The Toronto Maple Leafs look like a remarkably different team under coach Craig Berube. Ahead of training camp this season, in September, Berube outlined the system changes he was looking to make, saying:
“We definitely want to be a north-south team, but there is some high-end skill here … I am not here to take the sticks out of these guys’ hands, but there has to be an identity of how we want to play, and we want to play a north-south game.
“We want to be a hard team to play against. We want to check. At the same time, we have a bunch of players with the ability to score goals.”
What’s so different?
It’s clear that Berube is a defensive-minded coach, as evidenced by the playstyle of the 2019 St. Louis Blues, who obviously won the Stanley Cup. Berube prioritizes a hard forecheck, defensive structure, and a more dump-and-chase offensive style.
This defence-first mindset has been reflected somewhat in the stats—the Leafs goals against/game this season is middle of the pack at 2.97—but the offence is taking a hit because of it.
High danger chances against per 60 minutes are down from last season’s average of 11.26 to 10.15.
While there has been improvement in defensive play over last year, it’s not really been as significant as expected. Shots against per 60 are roughly even at 27.47 compared to last year’s average of 27.67. The Leafs have a 2.51 expected goals against per 60 this season, very slightly down from 2.56 in the 2023–24 season.
The trade off hasn’t been worth it
What has been apparent this season has been the significant drop-off in offensive performance compared to last season. Expected goals for per 60 this season is 2.38, down from 2.73.
High danger chances for per 60 is down from 12.61 in 2023–24 to 10.42 this season. The Leafs have a shots for percentage of 49.73% this year, down from 52.62% and a scoring chances for percentage of 49.02%, down from 51.76%.
Goals for per 60 is also down to 2.53 from 2.99 in 2023–24.
Nowhere has this offensive slowdown been more pronounced than with Auston Matthews, who is having his worst offensive season in a while. He currently has 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points. He’s on pace for 33 goals, a career low. Points-wise, he’s on pace for 78, with a 45-assist pace.
Some of his lack of production can certainly be explained by injuries. Matthews has missed 15 games so far this season, and has certainly not looked his best. His expected goals for percentage is down a whopping ~10% from 63.28% in 2023–24 to 53.34% in 2024–25.
Optimism for the playoffs
Despite the fall off in offensive production, the Leafs are still having a successful season. They currently sit first in the Atlantic division, by one point over the Florida Panthers, who have a game in hand. Winning the division, and avoiding a potential matchup against either the Panthers or the Lightning, seems increasingly crucial this year, and the Leafs are certainly still in the fight.
The big question, therefore, is how this new system will fare in the playoffs. The flashy, high-flying offensive, run-and-gun style of years past has always dried up in the playoffs. While in the regular season, Toronto was able to score its way out of problems, the tighter game in the playoffs stifled our top players, and led to the truly abysmal playoff record of this Leafs era.
This season, the Leafs seem to be better prepared for the playoff style of play, which is characterized by harder checking, stronger neutral zone backcheck, forcing a more dump-and-chase style of play. This is how Berube has wanted the Leafs to play all year, and while yes, it hasn’t looked pretty, it also hasn’t been devastating to the Leafs season.
Discussion is starting around whether Berube’s system is right for this Leafs team. They point to the offensive struggles, defensive lapses, as well as performances such as the season sweep the Leafs suffered against the Sharks as arguments this team is under-performing.
Personally, I think it’s far too early to come to this conclusion. Yes, there are issues in the Leafs structure, yes, they seem to lack a cohesive and consistent identity, but frankly, this is not new. Every single year, we find valid complaints about how this team is playing, and usually they come true in the postseason.
My proposal is we wait to see if a completely different approach brings different results this year. However, if three coaches in ten years all lead to the same outcome, maybe the problem isn’t who is behind the bench.
