The Florida Panthers currently lead the Atlantic Division, four points clear of the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs do have a game in hand, but did just lose in regulation to the Panthers, essentially translating to a four-point swing.
The Leafs play the Panthers twice more this season, so there are opportunities to make up ground. The divisional title is still within reach, which would mean a Battle of Ontario matchup against the Ottawa Senators.
For this piece, we’ll look at a possible playoff matchup against the Florida Panthers, which would most likely be in the second round (although don’t count out Tampa Bay).
Forwards:
Carter Verhaeghe – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Brad Marchand* – Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk*
Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Evan Rodrigues
Jesper Boqvist – Tomas Nosek – A.J. Greer
*currently injured
The Panthers roll all their forward lines, not relying on any single one to drive most of the offence. Sam Reinhart leads the team in points at 70, in comparison to Marner’s team leading 80. However, the Panthers have six players at 40+ points: Reinhart, Barkov, Tkachuk, Verhaeghe, Bennett, and Lundell. Importantly, the three top lines all represent that the Panthers get a meaningful offence from their top-nine. In comparison, the Leafs have five players at 40+ points, all from the top-six.
Down the middle the Panthers are formidable, with all four of their centres averaging over 50% in Corsi For Percentage and Expected Goals For Percentage.
The Panthers play a physical style of hockey, but with the skill to back it up. They are hard on the forecheck, focusing on winning puck battles after dumping it into the offensive zone. They grind in front of the net, as we saw on Thursday night. Adding Brad Marchand to this already tenacious and, frankly, mean team feels like it shouldn’t be allowed. The second line of Marchand–Bennett–Tkachuk might be the hardest group to play against in the league.
There really are very few weaknesses in the Panthers forward corps. Every single one of their players, with the exception of Seth Jones, has averaged over 50% CF% and 50%+ xGF% this season.
The Florida Panthers forward group is as formidable as it was last year, if not more with the addition of Brad Marchand. There are some question marks given Matthew Tkachuks long-term injury, but I’m not even sure wild horses would prevent that guy from lacing it up in the playoffs. Plus, as we saw this week, even missing Marchand and Tkachuk, the Panthers are dangerous.
Defence:
Aaron Ekblad* – Gustav Forsling
Seth Jones – Niko Mikkola
Dmitry Kulikov – Nate Schmidt
*currently suspended, expected back for the playoffs
The Florida Panthers certainly loaded up at the trade deadline, adding both Brad Marchand and Seth Jones. Of the two, Jones is probably the more impactful player. He adds offence from the blueline, and fills a hole left by Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. While his ratings have always been a sore spot, the Panthers can certainly maximize his impact on the second-pair.
With Ekblad expected back in time for the playoffs after serving his 20-game suspension for using banned substances, the Florida defence is up there with the best in the league.
As we saw on Tuesday, the Panthers are masters at the subtle pick in the defensive zone, without taking an interference penalty. With the fact that penalties are even less likely to be called in the playoffs, this certainly poses a challenge for the Leafs. Toronto under Berube plays a dump-and-chase style with a hard forecheck and a concentration on shots from the point. The Panthers are excellent at both preventing the forecheck from reaching the boards in time, and at winning the puck battles in the corners.
Power Play:
The Panthers have a strong power play, ranking 10th in the league at 24.1%. This is slightly shy of the Leafs ninth best 24.2%. With the skill the Panthers possess, both units are true threats. With Tkachuk out of the lineup, Bennett has stepped up to the first unit and scored twice on the power play against the Leafs on Thursday.
Goaltending:
If there is a “weakness” in this Florida team, goaltending is it (I know they have Sergei Bobrovsky, just keep reading). The Athletic recently released their ranking of all 32 goalie tandems in the League and the Panthers ranked eighth. For comparison, the Leafs were at fifth.
The Panthers have had league-average goaltending this season. Bobrovsky has a save percentage of .907 this season and a Goals Saved Above Expected of 5.8. Florida traded Spencer Knight, who’s been having a better year, to Chicago in the Seth Jones trade, making Vítek Vaněček the backup.
Vaněček has had a rough year with a save percentage of only .886 and a GSAx of -7.8, so don’t expect, barring catastrophe, to see him in the playoffs.
Despite Bobrovsky’s average season, he is a different beast in the playoffs. The last two years, he’s had a GSAx of 19.44 in the playoffs, best in the NHL. He’s shown he has another gear in the playoffs and can clutch it out, and nothing in his play this season suggests he’s lost that.
History versus the Leafs:
We lost. In five. After the first playoff series win in nearly two decades. We don’t need to revisit this any further.
The Athletic ranks the Florida Panthers as most likely to win the Stanley Cup, at a whopping 16%. The Leafs ranked sixth at only 8%. I would be willing to bet that most Leafs fans are too traumatized to actually want any of the possible first-round matchups, but we certainly don’t want to see the Panthers until as late as possible.
