The Toronto Maple Leafs lone playoff series win of the salary cap era came against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Leafs loaded up as big as ever during the Auston Matthews era to do so, plunging the team into a draft pick deficit for years. Even still, it took six games to defeat the Lightning. The season prior, it was the Lightning who came out victorious.
Now there is the potential for another playoff showdown between the Leafs and their suspiciously similar-looking division rivals. Let’s preview the potential grudge match against the Lightning to see which team can strike twice.
Forwards
Hagel—Cirelli—Kucherov
Guentzel—Point—Gourde
Bjorkstrand—Paul—Goncalves
Girgensons—Glendenning—Chaffee
Extras: Geekie, Atkinson
The Lightning took a hard stance with former captain Steven Stamkos, ultimately parting ways for cap reasons. The Lightning have made good on their end of the bargain, assembling a deeper forward group than they have had in previous seasons. Of course, the group is still led by the all-world talents of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Most interesting will be their deployment, shown on separate lines here, which will force matchups to be a factor in a playoff series. One of Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel should be paired alongside top-line forwards, rounding out a strong quartet of scorers.
The Lightning boast a lot of other talents, including strength at centre with Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul. Both are capable defenders, willing physical combatants, and intense competitors. Yanni Gourde is not quite the player he was when he left the Lightning, yet embodies many of the same characteristics. To an extent, pure checkers like Zemgus Girgensons and Luke Glendenning continue the theme of defensively capable centres.
The two biggest x-factors are Oliver Bjorkstrand and Gage Goncalves. The recently acquired Bjorkstrand has long been an impressive possession winger. He could help his line dominate in a playoff series, with enough defence to shut down opponents and enough offence to punish them. Goncalves, meanwhile, is an older rookie making his ascent into a regular role. There has always been an element of skill to his game, but Goncalves has added some of the patented wily snarl present in all the smaller, skilled Lightning forwards. Connor Geekie might deserve some consideration in the future, but might not be ready to be a playoff x-factor.
Defence
Hedman—Moser
McDonagh—Cernak
Lilleberg—Perbix
Extras: Raddysh
On the blueline the theme is clearly size, as the group might be more stout than in seasons past. Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh might be on the older side, but both are still strong enough to be the pillars of this blueline. While Hedman will go down as one of the premier players of his era, McDonagh should not be overlooked as one of the steadiest defenders over that same span.
The Lightning have been conscientious in adding towering right shots over the seasons. Erik Cernak and Nick Perbix fit the bill as sound defenders. Meanwhile, Darren Raddysh does have some offensive capabilities to round out the right side, acting as a secondary power play option. Emil Lilleberg continues to grow into a third-pairing role on the left side. While certainly not the flashiest group, the Lightning have a clear stylistic preference for bigger bodies who can handle physicality.
The biggest change has been the addition of J.J. Moser. Acquired for the Utah Hockey Club in a deal that sent Mikael Sergachev the other way, Moser has proven a strong possession player. Playing on the right, his weak side, as well as up and down the lineup, Moser has been good value for the Lightning.
Goalies
Vasilevskiy
Johansson
As usual, it will be Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Lightning. Though he is one of the most feared goalies in the league, and having a stellar season, the Leafs seem to have success against him. Regardless, Vasilevskiy will likely be the best goalie in any series he plays in, his Stanley Cups giving him an aura of invincibility. Jonas Johansson features as a true backup.
The Leafs strategy last time seemed to be prioritizing traffic in front of Vasilevskiy. Hardly a revolutionary tactic, the Leafs are better suited than ever to do so thanks to the emphasis of coach Craig Berube and the inside scoring added by GM Brad Treliving.
Versus the Leafs
Thanks to their success against Vasilevskiy, and the fact that their lone playoff series win came against them, the Lightning might be seen as the preferred first-round opponent for the Leafs. Any path to winning the series revolves around the Leafs getting to Vasilevskiy, allowing their goalies to at least equal his efforts. Neutralizing Kucherov on the power play will be crucial as well, as the skilled winger can ruin a game if his opponents slack on coverage even slightly.
The Lightning are full value this season, and still have a chance to win the Atlantic Division outright. Combined with their experience and pedigree, the Lightning will be a daunting playoff opponent for any team. Coach John Cooper will be his masterful self in guiding the team.
The team has not won a playoff series since losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2021–22 Stanley Cup Final. After losing to the Leafs in 2022–23, the Lightning bowed out to the eventual champion Florida Panthers in five games last season. The team will be eager to get back to its winning ways, and the improved forward depth might be enough to regain their lustre. On paper, the Leafs might have the edge over the Lightning, but such is hardly solace once the puck drops.
