The Toronto Maple Leafs have seen many lineup changes throughout the 2024–25 season, be it due to injuries or just coach Craig Berube trying to find the right line combinations. Through it all, however, one duo has primarily stuck together, and that duo is right-winger William Nylander and centre John Tavares.
These two Leafs have been franchise staples, with Nylander playing his rookie season with the team in 2016–17 and Tavares joining the team via unrestricted free agency during the summer of 2018. But while the two have excelled in their Leafs tenure and this season specifically—more on that later—would it be more beneficial for Toronto to have these two forwards on separate lines?
Goal-scoring duo
Last season, Auston Matthews was far and away the team’s top goal scorer, with 69 tucks in 81 games, but that has changed in 2024–25 with Matthews missing considerable time due to a lingering upper-body injury, limiting him to 27 goals in 55 games. In his absence, right-winger Mitch Marner has been the leading point scorer with 85 points through 69 games, but Nylander has carried the goal effort with a team-leading 40 goals in 70 games (second in the league). And not too far back with the second most goals has been Tavares with 32 goals in only 63 games (18th in the league). Both players even put up two goals and two assists each in Tuesday night’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Nylander and Tavares are the second and third-highest-paid players on the team, respectively–Nylander’s contract carries an annual value of $11.5M per season, and Tavares’ deal pays him $11M per season per Puckpedia– so putting up team-leading totals is something they should be doing regardless. But the stats they have put up in the absence of the usual Matthews have been much needed and are a big reason for the Leafs currently sitting first in the Atlantic Division as playoff time draws near.
Tavares and Nylander line combinations
The two forwards have seen time on a plethora of different line combinations this season, but there are three that have been the most utilized by Berube. For a good portion of the season, the Leafs’ second forward unit consisted of Tavares and Nylander, along with veteran Max Pacioretty occupying the left wing. This trio was on the ice together for a total of 181:19 minutes and also put up the second most total goals (12) of any line the Leafs have put out this year–the most being the 30 goals supplied by the primary first line of Matthew Knies, Marner and Matthews according to Dobber Sports.
Unfortunately, Pacioretty was placed on the team’s long-term injured reserve on Feb. 28 and hasn’t played in a game since Feb. 8. In his absence, the team has mainly relied on two other wingers to fill the void left by Pacioretty. One such winger has been Pontus Holmberg, but more recently, the team has opted for 28-year-old Bobby McMann to play alongside Tavares and Nylander, with both lines having varying degrees of success.
The Nylander, Tavares, and Holmberg line has seen more action than the other with 120:20 minutes together this season and eight goals scored in that time. While the more recent Nylander, Tavares and McMann line hasn’t played as much (80:11 minutes of ice time), they have still managed some okay numbers with five goals.
Should the dynamic duo split?
Choosing to split up Nylander and Tavares is a tough call to make. With both men on the ice and at all strengths, the team has a goals-for percentage of 65.49% according to Natural Stat Trick–nearly 10% higher than the 55.64% when Matthews and Marner are on the ice together. That drops around 6% when only one of the two is on the ice, and just over 23% when neither Nylander nor Tavares are on the ice. With these statistics in mind, the choice becomes whether the Leafs want one line with immense goal-scoring potential, or to spread the wealth a bit more amongst the top-two lines.
One potential move could be to have Nylander play at the left wing on the first line, shifting Knies to the second line with Tavares and McMann. When Nylander, Matthews and Marner are on the ice together, the Leafs have a 62.5% goals-for percentage, not quite as much as Nylander and Tavares, but still very solid. And if Matthew Knies were to play alongside Tavares, the numbers show promise as well, with the two giving the Leafs a 66% goals-for percentage when on the ice together–even higher than Nylander and Tavares.
The one caveat with shifting Nylander to the top line is that he would be playing at left wing, which, although he has played it in spurts this season, isn’t usually his main spot. The team could continue with the status quo and have a strong scoring chance on their second line, but with the stats in mind, splitting up Nylander and Tavares could give the Leafs a more even and potentially stronger scoring output on their top-two lines. And as the Stanley Cup playoffs get closer, a shifting of their firepower could serve them well.
