On Sunday, hockey history was made when Alexander Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky‘s NHL career goal-scoring record, picking up his 895th career goal in the Washington Capitals’ 4–1 loss to the New York Islanders. And like when Lebron James broke the NBA scoring record in February of 2023, many are saying that Ovechkin’s record may never be beaten.
While that sentiment could be true, many also thought Gretzky’s record was untouchable. So, who’s to say that Ovechkin’s record won’t one day be beaten? Who’s to say it won’t even happen in the next decade or so? And who’s to say it won’t be broken by one of the NHL’s current top goal scorers, Toronto Maple Leafs star centre and captain, Auston Matthews?
While it may seem too soon to already look at the next possible record breaker, there is an argument to be made for Matthews one day sitting atop the NHL goal-scoring pyramid.
Matthews shines among the best
Matthews has been an elite goal scorer throughout his nine-year career. In three of those nine years, Matthews has taken home the Rocket Richard Trophy, awarded to the top goal scorer each season. And while his career-best 69-goal season in 2023–24 is only 18th on the all-time list, he is the only player from the 2000s and beyond to crack the top 20. Next is, you guessed it, Ovechkin at No. 25 with 65 goals in 2007–08.
If you look specifically at the time that Matthews has been in the league, his totals become even more impressive. From 2016 to today, Matthews has led the league with 398 goals in 624 games, then following him in second is Oilers star Leon Draisaitl with 378 goals, and in third is Ovechkin with 370. One important note, though, is that Matthews reached his total in 623 games—58 fewer than Draisaitl and 25 fewer than Ovechkin.
Not only has Matthews been the guy to beat in his nine NHL seasons, but he has put up more goals in that time than the man who just broke the existing career goal-scoring record.
Matthews vs. Ovechkin
To get a better idea of how Matthews stacks up against the ‘Great 8’, we should compare how Ovechkin did through the first 623 games of his career. As previously stated, Matthews has 398 goals through the 623 regular-season games he has played, which is actually seven goals more than the 391 that Ovechkin had during his first 623 games. Mind you, Ovechkin had 42 more points than Matthews in that span, but that doesn’t matter if we’re strictly talking about goal totals.
Looking further into Ovechkin’s 391 goals in 623 games, this also means, however, that Ovechkin has scored 504 goals in the 864 games since. It took Ovechkin roughly 11 seasons after he hit 623rd game to break Gretzky’s record.
Matthews still has 498 goals to go before he surpasses 895 career goals. If we assume that Matthews will play at least 10 more NHL seasons, he will likely need to score at least 49 goals per year for the remainder of his career in order to break the record. But if we’re being realistic, he likely won’t put up goal totals like that in his last seasons in the league, so if Matthews wants any hope of being the top-dog, he will have to have a couple of seasons where he replicates some semblance of his 69 goal total from 2023–24.
We also must keep in mind, through all of this, that Ovechkin’s goal total will continue to rise. While he has broken the record, he has not given any notice of retirement, so his goal total will continue to climb for at least the rest of the 2024–25 season and maybe even a couple more following.
Can he do it?
In this writer’s opinion, yes, Matthews could one day be the NHL goals leader, but a few things will have to line up to make it possible. The first is a return to form for the 27-year-old. Matthews has not looked entirely the same this season, and his goal totals have taken a hit as a result, with him having just 30 goals through 62 games. He has had injury issues this year, which haven’t helped, but that brings in the second problem.
Matthews has had a history of injuries throughout his career. In fact, he has only played 75 games or more in a season twice. Meanwhile, Ovechkin has only played fewer than 75 games five times in his career—this season will inevitably be the sixth. With that, one huge factor for Matthews will be his health and longevity. If he can have better luck on the injury front, a greater number of games played will surely boost his chances of breaking Ovechkin’s record. But if his injury history continues, it likely won’t be in the cards for Matthews.
So, like I said, while Matthews could very well be the NHL’s next top goal scorer, a few things will need to go right for the star Leaf. But if those things do go right, there’s no reason why he can’t break the unbreakable record that Ovechkin just set.
