Today is one of the most important days in recent Hockey Canada history. A regulation win over Finland, and they are through to the finals. A loss, and an embarrassing result for a team originally favoured to win the tournament.
Front and centre is Mitch Marner, the Toronto Maple Leafs forward playing maybe the best season of his NHL career. With 71 points in 54 games, Marner is on pace to hit the 100-point mark for the first time, and lead the team in points.
You’d think the talk around Marner would be all about extending him, but as we know, this market and player have a very weird relationship. Constant failure, and some really horrible quotes from Marner, have fans divided about his worth, impact, loyalty, and everything in between.
The pending UFA is due a contract, probably starting in the $12.5M range with a chance to go significantly higher. If the Leafs fail for the ninth year in a row, maybe paying him and Matthews a combined $25M is a bad idea.
So, if Toronto does decide to pivot, what could they realistically do? Let’s dig in.
The easy answer
The simplest, straightforward answer would be to take Marner’s money, and offer it to Mikko Rantanen. Rumours around a Rantanen extension in Carolina have died, and it seems the Finnish superstar may be hitting the open market.
He and Marner are extremely interesting, as they are both from the 2015 NHL Draft class, both have superstar status, and are both hitting the open market at the same time.
Their games are very different, as Marner likes to distribute more than anything, and needs control of the puck to be effective. Rantanen likes to pick his spots, find open ice, and score. Playing with Nathan Mackinnon has inflated his assist totals, but he is coming off seasons with goal totals of 55 and 42.
The most jarring difference, however, is their playoff performances. Let’s just say Marner has not played his best hockey in the postseason, while Rantanen shines.
In 81 career playoff games with the Colorado Avalanche, Rantanen has 34 goals and 67 assists. That’s 101 points in 81 games. It would be nice if the Leafs had a postseason performer like that, huh?
Marner is under a point per game in his 57 playoff appearances, with just 11 goals. Something about his game doesn’t translate, or at least it hasn’t yet.
A simple swap of the two would probably (?) help the Leafs, but obviously letting Marner walk does not mean you are guaranteed a Rantanen signing. Anyone hitting unrestricted free agency is going to get an inflated contract, and either of these guys could land a $14M offer from a team with a ton of cap room.
Beef up the blueline
Even with new additions of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the Leafs back end is suspect. No depth means two of Conor Timmins, Philippe Myers, and Simon Benoit have to play every night. That is not good!
The top-four are solid, but not championship-level. Taking Marner’s $10.9M and throwing a bag at Aaron Ekblad, plus another solid top-four defenceman would make Toronto’s defence corps one of the best in the league.
Marner’s money alone won’t be enough, but ridding the team of Max Domi and David Kampf’s contracts would be.
How good would Ekblad and Neil Pionk look? It would completely change the direction and identity of the team, and honestly would fit Craig Berube’s style much easier.
Imagine a lineup of:
Rielly – Ekblad
McCabe – Tanev
OEL – Pionk
It could be overkill to be real, having Pionk on the third pair, but it looks real nice on paper. Brad Treliving would have to get creative with the forward group, but those defencemen in front of the Stolarz/Woll tandem would be as formidable as they come.
What about side by side with a friend?
Brad Marchand will also be a free agent if not signed by the Boston Bruins.
I know, I know, watching Marchand in the blue and white might be too much for some, but would it not be fun?
He’s not going to get a long deal, or even much of a raise at this point, so adding Marchand as the marquee forward allows Toronto to add another top-four defenceman and help out the bottom-six.
Maybe not Marchand himself, but this type of plan works best. Add a ~$7–8M forward, a $5M defenceman, and work around the edges.
If it were to be Marchand, we’d know what to expect. The rat is one of the most annoying players to play against, but one of the best to cheer for. His impact in the postseason could arguably be more than Marner’s by himself (if he can still play at his age) and he would allow more flexibility around the lineup.
It might feel disgusting, and it might hurt to watch. But the Leafs could do a lot worse.
Lots of options
This free agent class is pretty solid, especially for defencemen. Losing Marner is not what I or the Leafs want, but it isn’t the end of the world if they do. In some scenarios, it could improve the team.
Of course, losing Marner does not guarantee you anything. Players will be overpaid, given homerun offers that Toronto simply could not match. This is the way of free agency.
But Toronto has options, and shouldn’t be desperate in negotiations. Especially until we see the playoffs, nothing should be set in stone. Who knows what will happen, but I do know the fanbase will be divided either way.
