Last night’s game was a possible playoff preview between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers. The Maple Leafs are coming off playing nine games in eight different cities since the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. During this stretch of games, the Maple Leafs have not played playoff hockey. These games were characterized by a lack of goal scoring, being hemmed in their own zone, and blowing leads. This was especially evident against contenders.
The Panthers had a two-point lead for first in the Atlantic, while the Leafs had a game in hand. This was a golden opportunity for the Maple Leafs to reclaim first in the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs would likely prefer to play a wild card team in the first round, which would likely be a more favourable matchup, than one of the Florida teams.
The Maple Leafs saw Chris Tanev return to the lineup after missing six straight games. The Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev pairing has easily been the Maple Leafs’ best pairing this season. Newcomers Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo participated in their first practice and played in their third game last night, looking to continue to build chemistry with the team. A near-fully healthy Maple Leafs team with two days rest had zero excuses.
The Maple Leafs started on time
Good things happen when you start on time, especially against a contender. The Maple Leafs came flying out of the gate, which has been a criticism of their play this last leg of the season, especially against contenders.
The Maple Leafs pushed the game in the first few minutes. This led to the Maple Leafs capitalizing on a bad line change by the Panthers. William Nylander drew two Panthers on him, Calle Järnkrok drew two Panthers on him by driving towards the net. This opened up a lane for a wonderful pass by Nylander to John Tavares, and Tavares finishes:
This was followed by a big hit by Max Domi on former Maple Leaf draft pick Carter Verhaeghe, then Domi absolutely filled in Nate Schmidt in a fight:
After the recent stretch of games, this is exactly how you want the Maple Leafs to start the game—a game with favourable playoff seeding on the line.
However, other than a third-period push, this was about all the positives in last night’s game. The last time I checked, hockey games are 60 minutes, not five.
The Maple Leafs lack grit
No, I do not mean truculence. I mean the strength of character. The Maple Leafs often play to not lose games, versus playing to win games. When was the last time this year we saw the Maple Leafs utterly dominate an opponent for the full 60 minutes? Like in the loss against the Avalanche, the Maple Leafs played the majority of the game hemmed in their own end, unable to generate offensive zone pressure. And last night, the only time they were able to get sustained offensive zone pressure was 45 minutes into the game and was as a result of their third power play. Guess what? Shortly after the penalty expired, the Maple Leafs scored.
The Panthers were relentless on the forecheck, often pressuring the man up high. This forces the puck carrier to make a quick decision, which also increases the risk of making mistakes. The Panthers are no strangers to this kind of hockey…it’s what the playoffs are, and the reigning Stanley Cup champions are no strangers. Why are the Maple Leafs unable to play with this level of intensity and grit?
The Panthers also know how to play the officiating game. Provoke the opposing team just enough in scrums post-whistle, but not enough to draw a penalty. Or worse, get the opponent to draw a penalty. The Panthers are also able to angle the oncoming forwards when they dump the puck in such a way that it looks like a pick, but it is ambiguous. Are these penalties? Probably. But after eight years of playoff failures, we know that the whistles go away. The Maple Leafs fail to adapt year after year. It’s simply not in their DNA to play playoff hockey.
The Maple Leafs fail to rise to the occasion
Suffice it to say, last night’s game is another example of how the Maple Leafs failed to rise to the occasion. If this team dominated the Panthers, or at least played the game where it was a true toss-up, then sure. But this team does not deserve the benefit of the doubt after failing so many times for nearly a decade.
The hot power play that was eighth coming into last night’s game, six for their last 14 attempts, went 0–3. The penalty kill allowed two goals on three attempts for the Panthers. The penalty kill now ranks 16th with a 78.4%. Credit to the Panthers for capitalizing on their chances, which is something the Maple Leafs do not do enough. The Maple Leafs cannot rise to the occasion at critical points in critical games.
The other problem is that the Maple Leafs’ stars do not carry the team. I also don’t mean Mitch Marner either, who has been fantastic since returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off. I am referring to the 69-goal scorer, Rocket Richard winner last year and new team captain, Auston Matthews. Matthews did not rise to the occasion in a crucial game that could be the difference in the Maple Leafs playing a wild card team in the first round instead of the Florida Panthers or the Tampa Bay Lightning. In last night’s game, it was $3.75M centre/winger Max Domi that rose to the occasion.
Matthews is on pace for 29 goals this season, which is by far the worst season of his career. From the moment the season started to his first injury, he looked off. When he came back from his first injury, it seemed rushed because he still looked off. Between returning from his second injury and the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, Matthews looked dialed in. Finally, the Maple Leafs looked like they could muster a deep run. However, since returning, he has scored three goals in his last ten games, with one being an empty-netter. He has scored one goal 5-on-5 in his last 16 games. It begs the question: What is wrong with Auston Matthews? If he is injured, which seems likely, then rest him.
The Maple Leafs have solid goaltending this season between Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz. Their defence corps is probably the best in literal decades with the addition of Brandon Carlo, and they are all signed longer term. But here’s the thing: The Maple Leafs’ biggest issue come playoffs has not been goaltending nor poor defence; it’s been the fact that the star players can’t put the puck in the back of the net. Period. If Matthews does not regain his form quick, then this team is not going on a deep run.
The mix does not work
It’s hard to see games against true contenders like the Panthers and think that this Maple Leafs roster is in the same conversation. The sad part about last night’s game was that the Panthers were missing Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk, and newcomer Brad Marchand. Do we think this current roster would contain a fully healthy Panthers team? This was clearly just a regular season game for the short-handed Panthers, whereas the Maple Leafs were trying and were heavily outclassed.
They’re clearly not even close. This core just cannot get it done in critical games. What’s frustrating is that the Maple Leafs’ management has doubled down on this core year after year, instead of pivoting to make substantial team changes. The Panthers showed last night why they are Stanley Cup contenders and why the Maple Leafs are just playoff contenders.
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