Teetering near the bottom of the standings, the Leafs find themselves nearing a crossroads. Built solely for the here and now, the Leafs are an older team and do not have a first-round pick in each of the next two seasons. At the same time, the team has not looked nearly good enough to get any closer to their goal, perhaps even to make the playoffs.
Throw in the loss of a star asset in free agency, not to mention a horrid start to the season, and the organization is deflated. All of a sudden, a two-season-long disaster can be imagined, where the Leafs are bad and without the silver lining of a top talent to help them out. Of course, the Boston Bruins owning a top-five protected first-rounder this season makes the sting worse.
Naturally, all are hoping that the team can persevere, get healthier and battle out of their early-season struggles. After all, the team should be capable of a better defensive performance on effort and attention to detail alone. Regardless, the Leafs are on course for a catastrophic failure, looking entirely opposite to how they intended. It is a crisis of faith that reaches beyond even MLSE president Keith Pelley. Which way is up for the Leafs?
The Leafs beginnings
Perhaps it is reductive to so briefly examine the past in retrospect, but those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it. After committing to a full-scale rebuild, the Leafs quickly ascended after beginning the Auston Matthews era.
Things went well at first, as the Leafs made the playoffs in Matthews’ rookie season. Perhaps, though, it was too fast a rise. The Leafs started to become deadline buyers, not to mention huge free agent spenders, divesting from their future a bit more each season.
Perhaps the Leafs never truly built enough of a core to truly contend. Each season, the wheels spun as the team gave up assets to fill the same holes. There seemed to be a lack of patience. Perhaps the stars were anointed incorrectly, not as stars in their own right, but as being enough on their own.
Teams that picked first overall and took longer to make the playoffs—at the moment, the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks—were able to add more high-end picks, and an additional volume from deadline selling, to help build the snowball even further. There was certainly some bad luck along the way, and some of the Leafs picks not becoming core pieces hurt as well.
There were individual trades or moments that might have gone wrong. Twists and turns, injuries, and all the while, early playoff exits. With the Brendan Shanahan era officially over, and the team underperforming, the foundation is shaken. The core tenets might come into question as well.
Brad Treliving’s issues
In fairness to Brad Treliving, the decision to keep Mitch Marner after Kyle Dubas left falls on Shanahan. On one hand, Treliving was already able to win as many playoff series as Dubas and Lou Lamoriello combined. On the other, his hands are on the wheel as the Leafs spiral. The optics are not good.
His team is making him look foolish for dealing away his next two first-round picks, and getting a lot older. Time will tell how the young players end up, but it’s beginning to look like Fraser Minten would have helped this team’s timeline.
Right now, everything looks bad, but in some sense, Treliving’s aggressiveness might have been called for. After a near decade of stasis, perhaps one last big swing was required for what would be the core four’s last hurrah. At the same time, the team is getting older and no longer has many assets to improve the next two seasons. Acquiring cheap role players might have made sense to value during the flat cap era Leafs, but the prices for Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton seem regrettable.
Treliving left his former team, the Calgary Flames, in a similar bind. With a subpar team and a core falling apart, the Flames had a first-round pick in limbo. The margins with which to improve the team have gotten much smaller, and especially so over the next two seasons.
It is quite a mess. If the team cannot figure it out this season, Treliving will be in a very tough position going forward. The Leafs might even be forced into making a change. At the very least, it is not a vote of confidence that the question is arising at all. Can Treliving be trusted to navigate the path forward?
Berube on the hot seat?
The higher up, the slower things go. Pelley might be hesitant to move off of Treliving so quickly, after a single terrible season. The pressure would certainly exist, though, and there might be a quicker change at the coach. Pelley spoke quite highly of Craig Berube this offseason, but that is hardly enough to guarantee his employment.
While some might question whether Treliving is back next season, should things continue poorly, the leash might be even shorter for Berube. Though the roster has flaws on paper, the team has played beneath its potential as well.
An in-season coaching change would denote a certain level of desperation. Unfortunately, the sentiment is not far off. Former assistant coach Lane Lambert seems to have taken his strong defensive track record with him to the Seattle Kraken, perhaps a sign that coaching can make a big difference.
Impact Leafs
Auston Matthews remains top of mind. If the Leafs captain can regain his MVP form, it will solve a lot of issues. He is hardly alone, as several Leafs can be better than they have been so far. Max Domi, for example, always seems to become more effective as the season wears on.
Cowan’s importance
Easton Cowan is a huge piece of the puzzle. If the rookie is able to keep surprising, within or beyond this season, it will be a huge development for the Leafs. Without many top prospects or draft capital, the Leafs best prospects developing is all the more crucial. To remain competitive over the two-year stretch without a first-round pick, the Leafs will need their prospects to overachieve.
Cowan looking so promising as a potential core piece is vital, and likely two or three other prospects will have to join him over the stretch. Ben Danford and Victor Johansson both might be crucial as well. The Leafs will hope to scratch and claw their way into others that might help in the near future, but the path to success will be narrow.
Rebuild time?
Some have long since given up on the team as it stands, calling for a rebuild or retool. Unfortunately, without their next two first-round picks, there is not much benefit to losing. While teams do sell off assets for futures, the most valuable part of any build is a team’s own first-round pick. Landing a top ten or top five pick can alter a franchise, while the late first-round picks acquired from trades are far less likely to provide value, especially in the short term.
For this reason, it is extremely unlikely the Leafs move a true core piece, like Matthews, William Nylander, or Matthew Knies. For those on team tank, an absolute disaster season or a lottery win might be enough for the top-five protection on the 2026 first-round pick to kick in.
Retooling over rebuilding
Others propose a softer type of retool, focused on acquiring prospects that are closer to NHL action than outright draft picks. One might dream of acquiring a prospect like Fraser Minten, who is already proving to be a true middle-six centre for the Boston Bruins.
As appealing as that might seem, the scouting staff will need to be shrewd in identifying options. The Leafs are unlikely to pursue this method at all if they remain in the playoff hunt. Any fans hoping for this direction will need the Leafs to be bold, and likely for the team to be significantly behind a playoff pace come the trade deadline. This might involve trading players less embedded in the long-term core. Some older defencemen come to mind, and no blueliner should be untouchable.
For those still holding onto hope, there is a path as well. The Leafs could still forge a stronger identity with the current group. Perhaps this glimpse into the abyss can help inspire the team in a way they have not often been over the Matthews era. Having to scratch and claw to make the playoffs is not something that the Leafs have been used to over the past several seasons.
The offseason will allow some room for improvement, as the Leafs might be able to add some upgrades through free agency, for example. Still, with an aging roster, hope for internal growth dwindles. Instead, the constant aggressive approach, going all in on each season, might be too shortsighted a solution this time around. Perhaps it is time for the Leafs to start thinking longer term, even if the team returns to playoff form before the trade deadline. Perhaps that time has already passed.
