As we approach the NHL Trade Deadline, it appears that much of the conversation in Leafs Nation more often than not has begun to revolve around Leafs prospect Fraser Minten.
In my article on Scott Laughton’s fit for the Leafs, I’ve already outlined that I think Minten is more valuable to the Leafs, and that using him in any Scott Laughton trade would be shortsighted. However, I do feel compelled to support my stance beyond just a gut feeling on who I think Fraser Minten could be.
First, let’s contextualize how impressive Fraser Minten’s pro career has been so far with the Leafs, because I’m beginning to think that Leafs fans have become desensitized to what the timeline of an average rookie is.
Minten’s impressive NHL start
With some help from QuantHockey.com, I’ve decided to check out in the last six draft classes (so since the 2019 draft) how many non-lottery draft pick forwards have played at least 15 games in the NHL before the season they turn 21.
The answer?
25.
There are a few potential stars on this list, Wyatt Johnston of the Dallas Stars features at the very top of it, ahead of the entire field. He put up 106 points in two full seasons with Dallas before he turned 21 and is already considered one of the biggest draft steals from the 2021 draft. Cole Caufield had an impressive 48-point campaign in his age-20 season and looks like he’s solidified himself as a legit top-line player.
Other formerly highly touted first-round prospects also find themselves on this list. Dawson Mercer, Alex Newhook, and Philip Tomasino are the three that jump out to me.
In fact, of these 25 players, only 10 of them were drafted past the first round.
Arthur Kaliyev, JJ Peterka, Matthew Poitras, Alexei Protas, Luke Evangelista, Logan Stankoven and Joshua Roy are the players of the 10 who have played more NHL games than Fraser Minten.
For reference, JJ Peterka and Alexei Protas are both top-six options for Buffalo and Washington respectively, Matthew Poitras is a key contributor to Boston’s middle-six, Logan Stankoven is wildly considered one of the best prospects in hockey, and Luke Evangelista has been a career 39-point pace player at only 22.
Am I saying Fraser Minten is on par with these players and projects similarly? No, every prospect is different and even on this list, names like Kaliyev, Newhook and Tomasino aren’t exactly glowing success stories.
The more important note that I want you to take away from this is this: of these 25 non-lottery names, only five have been traded. Of those five players…only two were traded before their age-23 season.
Aatu Raty was one of two main pieces Vancouver got in return for Bo Horvat.
Peyton Krebs was the only prospect that Buffalo got back in the Jack Eichel trade.
All of this essentially is to say that when NHL teams get a young player that they view highly and play as many NHL games as early on in their career as they do, they don’t trade them away for Scott Laughton and Rasmus Ristolainen.
There are two real avenues that these kinds of players go down:
- The team trades them as part of a bigger package for a legitimate top-of-the-lineup player (Raty and Krebs as I’ve previously mentioned)
OR
- The team sticks by the players and lets them develop. Under this scenario, you either get:
- A young productive player who plays in your middle-six (think Peterka, Protas, McMichael, Poitras, Neighbours, Greig, Stankoven, Kulich as of now)
- They fizzle out, and after three or four years the team loses them on waivers or moves on from them in a trade to make room for younger prospects with more runway (Tomasino, Newhook, and Kaliyev)
AHL companions
Some may argue that Minten’s call-ups have more to do with the Leafs’ abundance of injuries over the last two years and that it speaks more to the Leafs’ lack of organizational depth than the player himself.
With that in mind, I’ve decided to look at the PPG pace in the AHL this season for players the same age as Minten (so born in 2004)
The list of names with a higher PPG than Minten is 22 players long. Of these 22 only 10 have played NHL games this year (Nazar, Kaspar, Ohgren, Poitras, Lekkerimaki, Miroschnichenko, Savoie, Beck, Geekie, and McGroarty). All of them except for Poitras and Beck were first round picks. It’s an elite company that Minten has found himself in even if you discount the NHL games factor.
Of the 22 age-20 forwards ahead of him in AHL PPG, only seven of them project to play centre at the next level (Marco Kasper, Matthew Poitras, Jiri Kulich, Owen Beck, Noah Ostlund, Nate Danielson and Conor Geekie). Accounting for the more valuable role Minten plays (centre as opposed to winger) and the fact that he is one of the most refined defensive U21 players in the entire AHL, I do not doubt that Minten is still a very valuable prospect.
If we look into league history at currently active former second round pick centres who played over 15 games before their age-21 season… the list is short. Very short.
Ryan O’Reilly, Sebastian Aho, Christian Dvorak, Alexandre Texier, David Gustafsson, Colton Sissons, Matthew Poitras and Fraser Minten… that’s it. All of them as of this season have carved out an everyday NHL role except Minten. By all accounts, he’s going to be an NHL regular one day and the odds of him becoming a legit middle-six piece are higher than him being some fourth-line fringe NHLer.
All this to say, despite the perceived low ceiling that much of this fanbase seems to have for Minten, history speaks for itself. These kinds of prospects, with the pro experience that they have at such a young age, are extremely valuable to NHL teams.
Minten’s projection and skillset
You’ve already seen me talk about Minten’s game on X (@ryanmascouting) and my previous articles. At the bare bones, he still plays the same way and it’s frankly effective.
Minten’s game is all about positioning. Almost similar to John Tavares, Minten is well aware of his weaknesses. Despite vastly improving his skating in the past year, Minten’s footspeed remains one of the weaker aspects of his overall package.
With this in mind, there’s rarely wasted movement. Everywhere Minten goes on the ice is with a purpose, there are no extra unnecessary movements. His head is always on a swivel so he can anticipate where the puck will likely be and so he can make sure he’s in the best position to receive it.
We saw that on the few goals he scored with the Leafs this year, largely a product of him being in the right place at the right time. While that is usually a phrase used to represent luck, in hockey, you make your luck and Minten does it with his on-ice intelligence.
He’s growing into his body, and with this growing strength, he’s learning to leverage it more effectively in puck battles and on the forecheck. He’s got a good reach that he uses to poke pucks away and disrupt breakouts on the forecheck, but he’s engaging more physically; pinning players to the boards and moving them off the puck.
He’s also definitely got an NHL-level shot, he’s gotten it off more consistently this year than last season and while the accuracy behind it can still be hit or miss off one-timers, I think between the power and improved release, it will make him a viable option on the half wall for a power play unit.
We’ve already mentioned how strong he is defensively. He’s always in the right position, consistently circles back to help the defencemen on breakouts, lifts sticks in the slot to take away tips and second-chance opportunities, and is strong along the wall when trying to get the puck out.
I think he could still have better contact balance, and his on-the-puck skills remain the key factor limiting his offensive upside. Minten favours dump-ins and short-area passes; he lacks confidence in his ability to take defenders on in isolation. He prefers to be a passenger in transition and build-up, and hunts most of his offence off the puck.
I think that makes him a suitable fit alongside more puck-dominant wingers (which luckily the Leafs have a plethora of), and two factors will determine his overall ceiling as an NHL player.
- Net front instincts and reaction time
- Contact balance
The net front instincts and reaction time will be crucial for Minten. We’ve seen John Tavares age like fine wine despite declining speed and not having the most dynamic skillset either. If Minten can find a home in the trapezoid: whether it’s tipping pucks, banging in rebounds, or just finishing consistently on gorgeous feeds from the Leafs’ elite wingers, there’s a world where Minten’s NHL role isn’t a third liner but a legitimate complimentary top-six player.
With that comes the contact balance issue, Minten will need to be a contributor offensively through his in-zone offence. His foot speed and lack of dynamic skill mean most of his chances to provide offence will be through the cycle game rather than off the rush, and to be effective in that role along the wall and in the net front, he needs to learn how to not just dole out punishment but take it too.
A future NHLer
All in all, Fraser Minten is a player I’m personally much higher on than consensus. I believe in his existing skillset and I believe that if a player like Zach Hyman can develop an elite net-front presence from sheer hard work, practice and determination, then there’s a world where #39 can too.
I’m not opposed to Toronto trading the former second round pick, but my logic stays consistent to what it’s always been. Unless it’s a legitimate top-six forward in their prime that comes with term (whether that’s on the existing contract or an extension), the Leafs should actively look to move less NHL-ready pieces instead.
