Regular seasons have become mundane for much of Leafs Nation, even apathy from its more cynical parties. For others, the late nights of a West Coast road swing might have the team out of sight and mind. Yet something greater is hanging in this silence, an eerie calm before the storms ahead. Beyond the minutiae of the day-to-day, an existential battle rages, the Leafs core tenets hang in the balance.
The upcoming playoffs are a crossroads for the Leafs. The UFA statuses of Mitch Marner and John Tavares, half of the core four, mean significant changes to the Leafs cap reality even before considering the rising cap ceiling. GM Brad Treliving will have the opportunity to drastically reshape the team, perhaps more so than at any point in his tenure.
The players themselves might have prerogatives beyond the Leafs control, but there is still work to be done. How the Leafs perform in this playoffs will paint a clearer picture of what might precede. An opening round loss, especially to a younger and tougher team like the Ottawa Senators, might inform decisions differently than losing in the Stanley Cup Final would. Would another second-round loss to the Florida Panthers seem like progress?
From the top
How does one draw lines between it all? How far up the organization should be in question? MLSE hired a new president, Keith Pelley, just over a year ago, and was bound to have some patience with Leafs president Brendan Shanahan and Raptors president Masai Ujiri. Of course, Ujiri has achieved ultimate glory, whereas Shanahan has not, yet both teams have had their recent struggles. It seems likely that Pelley might have more patience for both, attempting to help both executives before making waves.
More so than Pelley, it might be Shanahan and Treliving that get bold with their decisions in the months ahead. Shanahan has had a long run, simultaneously one of the most successful and disappointing decades in team history. Throughout his time, the Leafs added elite talent, but have been consistently flawed. No team is perfect, but there have been legitimate issues plaguing the Leafs consistently.
Shanahan seems to have twisted about, a contrast between the styles and personalities of Treliving and Craig Berube versus Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe. The combination of Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock is another, a push and pull. Through it all, the Leafs finally have some depth at right defence, and a more balanced blueline in general. The makeup of the forward group is more traditional as well.
Best shot?
One might argue that the last excuse for the core four is having a legitimate team around them. The team has needed two right-handed defencemen of the quality of Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo for some time, has often played fast and loose with goaltending depth, and has lacked size and physicality up front. What could be the final season of the core four has been maximized with a stout traditional approach.
One way or another, the dye will be cast in the weeks ahead. One way or another, the paradigm of the team will come to a reckoning. Even if the Leafs decide to re-sign Marner and Tavares, it will be under a new cap reality, one of Treliving’s design.
On the move?
There have been rumours that Marner might not fit into these plans. He was asked a hypothetical of waiving his no-trade rights, to which he refused. The Leafs were exploring the idea of adding Mikko Rantanen in his stead, perhaps signalling that the team is more open to changing their style than they are their cap approach. With Rantanen locked up, there seems to be no players of such quality available to swap for Marner.
It is likely that Marner will use his UFA leverage, and several fan bases around the league are already daydreaming about signing him. During his last contract negotiation as an RFA, and under a more stagnant cap, there was still rampant speculation that Marner was being poached by other teams. Already, it is rumoured that the Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, and Utah Hockey Club are among those with earnest interest and cap space.
The Leafs could easily look to the Colorado Avalanche for how a divestment from a star player can create a deeper and more complete team. The Avs have strength down the middle, and made a bold bet that Martin Necas could deliver something similar to Rantanen at a fraction of the cost. The Leafs will not have the luxury of trading Marner, and have already depleted much of their draft capital, but there will still be avenues available to explore.
At the very least, Marner was able to achieve some success at the 4 Nations Face-Off. There is space for this to directly help the Leafs, perhaps some bolstered confidence that Marner can make the big play when it counts. The team does seem interested in retaining his services, though speculative.
Unburdened?
Meanwhile, John Tavares has been incredibly hot down the stretch. In the last season of a contract many thought would age poorly, Tavares is free from the burdens of the captaincy and of the team’s top salary. The stagnant cap had more to do with the lucrative UFA deal being overpriced than his play individually.
Given how much Tavares has given to the team, combined with Treliving’s reputation of rewarding veteran players, it is difficult to imagine the two sides will not work out a fair offer. Tavares would be the best UFA centre on the market, save for in the eyes of the most vehement fans of Sam Bennett. As the divisive contract comes to a close, Tavares undeniably held up his end of the bargain.
With a few chapters left to write, Tavares is well within sight of Hall of Fame consideration. For a player who has been under the microscope since he was granted exceptional status to the OHL, Tavares has been consistent and effective more than he has been flashy.
All together
At a certain point, one needs to accept the dichotomy of the Leafs current regime. Where does the blame lie? Is it flawed personalities or flawed processes? Is it merely bad luck and optics? At the end of the day, another first-round loss might make the answers meaningless.
All the same, a deep enough playoff run could change the narrative. Perhaps the Leafs are finally equipped with the high-end talent, overall roster, and most of all scar tissue to take the next step. For many, anything short of a Stanley Cup might not be enough to keep faith. For others, there is nothing left but to wait to see how this potential last hurrah turns out.
