The 2024–25 NHL regular season is nearing its final week, and luckily for Torontonians, the Maple Leafs have all but locked up the top spot in the Atlantic Division. This will allow them to more than likely avoid the defending champion Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1, and instead, face off against the Ottawa Senators in a playoff edition of the ‘Battle of Ontario’.
This matchup will be no easy task for a Leafs team that has lost all three games against the Senators this season, but if they are able to avoid a first-round upset, who would the Leafs matchup better against in Round 2, Tampa Bay or Florida?
While both teams are formidable, and despite the Panthers being three points below the Lightning in the standings, Tampa Bay would be a way better opponent for the Leafs to get.
Here’s why:
The records don’t lie
The Leafs have had a rough time against the Panthers this season. The team has 1–3–0 against Florida, and in their three losses, they have been outscored 13–4. Not exactly the best totals.
Meanwhile, against the Lightning, Toronto has had much better success, winning all four games against Tampa Bay this season. Out of those four games, only one required overtime, and overall, the Leafs outscored the Lightning 19–11. That’s a good deal better than their records against both Florida and Ottawa. And on top of this, their most recent game against the Lightning, their 4–3 overtime win on Monday night, was their first matchup with the team since Tampa Bay truly hit their stride in early February.
If we’re strictly going off the regular season records, the Leafs should undoubtedly favour a second-round matchup with Tampa Bay.
Playoff history
The Leafs’ first foray against the modern iteration of the Lightning came during the first round of the 2022 playoffs. This matchup did not go Toronto’s way as the team failed to capitalize on a 3–2 series lead and lost to Tampa Bay in seven games. But the following postseason, the Leafs managed to get their revenge, beating the Lightning in six games and advancing to their first second round since 2004.
In the second round, the Leafs would meet the Florida Panthers. Unlike Toronto’s two series against the Lightning, their matchup with Florida was not close, with the Leafs losing in five games.
Both teams are different than the ones the Leafs played two years ago. The Panthers have upgraded their core, and the Lightning, despite losing captain Steven Stamkos in free agency last summer, have added pieces to stay very competitive. But the Florida Panthers have also made it to the last two Stanley Cup finals and won the most recent, making them a seemingly more dangerous threat.
More saves, fewer problems
The Leafs’ defence has vastly improved this season, but if all else fails, the netminders will need to come in clutch during the playoffs. When you look at the performance of Toronto’s top goalie, Anthony Stolarz, against Florida and Tampa Bay this season, there has been a clear contrast when the netminder plays against one team or the other.
Stolarz is the goalie that many expect to get the No. 1 job come playoff time, and he has been solid against the Lightning. In his two games against Tampa Bay this season, Stolarz has averaged a .919 save percentage and a 2.45 goals-against average per dobbersports.com. In contrast, he had a .886 SV% and a 3.06 GAA in three games against the Panthers.
Joseph Woll, on the other hand, has performed well against Florida with a .944 SV% and a 2.06 GAA, but that was in his only game against the Panthers this season—a game that the Leafs still lost 3–1 on Tuesday. Against the Lightning, Woll has put up quality numbers in two games this season with a .915 SV% and a 3.01 GAA, and both of those games were wins for the Leafs.
When you combine the goalie performance along with the Leafs’ overall records against both teams, the Lightning become the clear pick for a second-round matchup, and with the Leafs’ somewhat recent success against the Lightning in 2023, it should only increase Toronto’s confidence.
Bear in mind, we aren’t saying the Lightning will be a guaranteed victory for the Leafs in the 2025 playoffs. But all aspects do point to Tampa Bay being a far more winnable matchup than with Florida.
