While some uncertainty around Joseph Woll and the return of James Reimer on a tryout is its own story, the biggest concern for the Leafs headed into the season is said to be the offence. Losing a star player is one thing; a return to form for Auston Matthews is another. Can a 100-point player truly be replaced?
The optimistic might say yes, cap space might be reallocated, depth acquired. With Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua, and Nicolas Roy, the Leafs might have acquired a third line, if not three top-nine forwards to work with. Perhaps this would be enough to make up for the loss of star power, but the Leafs are looking to be even better than last season.
Laughton and his fourth line
Instead, it might be Scott Laughton centring the fourth line that makes a huge difference for the Leafs. After scoring just six points across his 33 combined regular season and playoff games as a Leafs last season, many might have already written him off in terms of making a huge impact. Since the 2019–20 season, Laughton has been a lot closer to about half a point per game.
If he can replicate that career norm, the Leafs could have an elite top twelve forward group. At full health, there might be a handful of teams with more impressive top-six or top-nine groups, but if Laughton can lead a fourth line that can legitimately push the third line for icetime, it will be a huge advantage for the Leafs.
This is especially true since Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, William Nylander, Nicolas Roy, and Bobby McMann are expected to have regular roles on both special teams. Clearly, coach Craig Berube will put an emphasis on both special teams. If the Leafs plan to use Matthews and company in key roles in all situations, they will need a balanced forward group to help shoulder some even-strength minutes.
A new feeling
In turn, a third and fourth line each having their own identities will make the Leafs more dangerous and more consistent. Especially in a condensed schedule, this will be important. Many of the Leafs bottom-six, Roy, Joshua, and Laughton included, should not be counted on for more than 10–15 goals. Still, if multiple members of the bottom-six can reach 10 goals and play the direct and defensively sound style that Berube demands, the Leafs will have a fearsome group as a whole.
In the best-case scenario, Laughton reaching his career norms transforms the Leafs’ forward group into one that is relentless, physical, and intense. The Leafs will look to minimize the amount that they beat themselves, focusing on tight checking and a sound penalty kill, as well as capitalizing on their opportunities.
Lorentz career highs?
As the Leafs use consistent duos in their forward group, Steven Lorentz has become an equally important part of the equation on the fourth line. While not quite as skilled or heralded as Laughton, Joshua, or Roy, there is a lot to like about his game.
An interesting contrast might be to Bobby McMann, as Lorentz is big and can skate. McMann clearly has more of a scoring touch, but Lorentz is bringing some strengths of his own. Berube seems to push McMann to have more consistency, perhaps hoping tough love will stoke some fire, while Lorentz seems to fully embrace the desperation and detail.
Through the years of playoff appearances, Leafs fans have been forced to mull over what makes a good bottom-six. With limited icetime, there are often few chances to be involved with the game. It is likely that Lorentz is among Berube’s favourites, embodying the traits he wants from his team.
With his physical talents and his emotional buy-in, there might be some room for unconventionally late improvement from Lorentz. Reaching 20 or 25 points for the first time might be possible during his current contract. At the very least, it should be difficult for anyone to unseat him, despite his being lower in the lineup.
Skill on every line
Having all of one’s penalty killers in the regular lineup is a blessing that allows for some experimentation. The Leafs will not be forced to dress penalty killers like Calle Jarnkrok or David Kampf, nor enforcers like Michael Pezzetta. Instead, those players will have an equal shot at a bottom spot as some of the younger and more skilled options.
Easton Cowan is top of mind, helping Laughton and Lorentz to a huge night against the Montreal Canadiens this preseason. Of course, being attached to “identity players” would be great for his development. Having spent time with Roy and Joshua as well, Cowan, being the primary puck handler on a checking line, might be a great fit.
Like Cowan, Nick Robertson has an edge despite his offensive talent. Presumably, one of Max Domi or Matias Maccelli might find themselves on a line with Roy and Joshua as well. Having one of Robertson or Cowan alongside might help unlock Laughton offensively. At his best, Jarnkrok would be a strong option as well, albeit not as offensively talented.
Whether or not Cowan makes the team out of camp, he is in range of becoming a real option to help this Leafs lineup. Despite trading away so many picks and prospects over the Matthews era, it is crucial that the Leafs continue to find players who can become core pieces. Matthew Knies has arrived, and getting Cowan to follow along would be huge for the future.
Endgame
This likely will not be the most explosive Leafs team of the Matthews era, but it looks to be the most complete. The Leafs will try to rely on defence as their focus, as Berube will often praise regular season losses where his team checked well. If Matthews is near his Selke Trophy level of play, the depth and definition of the line centred by Roy and Laughton make the team incredibly stout up front.
The Leafs have some wild-card options at their disposal. Infusing some skill and youth can make the Leafs dangerous lines one through four. The team will need all these forwards and more to make it through to their ultimate goal. Everything must be earned, but the Leafs have instilled a lot of confidence with their path so far.
