The Toronto Maple Leafs lost Game 5 at home 4–0, and the Ottawa Senators forced a Game 6 on Thursday night. It gives fans flashbacks from past years and makes them afraid it’s happening again. As most of us know, this is far from the first time that the Leafs can’t win a close-out game, so let’s go a little in-depth into the Core Four’s past.
The beginning
2015 NHL Draft: Leafs pick the hometown boy Mitch Marner from the London Knights with the fourth overall pick. However, he is sent back to the Knights for one more year and leads London to the Memorial Cup championship.
In the 2015–16 season, the Leafs had a rough go, they went 29–42–11, which was good enough for 69 points, putting them at the bottom of the league. But there was a little bit of a silver lining.
Because of their last-place finish, they had the best odds to win the draft lottery with a 20 percent chance. The next best was the Edmonton Oilers with a 13.5 percent chance.
The league would look a lot different had the Oilers leapfrogged the Leafs. Imagine Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews on the same team. Nonetheless, the Leafs won the lottery and selected Matthews with the first overall pick, and it seemed that with Marner and Matthews on the come-up, a successful future was ahead.
In 2016–17, the Leafs made the playoffs with their young core of Marner, Matthews, and 2014 first-round pick William Nylander. However, it wasn’t like it is now, where the Leafs rely on these three to drive the bus. This team had Nazem Kadri with 32 goals and James van Riemsdyk with 29. However, Matthews did capture the spotlight from day one because he had 40 goals in his rookie season, winning the Calder Trophy awarded to the league’s best rookie.
The Leafs were tasked with playing a Cup contender in Round 1 in the Washington Capitals. They ended up losing in six games, but it’s okay because with Marner, Matthews, all being teenagers still, fans were optimistic about where things were headed in Toronto.
The demons take over
2017–18: The Leafs went 49–26–7 and finished third in the Atlantic Division, earning them a first-round matchup with an opponent they’d become all too familiar with in the coming years: The Boston Bruins. In 2013, the Leafs lost to the Bruins in heartbreaking fashion, choking away a 4–1 lead in the third period of Game 7, and losing 5–4 in overtime. But that was five years ago now, and we almost came back from 3–1 in that series anyway, they’ll be fine. The Leafs lost in seven games, once again losing Game 7 at TD Garden in Boston.
July 1, 2018: The Leafs sign top free agent John Tavares to a seven-year $11M per year contract. Surely, now that they’ve added another superstar forward to help the young kids develop, things will start going differently.
2018–19: The Leafs went 46–28–8, a very similar record to the year prior. However, the similarities don’t end there. Once again, the Leafs finished third in the Atlantic and played Boston in the first round. Once again, losing in seven games.
The 2019–20 season was cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and because the regular season was unfinished, the league implemented a best-of-five “Qualifying Round.” The Leafs were matched up with the Columbus Blue Jackets. In an inconsistent series, both teams blew 3–0 leads in Game 3 and Game 4. Just in time for the Leafs to get shutout in Game 5 to lose the series.
This is our chance
In 2021, because of the pandemic, people couldn’t cross the border into the United States, which resulted in there being an all-Canadian division where the Leafs dominated! Going 35–14–7 in a shortened 56-game season, they earned the number one seed in the North Division. Their first round matchup was with the four-seed Montreal Canadiens.
The Leafs record against the Habs was 7–2–1 in 2021, and many experts thought this was their best chance to win a Stanley Cup and win a playoff series since 2004. After losing Game 1 and Tavares suffering a horrific injury, the Leafs win three in a row to go up 3–1 in the series, going back to Toronto for Game 5.
Game 5, they lost in overtime. After coming back from a 3–0 deficit, they lost just seconds into the extra frame off a goal by Nick Suzuki. But it’s okay, they have to lose two more times. They also lost Game 6 in overtime, after blowing a 2–0 lead in the third period and dominating overtime, only giving up one shot on goal, which was the game winner by Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
Game 7 was the Carey Price show, as the Leafs would outshoot the Canadiens 31 to 22 but lost 3–1. The Canadiens went on to make the Stanley Cup Final but lost in five games to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
2021–22, everything was back to normal, an 82-game season where the Leafs went 54–21–7. The core four carried the load, being the top four in points, and Matthews finished with 60 goals. As a team, they were second in the NHL in total goals, earning themselves a first-round series with the two-time defending champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Where AGAIN they’d lose in seven games.
At this point, fans are beginning to think they’re turning into what the Boston Red Sox used to be, where they’d have a great regular season but then throw it all away in the playoffs.
Running out of time
In 2018, the Leafs signed Tavares for seven years. We’re now entering year five of that contract, and many fans thought he was the guy to put the Leafs over the top and break the curse. However, it was Tavares who was the hero in Game 6 of Round 1 in 2023, against Tampa Bay in overtime, to give the Leafs their first series win since 2004 and their first with the new core.
This team seemed to be a team of destiny, and fans believed that this was finally going to be the year. However, their nemesis in Boston had an unbelievable 65–12–5 record, breaking the league record for wins and points, finishing with 135 and winning the Presidents’ Trophy. However, they lost in seven games to the Florida Panthers in Round One after blowing a 3–1 series lead. The Leafs lost to Florida in Round 2 in five games, it seemed like a missed opportunity given this group’s playoff reputation.
In 2023–24, Matthews finished with 69 goals. Matthews, Marner and Nylander were all above a point per game, and they made the playoffs and play the old buddies in Boston in the first round. William Nylander was injured to start the playoffs, and nobody could figure out why. But down 3–2 in the series, Nylander steps up with two goals in a 2–0 win to force Game 7 at TD Garden.
The Leafs lost Game 7 in Overtime 2–1 off a goal by David Pastrnak, once again losing the infamous Game 7 in Boston.
The present
This year is different under the new head coach, Craig Berube. The Leafs have the best team they’ve had since 2021, winning the Atlantic Division and going up 3–0 in the Battle of Ontario. Even just a couple weeks ago, on TSN’s Overdrive, the panel was arguing over who would be the Game 1 starter, Anthony Stolarz or Joseph Woll. And now on the same show, they’re saying Stolarz might be the best Leafs signing ever.
Even though the boys lost the last two, I don’t think there’s a reason to panic. There are worse spots to be in than up 3–2. Even though the Leafs are 1–13 in potential close-out games (excluding 2020 because technically the qualifying round doesn’t count as playoffs).
All year, Leafs fans have said this is the year, and losing two games in the playoffs isn’t a big deal. As soon as the team faces a little bit of adversity, fans completely change their viewpoint. Nonetheless, Thursday is a huge game, and once again, the mood of the fans will be dictated by the outcome.
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