As the trade deadline looms ever closer, more and more rumours will begin to swirl. Especially around a team as popular as the Toronto Maple Leafs, nearly every name on the market could be linked as a possibility. This will be reinforced as GM Brad Treliving is notoriously involved with working the phones and exchanging as much information as possible with teams around the league. Outside of goaltending, where the Leafs are fairly solid, hearing that the Leafs have made calls should not hold much weight.
One way of looking at the trade deadline is how the team can be improved. A centre seems most likely, though an upgrade to right defence would be nice. Wingers with size and quality left defencemen could improve the team as well. There are several players that the Leafs should be interested in, no doubt ranging in cost, viability, availability, and impact.
The other way to analyze the trade market is by examining the other side of the equation. Other teams must agree to the Leafs offers, and must be enticed accordingly. While the salary cap presents challenges and obstacles of its own, so too does the Leafs ability to offer value in quantity or quality. Let’s take a closer look at some of the assets that could be in play for the Leafs this deadline.
Not very many picks
As much as the consensus has been to upgrade the team at the deadline over the course of the Auston Matthews era, the Leafs are paying the price for their past aggressiveness. The Leafs have hollowed out their draft capital over this time, especially with the Ryan O’Reilly trade that delivered the team its only playoff series win of the salary cap era.
Without a 2025 first round pick, and with only one pick in the first three rounds of this year’s draft, the Leafs are without the gold standard capital for deadline trades. This is highly inconvenient, and forces the Leafs to get creative or aggressive if they wish to equal that value. Of course, some teams might be interested in the Leafs 2026 first round pick, though trading that away would see the Leafs in a similar position next season. The Leafs are expected to remain a playoff team next season, but trading a top pick a year out comes with a lot of risk.
Naturally, the draft is held after the playoffs, and often there are several trades during the draft itself. Heading into the playoffs without a draft pick in the first three rounds does not mean that the Leafs will not end up finding a way to acquire a pick later. With a new director of amateur scouting, there will be an effort to start building out the prospect pool in a new image, though the opportunities will be modest.
In all, there is not a lot here for the Leafs to work with. It would not be too surprising to see their 2025 second round pick, or their first or third round picks in 2026 on the move. Some later picks might be involved, but their ability to entice teams is limited. The Leafs will be at a disadvantage in acquiring top-tier players because of their limited draft capital.
What about the prospects?
The Leafs do have a bit more to work with here, though the decision will be at least as difficult. Unlike with a draft pick, the Leafs have already invested in their prospects and at some point were inspired by their potential. Even more, trading a prospect is about finding a team that shares or exceeds that level of faith. A late first round pick in an upcoming draft has a far more objective value than a drafted prospect, making it a far more elegant trade asset.
The Leafs do have some high end prospects that would interest most teams. Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten should command as much respect as a 2025 first round pick, a testament to the Leafs drafting and development. Trading one of these two players would be significant, as either or both could make the jump into full-time NHL roles as soon as next season. Outside of a double-retained Mikko Rantanen there are likely no pure rentals available who would be worth it. Perhaps for a player with a longer-term fit including one of these forward prospects would start to make sense.
To an extent, Ben Danford might be in this category as well, though a disappointing offensive performance this season does not help his value. Nikita Grebenkin would certainly be looked upon as a value. Both Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov might fit into this tier as well, especially for teams looking to bolster their goaltending. Though there is good reason for the Leafs to feel excited about these prospects, their value around the league will be far less consistent. These are circumstantial assets at valuable positions, and trading them away could haunt the Leafs if they grow into success elsewhere.
The Leafs do have other notable prospects, though their value as trade assets is less significant. Perhaps mid-level prospects like Roni Hirvonen, Topi Niemela, or Miroslav Holinka are valued by certain teams around the league. Surely there will be some teams with a vague level of interest, but the trade is completely dependent on personal taste. Seeing as Kyle Dubas and Wes Clark are with the Pittsburgh Penguins there might be an appetite for some of their former selections, for example.
Roster players could be moved
For a contending team like the Leafs, the least likely assets to be included in a deadline deal are players that are already regulars in the lineup. After all, trading away players of this calibre weakens the team, even if it is in service of bringing in other high-quality players. Still, the reality of the hard salary cap means that players might have to be included in trades as salary cap counterweights.
While these players are unlikely to be dealt they are often heavily involved in mock trades by fans. A big piece of this is cap-related, as it is a simple way for fans to fit high-priced trade targets into their lineups. NHL teams, and especially the Leafs, are usually more convoluted in their methods, pursuing as many potential loopholes in the CBA as possible, even previously unseen methods. Contending teams do have to shed salary, though such moves are more likely to happen in the summer, prioritizing reinforcements over reshaping as the playoff push begins.
Robertson
There are several options that might make sense in this case. Firstly, Nicholas Robertson has picked up his fair share of doubters among Leaf Nation. There is a chance that some teams value his skill set, just as he is worthy of some fans within Leaf Nation as well. His value ebbs and flows every time Robertson is able to string together some production.
Clearly his frame is not ideal for the current GM and coach, but there is a willingness to battle that can win him favour if he can apply himself more frequently. There are not many players available that present as much upside as Robertson at such a low cap cost. Still coming into his own, Robertson might have more value to the Leafs than he does on the trade market for the time being.
Domi
Max Domi is finding himself in this area more often, underproducing on the season. Like Robertson, Domi’s public confidence rating is tied to offensive production. With three years on his deal after this, the Leafs might have some buyer’s remorse. Domi has been an inelegant fit in the top-nine, outside the top-six and not trusted in a defensive role.
Trading Domi would open up cap space, but it would also deplete the Leafs of proven secondary scoring. He has elevated his game in crucial moments in the past, meaning the best of the season might still be to come. His services might hold some value, especially for teams opting to retool rather than completely rebuild.
Kampf
Another player whose offensive totals are outweighed by cap cost, David Kampf is still a reliable player. He has fallen short of the third-line centre role in Toronto, but still plays an important role on the penalty kill. Again, a retooling team might value a stabilizing force in the middle, just as Craig Berube and the Leafs do.
There is certainly an argument to be made that the Leafs have more important players, but his contributions cannot be overlooked. The Leafs penalty kill will have to be excellent if they are looking to make a run in the playoffs. An offseason move is more likely, as the Leafs would likely have to have a succession plan in place to fill in behind.
Rielly
The spiciest suggestion is trading Morgan Rielly. As the highest-paid defenceman on the team, Rielly is under a certain level of scrutiny. As such, freeing up the cap space provides the most flexibility for bold mock trades. His game is far from perfect, but his skills are an unsinkable asset to the Leafs blueline. His best hockey might be behind him, but Rielly still has some good years left in him.
The Leafs blueline is built for the here and now. The top-four have a nice blend of talents, but it is difficult to envision any occupying such a role five years from now. As a whole the group might be good enough, but it is just barely and right now. There is certainly merit to arguments that $7M could be better spent, or that the team should significantly upgrade their blueline.
The time may come when the Leafs move off of Rielly, but it is fairly unlikely that the team can improve its playoff blueline by trading him now. Rielly has also elevated his game in the playoffs before. It has not been his finest season, but chances are Rielly will be better the rest of the way. Historically speaking, a high-end partner has been elusive for Rielly. Better supporting him, and the team as a whole, is a much simpler solution than creating another huge hole on the blueline by trading him. Doing so in season, while the Leafs have a chance to win the Atlantic Division, is highly unlikely.
Bottom line
The Leafs do have some trade assets to work with, but the extremities of the organization are being stretched. There is enough capital to trade for a minor addiction or two, perhaps a tailored fit to the Leafs needs. The Leafs can be more aggressive, but it is easy to see why the team is rumoured to be interested in adding players with term on their contracts. Perhaps with some retention, trading away the 2026 first round pick becomes much more palatable.
