JOHN TAVARES IS (still) A LEAF!!!!!
The former captain, future Legends Row member, re-signed in Toronto for the next four years with an average annual value of $4.38M. This is a player who easily could have gotten $7-8M in free agency, who decided to take a team-friendly deal to stay in Toronto. In fact, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic had in his model that Tavares’ value, ignoring the free agency bump, was around $8.3M.
In this piece, we’re going to look at the impact of the Tavares contract and what it means for the future of the Leafs. But also, I’m going to spend some time just reflecting on what this news means for Leafs fans.
Hometown discount
By basically every single metric, this was an excellent contract and a tidy piece of business for Brad Treliving. Some analysts have commented that in a completely ideal world, it would be three years instead of four, as Tavares will be 38 by the end of the deal. However, I would also remind folks that many people predicted a fairly heavy drop-off towards the tail end of his last deal, which certainly failed to materialize. Whether it’s JT’s notoriously rigorous training regimen, the kombucha on tap in his house, or (most likely) the magical amulet, something seems to be keeping Tavares in quite good health. Keep it up, please.
The AAV of the contract is chef’s kiss perfect. It’s front-loaded with $4.5M and $4M in signing bonuses in the first two years, respectively. Additionally, there’s $2M of deferred money, payable five years after the end of the deal. This reduced the AAV from $4.5M to $4.38M. Notably, this type of deal will be prohibited under the newly agreed-upon CBA, which kicks in in September of 2026.
Finally, JT has a full no-move clause in the first two years of the deal, then a five-team trade list in years three and four.
Tavares still fits with the Leafs
From a hockey perspective, this contract is almost perfect. Such a huge discount gives massive flexibility to Leafs management. And if Treliving, for example, manages to move David Kämpf and Calle Järnkrok, that more than covers the JT deal. Kämpf makes $2.4M against the cap, and Järnkrok makes $2.1M.
JT can certainly still play at an elite level. He scored 38 goals last year for god’s sake!! He’s a bona fide top-six forward who can still probably play second-line centre. But he might want to think about transitioning either to a very, very solid 3rd-line centre, or more likely, a winger.
From a fan’s perspective, I don’t think this news could have come at a better time. I believe a recurring theme throughout the last era of the Leafs, the “Core Four” era, has been a disconnect between management, fans, and individual players. It has seemed that the stars of the Leafs have been primarily concerned with securing their own contracts, with the good of the team coming secondary.
The most obvious examples of this are William Nylander and, especially, Mitch Marner. Between the Willy holdout and basically every single thing that’s happened with Marner, fans have become used to challenging negotiations and contract numbers that make you tug at your collar. Enter John Tavares.
Leading by example
When he signed in Toronto, it felt like a seismic shift. For the first time in my life, a superstar actually wanted to come to my city and make the active choice to do so. Then we went through the negotiations for the stars, and it was an immediate return to the status quo. Team-friendly deals just seemed anathema to Toronto; it felt like we would never see a David Pastrňák-like contract in the 6ix.
John Tavares just erased that feeling.
Hopefully, this can be a watershed moment for this team. Hopefully, JT can stop the nickel-and-diming and help bring valuable people to Toronto at reasonable costs. And even if that doesn’t happen, at least JT gave the team a bit more wiggle room. Build the statue.
For those who follow my writing closely, a cohort that I believe is precisely zero people, you will know that I am in search of a new Leafs jersey. I’ve had Marner’s 16 on the back of mine since his ELC, and I don’t think it’s ever going to see the light of day again. After this week, I think 91 is going to look pretty damn good between my shoulder blades going forward.
