Coming into the 2024–25 NHL season, Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews was regarded as a top-five talent in the league. He had just come off a Rocket Richard Trophy-winning 69-goal, 107-point campaign in 2023–24, and was named the team’s 26th captain back in August–taking over for the 25th captain, John Tavares.
But while fans expected Matthews to continue his electric run this season, the results have been quite underwhelming, leading us at 6ix On Ice to ponder the question: what’s wrong with Auston Matthews?
The numbers don’t lie
Auston Matthews has missed considerable time this season due to injury, but even then, his per-game goal totals just haven’t been up to his usual standard. Last season, the 27-year-old centre averaged 0.85 goals per game (69 goals in 81 games). However, this season, his total has dropped considerably to 0.47 goals per game (23 goals in 49 games)–nearly a 50% drop from last season.
Mind you, Matthews has upped his assist totals this season. In fact, he is currently putting up the best assist numbers in his career at 0.67 assists per game (33 assists in 49 games). But apart from his assists–and his face-off percentage being up by just over 3%–Matthews has been worse in every way this season, shown especially through his plus-minus, which is currently sitting at a plus-2–his worst total since 2018–19–compared to a plus-31 last season. There’s just no denying the decline Matthews has been on this season.
Injuries haven’t helped
Indeed, Matthews’ numbers haven’t been up to his usual standard, but he also hasn’t been completely healthy throughout the season. His injury problems initially began during a game against the Minnesota Wild on Nov. 3 in which Matthews sustained an upper-body injury that led to him missing nearly a full month of hockey.
Matthews returned to action on Nov. 30 and played in 11 games before being sidelined again to rest his injury. The Leafs captain wouldn’t return to the team’s lineup until Jan. 4, and had a solid return, registering seven points in his first three games back. He has still performed well since that three-game stretch–leading the team with 26 points in 22 games since Jan. 9–but not close to the 2.33 points per game he had in the three games following his return.
Something just ain’t right
Simply put, Matthews just hasn’t looked right as of late, and this season in general. He appears slower on the ice and his shots just haven’t been going in like in years past. Matthews is putting up the fourth most shots per game in the league this season (four per game), but his shooting percentage is ridiculously low at 11.7%. That’s 207th in the league and just the seventh highest on the team, with guys like Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann and even Nick Robertson having higher percentages. In comparison, Matthews was at 18.7% last season (16th in the league) and led the Leafs in that regard.
If you look closer at his shots, specifically his wrist shot–his most effective shot in 2023–24–the numbers get even more polarizing. Last season, Matthews scored 36 goals off of wrist shots, which was 52% of his total goals on the season. In 2024–25, Matthews has scored just 12 goals off of wrist shots, still the same percentage in comparison to his total goals, but far less effective overall when considering his extremely low shooting percentage.
Matthews has had his fair share of setbacks this season injury-wise, but he has simply just not looked like himself. The play of his teammates like Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares have lightened the load for Matthews and still allowed the team to stay in the race with Florida for first in the Atlantic Division. But if the Leafs are to capture that top spot and win when the games matter most, they will need their captain to return to some semblance of his form from past seasons.
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