It was a frustrating night if you were a Toronto Maple Leafs fan. The Ottawa Senators forced Game 6 in Ottawa on Thursday night with a 4–0 win against the Maple Leafs. I outlined why it wasn’t time to panic after the 4–3 loss in overtime in Game 4. And it’s still not time to panic. After all, the Maple Leafs have two more kicks at the can to close out the series.
However, last night’s game was not what you wanted to see from a team that is supposed to go on a deep playoff run. With the 4–0 loss to the Ottawa Senators on home ice last night, and Linus Ullmark’s first career shutout in the playoffs, the Maple Leafs are now 1–13 in potential close-out games since 2018.
Let’s take a look at the main storylines coming out of the flat and uninspired performance from the Maple Leafs in last night’s game.
The Core Four trend in Games 5–7
The Core Four have shown up so far in the Battle of Ontario. However, it’s Games 5, 6, and 7, when you typically close out a playoff series, that have been the kryptonite of the Core Four. And last night was no exception. Last night was characterized by poor play, especially from the on-ice leadership. Auston Matthews is having an off year. No one is debating that. However, it’s the playoffs. In last night’s game, he did not look dangerous, finished with a minus -4, and made a bad pass that resulted in the back-breaker short-handed goal against.
As a superstar, as the captain, you need to find a way to produce and come in clutch once in a while. Matthews has not had a clutch playoff performance in his career. You’re paid to score goals, and two goals in the last 15 playoff games is simply not good enough. If Matthews cannot do it all himself, fine. He has three other superstars to help.
Last night, none of the Core Four scored. When looking at the data going back to 2019, this is nothing new.
Table 1. Table showing the distribution of points by the Maple Leafs’ Core four in games 5, 6, and 7 of playoff series from 2019 to present.
| Player | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | 16 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Auston Matthews | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| John Tavares | 13 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Mitch Marner | 16 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
As we can see, the Core Four has been abysmal as the playoff series progresses. Collectively, the Core Four scores an average of 1.15 goals per game from Game 5 onwards. While the play intensifies in the playoffs, especially as we get closer to Game 7, that is no excuse to produce so little. The Maple Leafs are fortunate to have not one, but four superstars on this roster. They are paid as such (more than 50% of the salary cap) to produce when the chips are down. Unfortunately, it seems that the Core Four has fought harder for their salaries, than they do in tight playoff games.
And now for something completely different… Why?
The team that played last night looked completely unrecognizable from the team that played the first four games of the series. The Maple Leafs did not play with the same intensity as they did in the first three games. Game 4, while not as strong a performance as the previous three games, was better than last night’s effort.
The Maple Leafs constantly looked for the stretch passes to spring a winger for a breakaway or odd-man rush. They looked for the perfect play in the offensive zone, instead of getting pucks to the net. The Maple Leafs lacked intensity in forechecking and man-to-man coverage. They played a dump-and-not-chase style of hockey…Sound familiar? If you’re having PTSD, I apologize, but it’s the type of Sheldon Keefe hockey that we have seen in the last eight years.
It felt like the Maple Leafs played Craig Berube-style hockey for the first three games of the series, then were overwhelmed by the pressure of trying to close out the series. Rather than stick to the game plan that saw them take a commanding 3–0 series lead, they panicked and reverted to a previous mindset of playing not to lose, instead of playing to win. For all the talk about not letting the previous performances interfere in this series, the Maple Leafs surely did not want to win as badly as the Senators. We’ve seen these performances all too much in the previous eight years.
Where do we go from here?
The Maple Leafs have gone 0–7 on the power play in the last two games. They have allowed shorthanded goals in back-to-back games, being one of two teams in the playoffs so far to do so. A even worse statistic is that the Maple Leafs are 0–30 on power play opportunities in potential series-clinching games. In their careers, Nylander, Matthews, and Marner have zero combined powerplay goals in Games 5 through 7. Both the Core Four and the power play need to figure it out, and fast.
The Maple Leafs need to return what made them first in the Atlantic Division this year: tight forechecking hockey, play with intensity, and when you dump the puck, you win that 50/50 board battle. The Maple Leafs need to get pucks and bodies to the net and not try to get highlight reel goals. They need to play how Berube has transformed them to play all season.
The Maple Leafs haven’t won a playoff series in five games or fewer since 1963. The Maple Leafs have two more chances to close out this series against the Senators and change the narrative around this team. The onus is on this roster, after eight years, going on nine years of playoff failures, to show why they are deserving of this dedicated fanbase. It is a must-win series. If the Maple Leafs don’t win this series, you have to seriously blow the team up. How could you not?
Let us know your thoughts on last night’s game below! Are you nervous?
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