The Nashville Predators made a splash last offseason by signing Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault to long-term contracts. The hope was Nashville could re-tool on the fly. However, it appears the re-tool has failed. The Predators currently sit 14th in the Western Conference, well out of a playoff spot. It would take a miracle for the Predators to make the playoffs now. Even if they did, would they be capable of going on a deep run?
General Manager Barry Trotz said a few months ago that: “If we don’t get it going, then I’m going to start our rebuild plan.” It appears that the time has come. More recently, Trotz said if their best players do not want to be in Nashville long-term, he would make a move. This would likely apply to more than just the top players if the move made sense for the Predators.
Heading into the trade deadline, the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking for a third-line centre and another defenceman for a deep playoff run. Let’s take a look at some players from the Predators’ roster that could be a fit for the Maple Leafs and the likelihood of the acquisition.
Ryan O’Reilly
Maple Leafs fans remember Ryan O’Reilly quite well, who was acquired ahead of the 2022–23 trade deadline with Noel Acciari. Ryan O’Reilly scored four goals and seven assists for 11 points in 13 regular season games. In the playoffs, O’Reilly played on a third line with rookie Matthew Knies and Acciari, scoring three goals and six assists for nine points in 11 games.
Why it makes sense for Toronto
O’Reilly was a key part in why the Maple Leafs advanced to the second round for the first time since 2004. The third line of Knies-O’Reilly-Acciari was very good. O’Reilly is a centre who has already played the third-line centre role that the Maple Leafs need. Though his linemates would be different, he would probably play with Nicholas Robertson and Max Domi, assuming they both stay. This solves the problem of Domi playing centre—as he has shown he is a better winger—and Robertson could be the scoring threat.
What also works in the Maple Leafs’ favour is that O’Reilly is already familiar with the Maple Leafs. He’s played with the team and was coached by Craig Berube. Recall that O’Reilly won the Stanley Cup with Berube on the 2018–19 Blues. On top of that, O’Reilly won the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP.
Likelihood of acquisition: Low
Ultimately, O’Reilly did not re-sign with the Maple Leafs after the 2022–23 season. O’Reilly’s comments implied that one deciding factor was the media scrutiny that comes with playing for the Maple Leafs:
“You could tell everything’s amplified,” O’Reilly said. “I don’t do it often, (but) it was a good thing when I played there that I didn’t turn on the TV much or turn on the radio, because there are (so many outlets) talking about it. … Everything’s covering it, talking about it. Here, it gets a little time on the TV, but it’s not everything. It is more than just a game there.”
Realistically though, the reason was that the Nashville Predators offered a four-year, $4.5M AAV contract and could see O’Reilly taking a first-line centre role. The term was too much for the Maple Leafs at the time, and his role would have been a third-line centre.
Thomas Novak
Thomas Novak was selected 85th overall by the Nashville Predators in the 2015 NHL Draft. Novak finished his college career with the University of Minnesota. He played several years in the American Hockey League with the Milwaukee Admirals and one year with the Chicago Wolves.
Novak had some success at the AHL level. He scored 42 points in 60 games in 2019–20, then 32 points in 27 games in 2020–21. He posted 34 points in 42 games in the 2021–22—the year he made his NHL debut. In his first taste of the NHL with the Predators, he scored seven points in 27 games.
Why it makes sense for Toronto
Novak went on to have back-to-back 40+ point seasons with the Predators. He put up 43 points in 2022–23 and 45 points in 2023–24. This earned him a three-year $3.5M AAV contract that started this season.
Novak is a centre that has a combination of hockey intelligence, skill, and speed. This would fit well on the third line for the Maple Leafs, which would either have Domi, Robertson, or both. Both Domi and Robertson are fast skaters and have a lot of skill in their game.
Novak is currently on pace for his worst offensive output year, with an 82-game pace of 33 points. This may be a bad omen for the Maple Leafs, or it could work out to keep the price lower.
Likelihood of acquisition: Medium
Assuming Trotz wants to move Novak, there could be a deal that the Maple Leafs could meet. Novak is still young at 27 years old, and has two more years remaining on his deal. This would be better than paying for the annual rental that the Maple Leafs seem to do.
However, there is an element of risk for the Maple Leafs. As good as Novak is, he has only played six NHL playoff games in his career (all last season), and has zeros across the board. The Maple Leafs need a centre that can produce in the playoffs, as their contention window is closing.
If the Predators are entering a rebuild, they would likely want draft picks, or prospects, which the Maple Leafs can spare. The Maple Leafs have later-round draft picks in the next several drafts and have lesser prospects outside of Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten that could be used to acquire Novak. Given the Maple Leafs cap situation, the Predators would either retain $1.5M, or the Maple Leafs would throw in a roster player.
Luke Schenn
Maple Leafs fans remember Luke Schenn as the “truculence” poster child in the Brian Burke era (and Tyler Biggs). The Maple Leafs drafted Schenn fifth overall in the 2008 NHL Draft. Unfortunately, Schenn never lived up to his draft potential and was swapped one-for-one with Philadelphia for James van Riemsdyk, which worked out well for the Maple Leafs at the time.
Schenn has reinvented his game over his career to being a solid third-pairing defenceman who brings physicality and plays a defensive defenceman type role. He won back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019–20 and 2020–21 and had a bit of a breakout in Vancouver Canucks the two years after.
Why it makes sense for Toronto
The Maple Leafs reacquired Schenn for the playoff run in the 2022–23 playoff run. Schenn was solid in the 15 regular season games and in the 11 playoff games with the Maple Leafs, often being paired with Morgan Rielly. Like O’Reilly, Schenn is also familiar with the current Maple Leafs roster and would probably enjoy playing for Craig Berube.
The old adage of “you can never have too many defencemen” rings true in deep playoff runs. Schenn was offered a three-year $2.75M AAV from the Predators in 2023. The term and salary were too much for the Maple Leafs at the time, and if I am being honest, it was a bit too rich for what Schenn ultimately brings.
Likelihood of acquisition: High
The Maple Leafs tried to be proactive in the offseason, signing their annual NHL trade deadline depth defenceman in Jani Hakanpaa. However, given his injuries, it did not pan out. Looking at Schenn, the cost to acquire the 35-year-old would not be that huge, should GM Treliving feel it is needed. As I noted above, the Maple Leafs have enough picks to spend on a depth defenceman.
Fortunately, Schenn has an extra year after this season, so the Maple Leafs would not have to spend assets at the next trade deadline. The downside is that his cap hit is $2.75M. The Maple Leafs would have to send salary the other way, or Nashville retains. If Schenn was, say, around $1.5M, then it would be more appealing, but there are probably better options out there.
Honourable mention
One player that I did not mention was Nick Blankenburg on defence. He is currently playing on the top defence pairing for the Predators, and is in the first year of a cheap two-year $1.5M deal. The 26-year-old right-handed shot defenceman could be a welcomed addition, given his age, skillset and compete window. However, he does not fit Treliving’s mould of a big-hitting defender.
The Leafs’ approach to the trade deadline
Out of the three players, the player that makes the most sense is Novak, assuming Trotz wants to move him. While O’Reilly would be a better fit skill-wise, he is not likely to be moved. Schenn’s cap hit is likely a turn-off for the Maple Leafs, especially with cheaper options for a depth defenceman.
The trade deadline is only one week away. Let us know your thoughts below! Who should the Maple Leafs acquire for their playoff run?
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