Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs had an excellent trade deadline yesterday by adding Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. The Maple Leafs addressed their third-line centre hole and added a legitimate top-four defensive defenceman for this year and two years after.
However, before adding these pieces, the Maple Leafs were rumoured to be in on the Mikko Rantanen sweepstakes. Ultimately, Rantanen ended up in Dallas with an eight-year, $12M AAV extension. If it worked out for Toronto, the Maple Leafs would have had a scary top-six.
However, would the Maple Leafs be better off with Rantanen instead of Laughton and Carlo? Let’s take a look at this question in detail.
The possible trade
According to Nick Kypreos, the Maple Leafs offered Carolina Easton Cowan, Fraser Minten, and two first-round draft picks for Rantanen. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs were willing to spend anywhere from $105M to $110M on an eight-year deal. This would have worked out to an AAV of $13.125M to $13.75M. Whether Rantanen would have waived his no-movement clause is uncertain.
Allegedly, the Carolina Hurricanes did not want to run into the Maple Leafs and Rantanen in the playoffs. Ultimately, the Hurricanes decided to go with the Stars’ offer of Logan Stankoven and two first-round picks.
While this price tag seems steep, both the offer and the contract extension, Rantanen has been a dominant force in the NHL. He has scored nearly 300 goals and nearly 400 assists in 632 games. He also has two seasons with over 100 points. However, Rantanen has something that the current Maple Leafs superstars lack: playoff dominance. Rantanen has 34 goals and 67 assists for 101 points in just 81 playoff games. If even one of the Maple Leafs’ highly priced superstars had this kind of production, the Maple Leafs would have likely won more than one playoff round in the last eight years.
Had the Maple Leafs landed Rantanen, this season, the top-six would be some combination of:
Matthew Knies–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner
Wiliam Nylander–John Tavares–Mikko Rantanen
Obviously, you could swap the wingers depending on chemistry. But this is an absolute nightmare to play against in a seven-game playoff series. Almost looks like some kind of fantasy top-six. However, with every trade, there are usually pros and cons.
The opportunity cost
Had the Maple Leafs landed Rantanen, they would have been out of signing Laughton and Carlo. The Maple Leafs would still have a huge hole at the third-line centre position and on defence that teams would exploit in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs would be left with no top prospects or picks. Only one team can win the Stanley Cup each year, and if the Maple Leafs would fail, how would they load up for next year?
Third-line centre
Max Domi can play centre in a pinch, but he has historically performed better as a winger. The bottom-six, more so the third line, lacks a puck distributor with some sandpaper. Laughton fills this need this year and next year for a cheap cap hit of $1.5M. Obtaining Laughton causes a reconfiguration of the bottom-six.
Domi or Bobby McMann likely moves to the second line left wing, and Pontus Holmberg goes to the fourth line or is a healthy scratch. Although, a third line of Domi–Laughton–Nicholas Robertson would be interesting. Domi would act as the playmaker, Laughton as the grinder/puck retriever, and Robertson as the shooter. This mirrors the first line with Marner, Knies, and Matthews, respectively.
There’s also the recently returned Calle Jarnkrok, who played his second game of the season this past Wednesday. Once he has a few more games under his belt, does he move up to the third line? Or does he provide some offence to the fourth line? Either way, Craig Berube and his coaching staff have the remaining 20 games to figure out the chemistry.
Top-four defenceman
On defence, the Maple Leafs would not have had the assets to trade for Carlo. The Morgan Rielly–Oliver Ekman-Larsson pairing, although it had some decent games this season, is not optimal. Ekman-Larsson is playing on his wrong side and is playing too high in the lineup. Once Chris Tanev returns from injury, Ekman-Larsson could provide snarl and some offence to the third pairing.
More importantly, the Maple Leafs needed another legitimate top-four defenceman, preferably a defensive-defenceman to play next to Morgan Rielly. For years, it feels like Rielly has been forced to play a game that is against his skillset: a defensive game. Rielly’s skillset is generating offence, not trying to be a defensive rock. Carlo will hopefully fill this need for this year and two years after for a cap hit of $3.485M.
With the addition of Carlo, the Maple Leafs defence corps, once Tanev returns, looks something like this:
Morgan Rielly–Brandon Carlo
Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev
Oliver Eckman-Larsson–Simon Benoit
This defence looks much more difficult to play against heading into the playoffs.
What about Mitch Marner?
Signing Rantanen would have meant that Mitch Marner would no longer be a Maple Leaf after the season is over. Marner is expected to earn $12M-14M on a long-term contract after this season. There is no way the Maple Leafs could fit everyone, including Rantanen, under the salary cap next season. That being said, if it came to choosing between Marner or Rantanen, I would rather have Rantanen, only because Rantanen has a history of producing in the playoffs.
However, if the Maple Leafs don’t go on a deep playoff run with Rantanen, then they are stuck with much of the same that we have seen in the last eight years. Over-priced forward superstars that can’t get it done in the playoffs, and as a result, not enough salary cap to make improvements.
On the other hand, if Marner puts the team on his back this playoffs, and the Maple Leafs go on a deep run, I think you should consider re-signing Marner. With the salary cap increasing by $25.5M over the next three seasons, there could be a way to make it work. However, if the superstars fail to carry the team through a deep playoff run, then you are under no obligation to re-sign Marner, and spend that $12M-14M elsewhere.
Overall
Overall, I think solidifying the bottom-six and defence for the next several seasons outweighs the benefits that Rantanen could bring. In addition, the Maple Leafs have an opportunity to move on from the over-price forward model if the superstars fail for a ninth year in a row. Signing Rantanen could ensure more of the same.
In addition, the Maple Leafs hang onto Easton Cowan, who could become a key contributor next year for the Maple Leafs. If Cowan does not have a huge impact on the Maple Leafs next season, the team can move him to address other roster holes.
What do you think? Should the Maple Leafs have gone all-in on Mikko Rantanen? Let us know your thoughts below!
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