earnings with inflation and a rising salary cap, Knies will probably follow their lead.
With that, probably something between the $4.5M-$6.5M AAV range for 4–6 years is fair for both sides. The Maple Leafs get cost certainty for 4–6 years and the last few years of the contract will likely be a bargain assuming Knies continues his development trajectory and the salary cap continues to increase. Knies gets security in term and is slightly overpaid during the first couple of years of the contract.
The Maple Leafs will need to figure out how to fit Knies’ new contract in with Mitch Marner and John Tavares also needing new contracts, and with the salary increases to Joseph Woll and Jake McCabe. I will leave that up to Brandon Pridham to work out.
Leave a comment below and let us know what you think Knies’ next contract will look like!
should have signed him in the summer when they had the chance
I think that he will get more than 4.5 million by 6 years-would suggest will look more like 5 to 5.5 million by 5 years. As to suggesting they missed the boat last summer, not so sure I agree although I take the point. Sometimes young players take that next step and sometimes they flame out. Besides, clearly Treliving is a cautious manager and not overly willing to take risks.
It’s really hard to predict these things. Toronto has the added complexity with how they structured the cap, which was their own design. They can’t afford to overpay Knies and him not turn out as expected. Unfortunately every dollar counts with this limited compete window we have.
I’m in the camp of it’s worth the “gamble” for Knies based on what we’ve seen and what he has done so far this year. It will be interesting to see how Treliving handles this.