The Toronto Maple Leafs have had an eventful offseason. The big news is obviously the departure of Mitch Marner to Vegas, but they have also signed and traded for a few other pieces. Overall, at this point in the offseason, Marner, Ryan Reaves, and Pontus Holmberg are gone. Still unsigned are Max Pacioretty and Nicholas Robertson, with the latter going to arbitration.
In terms of new additions, the Leafs have brought in Dakota Joshua, Henry Thrun, Nicolas Roy, and Matias Maccelli.
None of the above players are supposed to replace Mitch Marner, and there really isn’t a player available who can. What those players are responsible for, however, is adding depth and bolstering the bottom-six of the Leafs forward corps, something that has been severely lacking in previous years.
We thought we’d take a snapshot look at the current state of the Leafs roster, with the understanding that it’s currently July and more changes are likely to happen. Plus, I’m kind of running out of things to write about, but don’t tell my editor.
Are they better?
Are the Leafs a better team than they were last year? Probably not, but also maybe yes?
In a nutshell, on paper, the Leafs are certainly worse. While Marner did have a career year last season, scoring over 100 points, it’s hard to overstate the impact he has on the game. He is a bona fide superstar, one of the best playmakers in the league, and a player who is a true gamebreaker.
I think the question at the top of this piece is actually incorrect. I don’t think we should be asking if the Leafs are “better” than last year. For one, it’s hard to define “better”. Are we talking about regular season success? Are we talking about points percentage or Corsi? What about team culture?
Rather, I think we should be answering the following question: Can the Leafs win with this team, and are they more likely to than they were?
Can they win?
The correct answer to that question is “it remains to be seen.” However, I posit that the Leafs were incapable of winning with their previous rosters, and as such, any change definitionally means an increase in probability.
I have written about this extensively, but the Leafs, with Marner in the lineup, demonstrably proved their inability to deliver any amount of meaningful postseason success. They had ample chances; their team got better in the regular season year over year. They won the division last year! And still, they failed.
Are they more likely to win next season than they were this season? If you ask the model makers and stats folks, they’ll probably say no. I say that it is impossible that they won last year, for the simple reason that they didn’t. I also say that they have a chance to win next year, and thus, they are more likely to.
Can the Leafs win with this current roster? I don’t see a reason why they can’t.
What makes them a winner
The Leafs bottom-six is inarguably stronger with the new additions that Treliving has brought in. The fourth line saw the departure of Ryan Reaves to go try and fulfill his dream of winning a Stanley Cup (don’t tell him he’s going to San Jose). Treliving mentioned the possibility of Laughton at 4C and the Leafs could move last season’s third line, which saw some success, to the fourth. There are a number of qualified players competing for a few spots in the lineup, a good problem to have.
The third line has also seen an upgrade. Nicolas Roy is projected to be the 3C, and he’s had success in that role. They also have plenty of winger options between Dakota Joshua, Nicholas Robertson, Bobby McMann, Max Domi, and Matias Maccelli. It’s likely that Berube will juggle the bottom-six around until he finds a combination he’s a fan of, but he’s definitely not hurting for choices.
The Leafs, hilariously, are now somewhat short on the top end. William Nylander proved he’s a superstar player, as well as being someone who I think was built to play in Toronto. John Tavares seems to have conquered aging, and while we don’t expect him to perform to the same level as last season, we didn’t really expect it then either. In unrelated news, the 6ix On Ice team is expecting a shipment of amulets to arrive soon. Matthew Knies is blossoming into a player the Leafs sorely needed, providing a physical forechecker with a netfront presence.
Return to form
Auston Matthews had a very off year last season. During locker cleanout, he talked about the injury he experienced in training camp that he said affected all aspects of his game. He also promised to return at 100% for next season, so we expect a return to form and his outlandish production. Having AM34 back to his old game-breaking ways would go a long way to filling the void left by Marner.
The defence has mostly stayed the same, with the addition of Henry Thrun providing some depth. Defence was less of a concern than in previous years, but one element of caution was Morgan Rielly’s lack of production. The Leafs really need him to produce as the offensive defenceman that he once was, especially on the power play, given the lack of power play QB now.
Much is still up in the air, and more moves are expected to happen. The Leafs currently have just shy of $3M in cap space remaining with one glaring hole. There is still plenty of time until the season starts (please, please, just let hockey return already), and Brad Treliving isn’t one to sit on his heels.
Are the Leafs better than they were last season? Time will tell.
Nobody took Reaves when he was on waivers. The main deal in that trade was probably to save the Leafs the rest of Reaves cap hit that couldn’t be buried. Thrun is 1 mil and can be buried entirely. I don’t know how serious the Leafs are about Thrun but I guess they’ll take a look at camp. The idea is to better balance the team and distribute the production among a few players who hopefully don’t disappear in important games like Marner. Also, players with more toughness, who go to the net, screen the goalie, deflect pucks, get rebounds, battle, check more and better, none of which Marner did. Matthews has been shown to produce well with or without Marner. Marner was not a game breaker in important games. The Leafs were not good at winning important games. Their core 4 would disappear and the rest of the players, on average, were sub-standard because of all the core 4 cap. The Leafs are more likely to win important game now. Matthews, Tavares and Roy are all definitely better centers than Laughton. He’s a (good) 4th! Lorentz is a 4th liner. McMann is 29, faded away after the deadline and got just 3 assists in 13 playoff games. They should not risk that happening again. He, Robertson and Kampf need to go. Even if Jarnkrok gets back to form this year, his history shows 11 years of poor playoff production. He needs to go too. The Leafs need all the players they can get who raise their game when it’s important. Know who did? Domi and Pacioretty! Matthews and Marner had 1 point each in the last 4 playoff games. Nylander and Tavares had none. The core 4 all disappeared. One of them can’t disappear this year for the first time in 9 years because he’s gone! I believe Tavares prepared himself better in the off-season for his last contract year, especially because it looked so in his demeaner, quickness, movement and everything. The question is whether he will continue doing that. The Leafs need another power forward for line 2. Maybe there’s a possibility of Joshua becoming one. Sure, Rielly usually does better but he was a .5 in the regular season without much PP time and .54 in the playoffs. Just a temporary glitch and Berube’s much different game may have contributed. He’s only 31, not 35, he’ll be back. Hopefully they still get a real top 6 then they will be in great shape!
ggggg