Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have been stapled to each other’s sides for practically the last four seasons. Every time they get split, it doesn’t last long and they are back with each other on the first line in no time. This is still the case under Craig Berube.
So, if the Toronto Maple Leafs are married to them as a pair, the rest of the lineup needs to be deep and skilled enough to hold their own.
The combination of John Tavares and William Nylander has also been a staple, with the two playing over 520 minutes together at 5v5 this season. But unlike Marner and Matthews, the pair hasn’t been that great. They own just 49% of the expected goals when on the ice together.
But while Marner and Matthews have Matthew Knies, Nylander and Tavares don’t have anyone. They’ve played with just about everybody, never finding a true third member of the second line.
Whether it’s Berube not liking something he’s seeing, or wanting more bottom-six offence, for some reason Bobby McMann hasn’t played very much with the duo. But he should.
McMann should easily be the Maple Leafs second-line left winger, and they need to figure that out before the playoffs.
The results
The sample size is tiny, just 37 minutes, but McMann with Tavares and Nylander has dominated. They own almost 60% of the expected goals at 5v5, over 60% of scoring chances, and have outscored their opponents 2–1.
They also own over 55% of shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts, meaning not only do they generate chances, but they dominate puck possession.
And possession has been the Leafs biggest weakness this year. Craig Berube has hammered a north-south style game, which is the direction of the league at this point. This type of hockey translates better to the postseason, where defence gets tighter and forechecking becomes paramount.
But you still need to have the puck to be successful, and Toronto has struggled in that regard. They dump and chase a ton (at a top-five rate in the league), but don’t hem teams in their end, or generate multiple chances in a single shift.
These three do, though. They find a great balance between a hard forecheck with McMann and a puck carrier with Nylander. Their styles fit, and the results have been stellar. So the combo only playing 37 minutes together so far doesn’t really make sense.
The playoff lineup
Toronto’s playoff woes have always stayed the same: they can’t score. So, keeping their best depth scorer in McMann in the bottom-six makes sense on the surface, hoping to spread the wealth a bit and have a bottom-six that can produce some offence.
But as we’ve seen recently, McMann really doesn’t bring much when he’s not playing with the stars. Yes, he has 19 goals this season, but most of them have come while playing in the top-six.
When he’s out there with Nick Robertson or Max Domi, McMann is not the same. He doesn’t generate the same high-danger scoring chances, nor does he get the chance to show off his shot on the rush. He needs to be around highly skilled players to succeed. This is a similar story to Knies, but Knies actually gets to play with them.
If the top-six is:
Knies – Matthews – Marner
McMann – Tavares – Nylander
It still gives the Leafs a decent bottom-six. Scott Laughton needs to be way better because of the first-round pick and Nikita Grebenkin that the Leafs lost, so the expectation should be he anchors the third line. Throw him with Robertson and Domi and you have a solid third/fourth line that can score.
And David Kampf with Steven Lorentz and Calle Jarnkrok has all the makings of a great checking line. If someone struggles, Pontus Holmberg can come in.
At the end of the day, the Leafs are always going to feel a forward short, especially with Laughton’s struggles. But they can’t sacrifice their best second line for a marginally better bottom-six.
Not much time left
Toronto doesn’t have much time to figure this out, but McMann with Tavares and Nylander is the answer. It’s obvious, and Berube should see it.
The blender that Sheldon Keefe used to put the lines through is not a winning strategy, and the Leafs should have cemented combinations ready for Game 1. That means they have very little room for experimentation left.
But McMann has earned a spot in the top-six, and gives Toronto the best chance of actually scoring. He needs to be pencilled in alongside Tavares and Nylander, no matter who the Leafs play in Round 1.
