The Toronto Maple Leafs won’t look terribly different next year, but expectations may be down. Even though forward depth has improved, the loss of Mitch Marner will make life harder for everyone.
That being said, they won the Atlantic Division last year and could easily do it again in 2025–26. Other than the Florida Panthers, every other contender in the Eastern Conference seems to have gotten worse.
The Leafs have a good-to-great roster with more depth than we’ve seen in years. Still, significant issues surround the lineup and coaching staff. So let’s discuss Toronto’s three biggest question marks heading into next year.
The power play
Craig Berube gave up on Morgan Rielly on the power play last year, and for good reason. The man advantage was dreadful until they switched to five forwards— Marner, Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, John Tavares, and William Nylander.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson didn’t work as the quarterback either, so the five forward group got their shot and ran with it.
But Marner is gone, and there’s no obvious choice to replace him as QB on PP1.
The power play has been a disaster in the postseason for years. No matter how good they are in the regular season, they turn ice-cold as soon as the games start to matter. Marner is a huge part of this, obviously, as he becomes obsolete in the playoffs.
One guy who actually turns it up in the playoffs is Rielly, but he was horrid on the first unit last year and hasn’t been good on the man advantage for a long time. Is it worth giving him yet another shot, or is there a forward who can take Marner’s spot on the five-forward unit?
One guy who could is Matias Maccelli. He’s a bit of a mini-Marner who uses elite vision to make flashy passes in the offensive zone. He definitely doesn’t have QB experience, but barely any forwards do. It would be worth a shot to give him a chance on top of PP1.
If Nylander takes the point, then maybe Nick Robertson could play on a flank. We all know the coach and front office don’t love him, but his one timer is elite, and he would no doubt pot a few power play goals if given the chance.
Despite the seemingly elite personnel, the power play has been a problem for a while. With the departure of one of its top players, the Leafs are in for a challenge. But maybe the absence of Marner will help. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Is Matthews healthy?
Auston Matthews is the best goal scorer in the world. Or he was until last year, at least.
A healthy Matthews literally solves 90% of the Leafs problems from 2024–25. They became one of the top defensive teams in the league and got great goaltending, but had a bit of trouble scoring. That’s going to happen when your top player goes from 69 goals to 33.
With Marner gone, Matthews will need to legitimately carry the first line and do it well. He can’t take games off, and he can’t be nursing injuries all year. His job is to lead the league in goals and help the team produce.
Yeah, his defence was elite last year. But a drop of 36 tucks is a ton. He needs to go back to being a 50-goal guarantee, and he needs to prove he can do it without Marner. He’ll be lined up beside Knies and either Domi or Maccelli (probably) and will need to carry the load offensively.
Hopefully, Toronto has a capable third line that can take on opponents’ top lines so Matthews can feast on some easier matchups. If Berube tries to put Matthews against everyone’s best players, he won’t be able to do what he needs to. That was the coaching staff’s biggest miscalculation last year, and they need to adjust.
Too many guys
Admittedly, this is a nice problem to have, but Toronto truly has too many forwards. Every lineup you could possibly construct has guys like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Robertson, or Steven Lorentz on the outside looking in.
The Leafs need to test a ton of line combinations early, decide who fits, and move on from who doesn’t. As of right now, the obvious choices to be shipped out are Kampf and Jarnkrok, but Robertson could be this year’s Timothy Liljegren if he doesn’t come out of the gates hot.
Some of Toronto’s forwards have real value—plenty of teams could use Jarnkrok or Kampf on their fourth lines—but both earn significant cash. Maybe Robertson would net you the best return, but do you really want to give up on him now?
The additions of Maccelli, Nic Roy, and Dakota Joshua are no doubt fantastic. They will help the team win and provide depth like we haven’t seen in years. But as they push guys down, usable forwards are going to be sitting every night.
The Leafs may as well get what they can for one or two of their fourth liners to help restock their asset cabinets. Hopefully, they make the right choices.
I don’t see how the Leafs can be assumed to not be much different next year when Holmberg will be gone and also quite possibly Kampf, Robertson and Jarnkrok while Joshua, Maccelli, Roy (a real 3rd center!) will be playing. Laughton, a usual 3rd center will be playing 4th center very effectively. There will also likely be a new top 6 RW with different qualities than MM such that line 1 and 2 don’t disappear in important games! That RW should be tougher and be able to screen, deflect, rebound, cause havoc in front of the goal and win battles, all that Marner couldn’t do.
old Leaf fan here. While both Kampf and Jarnkrok both earn “significant cash” in your words, as viable bottom 6 forwards, their salary structure is designed to make them easily tradeable.
Kampf earns $2.4M per for the next two seasons and is a legit 4th line center who can kill penalties, check and score the occasional playoff goal (which makes you wonder about the rush to trade him), this season he is only owed $1,075,000 as the rest of his salary ($1,325,000) was paid July 1 by the Leafs.
So for this year, Kampf takes up $2.4M in cap room but his new team only needs to pay 43% of his salary. He’s a heavily discounted for any team owner/management that has an internal budget that’s lower than the cap.
Jarnkrok is even more of a “bargain” by this measure. His one-year $2.1M contract carries just $775K owed for the coming season. So you get him for 37% of his full salary which is the league min salary. Not bad for a double-digit scoring, Swiss army knife-type forward when healthy.
The teams that don’t spend to the cap (Buffalo, SJS, Anaheim, CBJ), get a heavily discounted player who they can also flip at the trade deadline for assets.
This is a long way of saying that neither is owed much real cash, both should be easy to trade and that there’s a legitimate market for them this fall and in April.
Almost every team almost always uses at least one defenseman on the PP! Marner was a bit of an exception and only because Rielly was so bad last year. Hopefully, he has put more effort into the off-season in order to do better this year. Maccelli is much poorer than Marner defensively so is not suited for that position. OEL should probably be given some extended time from the start of the season to get it together and Rielly may be back there too. It would be better to give ANY defenseman a shot before Maccelli 😉 Nylander is notorious for giving up the puck while being last man back. Also, he is weak defensively so not suitable. Let’s be clear that Matthews played 14 less games last year than the year before. After the playoffs, he declared that he would be 100% this season. A line of Knies – Matthews – Maccelli is going to continue to disappear in important games as the only change is Maccelli instead of Marner. One of Myers or Thrun is likely to be picked up on waivers if one isn’t traded before. It would seem 3 forwards need to go.