The start of the season has been frustrating for the Toronto Maple Leafs. This much was evident from coach Craig Berube’s postgame interview after a loss to the New Jersey Devils. Wins count the same in October as they do in March, but the small sample size can often lead to overreactions.
Though the core four is no more, the Leafs still carry a lot of baggage. If not in the room, then across the fanbase, there is a looming spectre of doubt. As usual, the comments about Mitch Marner are plentiful, the Leafs losing a key player for pennies on the dollar. All eyes are on the Leafs to fail, now stripped of their primary identity.
Each season, teams must forge an identity through the attrition of the regular season schedule, even prior to discussing personnel changes. Can the Leafs find a way to become stronger? Or is the team staring down an age-related decline? Let’s take a look at what lies between the two.
Old school
After a foray into modernism under Kyle Dubas, the Leafs entrusted the program to Brad Treliving, somewhat of a stylistic opposite. Most every GM will be fired, or at least will vacate their role. Treliving joined the Leafs coming off a questionable end with the Calgary Flames. Now near the bottom of the league, Treliving’s Flames did not accomplish much in the playoffs, and several of his decisions helped pave the way to the dysfunction.
After winning the Pacific Division, the Flames fell apart. Johnny Gaudreau, a star playmaking winger, left in free agency. The team got older, and draft picks were traded away aggressively. The team sank into a relative irrelevance, which they occupy to this day.
The Leafs are not the Flames, but there are some symmetries that are unsettling for Leaf fans. The Leafs have gotten bigger and older under Treliving, which could have a tipping point for the worst. Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and John Tavares are all key players in their mid-30s. A fall off for any of these three greatly impacts the Leafs.
Without much draft capital and with several key prospects traded away, the Leafs will have to be creative to find contributors. Any progress from within will be vital, as trades and free agency can only supplement so much. The Leafs have been living for the moment for nearly a decade, and perhaps the team is better at the moment, but the long-term outlook is not. The lack of hope means a tough result this season could be dire.
Special teams problems
Many have started to notice that the Leafs are lacking an identity. The days of high-flying offence appear to be over, as personnel would dictate, though the team has lacked toughness and physicality as well. At some point, the team will need to galvanize and come together, and there is still a lot of season remaining for the group to gel.
One thing that does stand out is the Leafs poor performance on special teams. The penalty kill is around the middle of the league in efficiency, but the Leafs are giving up a lot of good chances. The power play, meanwhile, has failed to get anything going. If the Leafs want to rely on a defensive identity, these areas are crucial to success. The team is not dominant at even strength, so losing the special teams battles compounds.
Matthews issues
As captain and star centre, Auston Matthews needs to be a dominant player for the Leafs to have a chance. While he is leading the team in goals and has a lot of blocked shots, Matthews has to be better than he has been. Last season was marred by injuries, and many were expecting a healthy Matthews to step up this season.
Instead, Matthews’ line has consistently been outplayed. A down season will cast a lot of scrutiny on him, especially given that longtime linemate Mitch Marner is gone. At his best, Matthews is a contender for the Rocket Richard, Selke, and Hart Trophies. Quite frankly, the Leafs are constructed so that he needs to play at this level for the team to succeed.
Naturally, the hope is that Matthews will return to top form as soon as possible, but perhaps some doubts might start to creep in if he does not. Combined with the team’s lack of futures, a decline for Matthews is particularly worrisome. At this moment, it is a question of who will play on Matthews’ line, who can help jumpstart him. The Leafs need Matthews to be an answer, not a question, in this regard.
A return to form for Matthews could help a number of factors. Offence in general, but also the power play would be much better off with a nice streak for Matthews. The Leafs control of play might be greatly improved as well. Whatever the issue is, the fate of the Leafs depends on figuring this out.
Tanev injury
Although it has been an uninspiring start for the Leafs, there is reason to believe that a quick turnaround is possible. A big game from Matthews, a collective identity through a heated skirmish and this team could feel completely different. That said, the Leafs will be tasked with finding an answer without Chris Tanev.
Right-shot defencemen, particularly those who can be trusted to play against top competition, are rare. Tanev boasts an impressive profile as a rough-and-tumble shutdown defender who can also pass well enough to transition the puck up ice. The Leafs do not have a one-to-one replacement, but Philippe Myers is a capable option to backfill. With impressive size and skating, if Myers can apply his skills well, he can absolutely find a regular spot on a strong blueline.
Despite a relatively quiet Leafs tenure, Myers has been solid in his appearances. If Tanev or Carlo, who both have injury histories, miss any time, his importance will be underscored. A regular spot might be difficult for him to take hold of, though he would allow Ekman-Larsson to play his strong side if he beats out Simon Benoit, for example. In any case, Myers is a great luxury on an affordable contract.
Bottom line
Leaf fans might find themselves staring into the abyss. The team’s lack of playoff success has been frustrating, but all the present factors paint a much darker picture. If the Leafs had either of their next two first-round picks, a down season might be more palatable, offering a new hope. Instead, there is very little the Leafs can gain from poor regular seasons.
The pressure will mount, especially as some younger teams begin to rise in the Atlantic Division. There is certainly still hope that the team can round into form and perhaps even be better equipped to succeed in the playoffs. The discourse for many fans is that the regular season success no longer matters for this team. This is a bit hyperbolic, as winning the division last season was still a welcome change. However, this team has a long road and a lot of work to do before warning the chance to prove that.
