The Toronto Maple Leafs had two clear needs going into the trade deadline: a third-line centre and a right-handed defenceman. To his credit, Brad Treliving managed to add at both of these positions, bringing in Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo, without giving up a meaningful roster player. Now that the roster is set, let’s look at the third line and see what player combinations might work best.
What we’ve seen so far
The third line combination that has seen the most ice time this season is Nicholas Roberston—Max Domi—Bobby McMann. They’ve been together for 185:28 of ice time, and over that period, they have a Corsi For percentage of 48.82%, a Fenwick For percentage of 50%, and a Goals For percentage of 56.25%.
The Goals For percentage might seem impressive, but looking a little further into the numbers shows the true story. This line combination has nine total goals for, with seven against, and an Expected Goals For percentage of only 42.76%.
Beyond the numbers, the eye test this season hasn’t been good. The third line is not driving offence, and Max Domi at centre has been exposed for his poor defensive play. Scott Laughton should be an upgrade, as he plays a more physical shutdown style. He’s more likely to support the defence than the offensive-minded Domi, for whom a move to the wing might suit his playstyle better.
The new addition
Let’s work with the assumption that Scott Laughton is the de facto third-line centre. His first showing in that role, in the Leafs’ loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, was less than stellar, as Laughton himself would admit. Speaking after the game, he said:
“I’ve got a lot better. I think I can provide a lot more…I’ll be better. I was probably over thinking in some situations. More talk. I’ll talk to my linemates more, figure out their tendencies, and build on our game to be part of the solution here.”
With Max Pacioretty on LTIR, there is a spot available at second-line left wing, which seems to have been filled by Bobby McMann. There is an argument to slot Domi into that spot, but McMann probably fits the role of a forechecker and corner man better. McMann can act as the grinder in puck battles, freeing up Tavares to create plays and Nylander to finish them.
If Domi doesn’t fit on the second line—and his $3.75M AAV is probably too high to bury on the fourth line—then he becomes the third line left-winger.
This leaves one more spot available on the third line, to be filled by one of Pontus Holmberg or Nick Robertson. Given the obvious lack of data with Scott Laughton, we’re forced to examine each of these players in relation to Max Domi.
Two players, one spot
Domi and Robertson have been together this season for 270:19 minutes. They average a Corsi For percentage of 49.65%, a Fenwick For percentage of 50.60%, but an Expected Goals For percentage of only 43.57%. This makes sense as both players struggle defensively, as has been apparent this season.
Domi and Holmberg have been on the ice together for 84:31 minutes. In that time, they’ve averaged a Corsi For percentage of 55.13%, a Fenwick For percentage of 56.73%, and an Expected Goals For percentage of 62.0%. These are definitely more impressive numbers than Robertson’s numbers; however at less than a third of the ice time.
Domi the odd man out?
What if Craig Berube decides to be bold and omit Domi from the third line altogether? This would likely mean a third line of Robertson—Laughton—Holmberg. Frankly, I think the chances of Berube putting Domi on the fourth line are smaller than the Sharks winning the Cup this year but who knows.
Robertson and Holmberg have played together for 145:33 minutes this season. During that time, they’ve averaged a Corsi For percentage of 51.67%, a Fenwick For percentage of 54.55%, and an Expected Goals For percentage of 47.84%.
These are better numbers than Robertson and Domi, and significantly longer time on ice than Holmberg and Domi.
No clear answer
Just simply looking at the numbers, the optimal third line would be Max Domi—Scott Laughton—Pontus Holmberg. However, personally speaking, this feels bad. The line doesn’t feel like a true shut down, owing mainly to Domi’s defensive shortcomings, but also, there’s a lack of offensive finish.
Slotting Robertson in over Holmberg definitely adds offensive finish but likely exacerbates the defensive issues. A bold play, one that I would like to see Berube at least try out for a little bit, is Robertson—Laughton—Holmberg. To me, this ticks all the boxes. Laughton provides the defensive confidence, Holmberg can forecheck and win puck battles, and Robertson can finish. Plus, even with his cap hit, putting Max Domi on the fourth line massively improves it.
The Leafs are going to cruise to a playoff spot, although this season isn’t over yet. Winning the Atlantic Division is going to be crucial to avoid a first-round matchup against Tampa Bay or Florida—both of whom are bona fide cup contenders this year.
With 19 games left in the season, two new players to fit into your lineup, and a very close divisional race, Craig Berube has his work cut out for him. Hopefully, he can find a combination that finally gives us some playoff scoring.
Stats provided by www.naturalstattrick.com.
