The Brendan Shanahan era brought with it many taglines. The Leafs would ultimately prove many of them on the ice, though there were highs and lows along the way. One of the most pervasive phrases was “the core four”. With Shanahan gone and potential UFAs in Mitch Marner and John Tavares without contracts, the Leafs are forced to redefine their core one way or another.
All of a sudden, a power vacuum emerges, with pressure building as the true offseason schedule looms. The Leafs, notably GM Brad Treliving and coach Craig Berube, consistently fought for ground in the narrative of the core four, instead pointing to the team or program as a whole. Just the same, there will be a new pecking order on the team itself, with high-leverage roles potentially up for grabs. Let’s take a look at what the Leafs’ core might be defined as heading into next season.
As it stands
Stars: Matthews, Nylander
A-listers: Knies, Tanev, Stolarz
Structure: McCabe, Woll, Rielly, Carlo, Ekman-Larsson, Domi, McMann, Benoit, Laughton, Jarnkrok
While some of these players might yet be traded, the Leafs head into this offseason with this as their foundation. With only two offensive stars, this group is fairly opposite from the conventions of the Shanahan era. There is a priority on defence and goaltending, as well as a strong veteran lean within the group. There might be a temptation to worry about the age of this group, but without a first-round pick for each of the next three seasons, there is not much choice but to live in the moment.
Naturally, Matthew Knies is a reason to hope for upside. It is likely that Knies will not reach the scoring levels of Austin Matthews or William Nylander, but Knies brings a lot of elements that complement them. Berube clearly places an importance on size up front, and Knies’ net front abilities are sorely lacking elsewhere in the roster.
In fact, one might suggest that the Leafs have failed in part because of their inability to retain complementary forwards. Adding Nazem Kadri and Zach Hyman, both currently on very reasonable contracts, would still be a blessing for the Leafs. Adding more players to this tier will be quite important, as high-end stars are rarely available.
Improvements from the inside
It is worth mentioning that the Leafs might have some internal development available. Joseph Woll is still forging his path, and Simon Benoit seems to keep taking steps. The Leafs do have some interesting prospects in the system, but Easton Cowan might be the one closest to breaking through this upcoming season. Projecting him into the opening night lineup might be too steep an expectation, but stranger things routinely happen.
Perhaps the team can get more from Max Domi as a winger. Maybe Morgan Rielly can bounce back with a better season. Still, neither is truly safe from being replaced if the Leafs feel they can acquire and upgrade.
Somehow, without much draft capital, without many trade assets, and without high-end prospects, the Leafs will need to add some quality talent. Free agency will be beneficial here, as the Leafs will have some cap space to work with. This cap space might also be used on the trade market, betting on players that might be moved cheaply for other teams’ cap purposes.
The Leafs simply will not be able to afford the acquisition cost of the hottest names on the trade market, say Elias Pettersson, Marco Rossi, or even Bowen Byram or K’Andre Miller. Instead, the Leafs will have to be bold in hoping a change of scenery might spark a higher level of play from a player.
Centres
Brayden Schenn, Nazem Kadri, William Karlsson, Phillip Danault, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau might be too valuable for the Leafs to acquire. Still, their talents would help. Instead, riskier options like Mika Zibanejad, Sean Couturier, Alexander Wennberg, and Andrew Copp might be worth considering. Some depth options like Dakota Joshua, Jason Dickinson, and Ryan Hartman might be worth considering, but are hardly as flashy.
Of course, Sam Bennett will be the prize of the free agent centre market, and John Tavares is expected to return. The Leafs need at least one centre who can push Tavares for minutes, if not more, while bringing a different skill set to the ice. Mikael Granlund or Matt Duchene might be worth considering. Jonathan Toews is a wild-card option.
Big wingers
With former president Brendan Shanahan gone, it seems that coach Craig Berube might have a bigger voice. At the very least, Treliving and Berube seem to be on the same page. As such, it should be expected that the Leafs try to keep adding size to their forward group. Especially if Max Pacioretty does not return, the Leafs will be assertive in addressing this area. While size is one thing, how a player uses their body is a factor here as well.
Anders Lee, Ivan Barbashev, Lawson Crouse, Chris Kreider, Trevor Moore, Blake Coleman, Bryan Rust, Mason Marchment, Ross Colton, and Jordan Greenway all might be in for a change of scenery for cap reasons. Again, the New York Rangers shaking things up is a big thing to watch out for, as Kreider presents a lot of upside. His contract is much shorter than Zibanejad’s, which might be appealing. Still, Kreider is coming off a weak season, but this risk is part of the cost equation. He also will probably end up being a Duck.
Scoring wingers
If Marner leaves, there could be a need to add more scoring talent up front. The Leafs still have William Nylander, Max Domi, and potentially Nick Robertson, who provide more offensive styles of play. Top prospect Easton Cowan also offers some potential upside.
On the trade market, it is extremely unlikely that the Leafs can afford Martin Necas or Jared McCann, though Jonathan Marchessault or Mattias Maccelli might be cast aside by their current teams. It is less dire for the Leafs to add such players, as chances are they will look to become more physical. The unlimited scoring potential of Patrik Laine has lost some lustre, for example, seems less appealing than a more complete player like Blake Coleman.
As such, it might be hard to envision the Leafs getting too invested in free agents of this ilk. Brad Marchand provides a lot more than just scoring, whereas Jeff Skinner has gotten lost in the shuffle on the Edmonton Oilers. The Leafs might be able to find a value to take a swing on, a less heralded player on a smaller commitment. Centres and big wingers are much bigger needs for the Leafs, and so thoughts of adding pure scoring wingers should be tempered.
As such, spending big in free agency should be muted as well. Anthony Mantha is an example of a player that might come at a value, coming off of a depressed market and an early-season ending injury. Brock Boeser is unlikely, as he will likely command a bigger salary. Nikolaj Ehlers would likely be too costly as well, though he does bring some intensity.
Puck moving RD
Right-shot defencemen remain scarce, and so are the options at this position. Still, balancing and improving the defence can likely only come from adding a puck-moving right shot. This might entail trading away Rielly, allowing Oliver Ekman-Larsson to play on his strong side more regularly. The Leafs’ top power play spot might be open if Marner leaves.
The type of player that fits this description is rare, but there are options worth considering. Erik Karlsson remains in trade rumours, and does not have a lot of term remaining on his deal. The Leafs might not be able to afford his cap hit, though perhaps some salary retention could be involved. Still, without many trade assets, the market for his services would have to be quite depressed league-wide.
There would at least be a chance that Karlsson elevates this blueline, and that the Pittsburgh Penguins are motivated to move off of him. As free agents, Aaron Ekblad and Brent Burns might draw some attention as well.
The path is much less clear for some lower-case options like Justin Faulk on the trade market, or Henri Jokiharju as a free agent. These seem less likely given that they are not necessarily upgrades over Rielly. Perhaps a more well-rounded player like UFA Dante Fabbro might be interesting, though other teams are likely to have him as a bigger priority.
Big picture
If the Leafs are able to retain Tavares and Pacioretty, perhaps even shifting Tavares to the wing, adding two centre options seems a great way to improve the team. Adding a potential shutdown centre would be huge, though in truth, it almost has to be someone with enough quality that putting Nylander on their wing is not a waste of time.
More importantly, adding to the core is vital to improving the team. A big splash like Bennett and Marchand would be incredible, but perhaps William Karlsson and Jean-Gabriel Pageau would be enough to help change the DNA that the Leafs long for.
If Marner leaves in free agency, the Leafs will have the opportunity to reestablish their identity. The cards are somewhat stacked against the Leafs, the path to improvement is narrow, but a path still exists. More than anything, the Leafs will need to be adept in their professional scouting. There might only be room for two or three significant additions, and none will be without risk.
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