Both of the Toronto Maple Leafs goalies have been fantastic. The duo was a pretty fairly unknown heading into the season, neither of them ever topping more than 28 games in a season.
But they’ve been a top-five tandem in the league all year, never dipping below average at any point. According to MoneyPuck, Anthony Stolarz is fourth (or at least was fourth before last night’s shutout) in goals above expected per 60 minutes, with Joseph Woll not far behind in 16th.
Woll has played more, as Stolarz missed about six weeks due to injury, but Stolarz has generally been just a tad better. The decision about the Game 1 playoff starter has been in the back of everyone’s mind since before the season, but we’ve gotten to a point now where it’s clear who should get the nod.
It’s Anthony Stolarz.
The year in review
To begin the season, Stolarz looked like the best goalie in the league. He led the NHL in save percentage and goals against average at one point, while also sitting in the top three of goals above expected.
Stolarz genuinely looked unstoppable, to a point where it was a given he would come down to earth at some point. He could not play like that all season. No one could.
Then, he got hurt. And Woll looked almost just as good. He commanded the net, and led the Leafs to win after win.
He also climbed the GSAx leaderboard, proving to be a bona fide 1A in the NHL. And on top of his play, the Leafs have always known he is a playoff performer. He holds a ridiculous .933 save percentage in the postseason, and was the reason the Leafs even forced a Game 7 against the Bruins last year.
Even after Stolarz got back, it looked like Woll had temporarily won the net. He played more and played better.
But both netminders have had their “roughest” stretches of the season for the last month or so. I put “roughest” in quotes because neither has been bad by any means, they just haven’t been world beaters like they were.
So, the net was up for grabs again. But now, Stolarz has won five straight, with goals against totals of three, two, one, two, zero.
His play has risen again while Woll’s has plateaued. Woll would easily be good enough to trust heading into Game 1 on most other teams. Unluckily for him, most other teams don’t have Anthony Stolarz.
What it means
With the Leafs situation being so good, they can afford to switch goalies whenever they feel it appropriate. If Stolarz has a weak Game 1, they can immediately switch to Woll (this isn’t what I’d do, but it’s definitely an option).
It’s looking more and more likely they’ll be playing Ottawa, which means whoever’s in net can expect some scoring chances against. Ottawa is a high-flying team that produces a lot of offence, so the pressure will be on.
Whoever is in net is trustworthy. If the Leafs go on a deep run, it could be either of them leading the charge.
But the numbers don’t lie, and Stolarz has been consistently just better than Woll for most of the year, most importantly for the last couple of weeks.
Personally, I’m a Woll guy. I think his technique is impeccable and his presence is calming. But at some point, you just have to give it to Stolarz. He’s been nothing short of incredible, and deserves the chance to lead this team to the promised land.
