As trade deadline coverage wound to a close Friday, the rumour mills in Toronto started churning. Multiple reports from Nick Kypreos, Chris Johnston and Elliotte Friedman made one thing clear…
Toronto wanted Mikko Rantanen at the deadline. They wanted him bad.
Now, before we get into this article, I want to preface some things and be fair to the player. Of course, Mitch Marner has not come out explicitly to say anything that will be mentioned in this article; much of what I’m writing is inferences I’m drawing from media reports and my memories from the 2019 contract negotiation between the two parties.
Saturday’s headlines
Per Friedman, Carolina initially wanted Marner in the trade for Rantanen. Instead of shutting that avenue down, Toronto approached Marner about waiving his no-movement clause. The player declined.
Friedman’s report came after the Kypreos and Johnston reports the day prior, but it set one key stone in place: Toronto was not trying to build a super roster. The Leafs did not intend to commit to a core of Matthews, Nylander, Rantanen and Marner for the next three years as the second iteration of the “Core Four”. They were trying to get a safety net and replacement for the pending Leafs free agent.
If there’s anything you should take away from the Friedman report, it’s that:
- The Leafs and Marner are not close on a contract extension
- Toronto is trying to show Marner that they’re willing to move on
Rumours about the Marner negotiations have been relatively quiet the last few weeks. Between Marner’s 4 Nations performance, and the lack of public negotiation, Marner’s stock amongst Leafs faithful was about as high as it’d been in years.
Then Friday happened.
Public negotiating or media spin?
Immediately after the deadline, two reports came out on the timeline. First from Kypreos, we learned that Toronto had Minten, Cowan and two firsts on the board and that Toronto was willing to pay the Finnish star $105–110M over an eight-year term.
The tweet that generated far more buzz came minutes later from Johnston, who informed fans that Marner was reportedly “more than willing” to go to the market in the offseason.
There’s a chance these tweets are just the media drumming up controversy for ratings. For example, I find Kypreo’s claim that Carolina turned down the Cowan package because of a potential playoff matchup somewhat dubious.
However, if Kypreos’ reporting on the Rantanen offer is true, that means Toronto was comfortable offering the former Stanley Cup champion $13.125 to $13.75M AAV for eight years. Now this next little bit is pure speculation from me, as an outsider with no insights on the true negotiations, but if what Kypreo’s is saying is true, the Leafs likely offered Marner contracts in a similar range.
It wouldn’t make sense for Toronto to completely rip up a nine-year relationship with Marner just to shake up the team midseason. Especially not when the 27-year-old is on pace for his best season in the NHL. The only reason Toronto would be willing to move Marner for Rantanen would be if they believed Rantanen would accept a contract now that Marner would not.
On the other hand, history tells us the Johnston tweet could be some good old-fashioned public negotiating. If the Kypreos and Friedman reports are true, the Marner camp could’ve seen the Rantanen extension offer as Toronto trying to gain leverage on the negotiation and push him out.
Aftermath
Is anyone getting déjà vu from 2019?
Leafs fans will remember vividly the summer of 2019, when Marner’s last contract negotiations dragged on, casting a shadow over the entire offseason. At that time, Marner’s camp strategically leaked information through the media (including going to Columbus for an offer sheet, and playing the season out in Switzerland). Marner eventually did sign, but only after a prolonged standoff. Some of the fanbase, to this day, feel that the team got the raw end of the deal.
From Toronto’s perspective, floating Marner’s name in trade talks sends a strong message. Brad Treliving seems intent on avoiding the pitfalls of the organization’s past negotiations with the mercurial superstar. This management group seems determined not to repeat previous mistakes by allowing a single player’s demands to dictate and pigeonhole the team’s flexibility.
My Take
Assuming Toronto goes far in the playoffs, I think Marner will likely be back in Toronto, but he won’t be signed until after July 1. I’m certain that he will go out to the market in search of a team that will pay him an outrageous AAV, the same way Columbus did back in 2019. With the cap rising and certain teams like Chicago desperate to jump start their competitive window, there will be takers willing to eat the extra million per year to add a player of his calibre.
Marner will probably allow the Leafs to match that deal or at least make an offer in the ballpark range. For example, if Chicago offers 15M AAV x seven years, I imagine a 14M AAV offer from Toronto likely gets it done. I do think the endgame for Marner and Toronto is exactly what I just mentioned: a long-term contract at $14M AAV after a few days testing the market.
If Toronto is bounced in either the first or second round of the playoffs, however, all bets are off. I could easily see a world where Toronto lets both Marner and Tavares go in an attempt to reshape the identity of the team.
Until Marner’s contract is finalized, whether in Toronto or somewhere else, this is all just speculation. All signs, however, point to a potentially tense first week of unrestricted free agency for both team and player.
More drama
Ultimately, this situation boils down to trust, leverage, and the future direction of the Maple Leafs. Both sides have signaled their readiness to walk away if necessary. Until then, expect more rumours, more media spins, and more reading between the lines. After all, it wouldn’t be Toronto without drama, would it?
